The 01/22 - 01/23 Storm thread (Could a snowstorm actully hit the Poconos?)

[BenedictGomez]

Normally I wouldn't start a snowstorm thread four days out, but normally literally every major global computer model isn't simultaneously showing a MASSIVE hit.

Current output projections (aka "Snow Porn") below.


EURO

Canuck

GFS

EDIT:

I guess I'll occasionally update these maps as newer versions come out, and add the UKIE if I can find it.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Bastardi's kid just put out a map of the expected timeline, which is always useful.

 

[Tin]

Trending south into a Blue Hill Mauler. Hopefully it comes a bit further north like 1996's blizz and helps out the Berks and southern areas. The Poconos will get the snow they desperately need to save what is left of their season.

I would not stress enough the issues with models and the time frame here. This energy is still around Hawaii. A lot could still happen and it could be an epic failure. Just to be safe I'm going to go wash my car...

 

[BenedictGomez]

Trending south into a Blue Hill Mauler. Hopefully it comes a bit further north like 1996's blizz and helps out the Berks and southern areas. The Poconos will get the snow they desperately need to save what is left of their season.

I would not stress enough the issues with models and the time frame here. This energy is still around Hawaii. A lot could still happen and it could be an epic failure. Just to be safe I'm going to go wash my car...

This looks pretty certain at this point. Only way it's a failure is if it shifts big to the east and snows over the fish.

 

[Rowsdower]

Wissahickon Ski Club gets the goods!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Looks like the new Euro came about 25 or 30 miles north. Folks will be skiing almost 4 FEET of fresh in WV were this to verify. lol

 

[BenedictGomez]

18z GFS gets "bigger", which I imagine could be interpreted as caving to the Euro.j


EDIT: Mean ensemble is out, so I replaced the GFS operational with it.

 

[abc]

I'm keeping my toes crossed (can't type with crossed fingers) that it'll come true. We need it.

The fact I stayed home this weekend and missing the small storm up north also have me itching for something in my backyard.

And the fact that my new skis came in and is ready to get its first day!

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm keeping my toes crossed (can't type with crossed fingers) that it'll come true. We need it.

It's coming true.

The energy isn't on-shore yet, so there could be a decent shift somewhere, but it's definitely going to snow, that's for sure.

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z GFS out. Similar to 18z GFS and more than 18z ensembles. Looks to have come another 15 or 20 miles north. Cant wait to see the ensembles.

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.


This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?

 

[mriceyman]

00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.


This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?

Ive been waiting a month and a half to get plowable snow here.. Figures first storm will be a banger


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[ss20]

Well, the 06z GFS came in a lot more south and a lot less precipitous. Jackpot moved north and east again... Northern NJ and Eastern PA in the bulls eye.

 

[fcksummer]

00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.


This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?

It's way too far south for my liking. Looks like I'll be doing more snow removal at work than actual snowboarding.

 

[dlague]

Go figure - decent storm seems to be approaching and VT, NH and ME ski areas may not get much out of it.

 

[abc]

This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?

It's still 4-5 days away. Past experience is 5 days for WHETHER there'll be a storm anywhere in the northeast and 3 days for WHERE.

So I'm watching it but not getting excited yet.

 

[catsup948]

00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.


This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?

If I skied in West Virginia I would. I'll get excited if the Berkshires get hit by a huge deformation band and we get 12 inches.

 

[BenedictGomez]

It's still 4-5 days away. Past experience is 5 days for WHETHER there'll be a storm anywhere in the northeast and 3 days for WHERE.

So I'm watching it but not getting excited yet.

You should be. This isn't going to be a Lucy yanking the football situation. I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.

 

[Rowsdower]

You should be. This isn't going to be a Lucy yanking the football situation. I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.

Bear Creek? Spring Mountain?

 

[abc]

I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.

My point exactly.

I'm watching. But until the picture gets a bit clear on the WHERE (and precisely when) part, I can't get all that excited just yet.

Put another way, I'm excited that I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, on natural snow. But my excitement level will be proportional to the condition that it would shape up to be. I guess having already 10 days under my belt, I'm a bit more jaded than others.