Where will LBO pop up?

[snowmonster]

My guess is he tries to get something in Maine. What about Mt. Abram (decent hill down the road from the River; that would be an in your face to ASC after getting passed over at SR) or Shawnee Peak (decent hill near enough to the Portland and Boston markets)? If we assume that LL Bean is still looking for a ski hill and wants to be in business with LBO, then these may be viable.

 

[snowman]

How about Ascutney? It's fairly troubled, has 1800ft of vert, and could easily get another 600ft if you were to expand to the summit (I have no idea if that would be allowed or not), and there is a ton of room around that mountain to expand. Water could be the only issue, as I don't see much nearby the area on google earth.

It was actually the B'east and Ascutney talk on here today that got me thinking about this. There are a lot of places out there that you could perhaps buy up and take to a "ho nuva level". No water would be a deal killer though. Easy water would be #1 on my shopping list. Vert? It's like a bar graph. Miles from civilization on the bottom, vert on the side, and a 45 degree line. If you're on top of a city you can get away with as little as 1200. If you're miles from nowhere, you better have a REAL 2000, or forget about it.

 

[snowman]

My guess is he tries to get something in Maine. What about Mt. Abram (decent hill down the road from the River; that would be an in your face to ASC after getting passed over at SR) or Shawnee Peak (decent hill near enough to the Portland and Boston markets)? If we assume that LL Bean is still looking for a ski hill and wants to be in business with LBO, then these may be viable.

Everybody seems to be feeling LBO in Maine. Perhaps they're right. I'm thinkin if I'm Les, and I had it to do all over again, I'd go for the gusto and set up somewhere that you can draw NYC and Boston folk to almost equally, and go for the visit crown.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

he just rented the recently vacated ASC retail warehouse in Bethel for his golf business. Maybe he'll turn that into his campaign headquarters for a run at govenor of ME.

 

[threecy]

Berkshire? Where we're talking about it today? They look like they have some peaks around them you could expand onto?

I find it very unlikely that Les Otten would buy out Berkshire East...B-East was recently fully purchased by the family that had previously been part owners/manager for the past 30 years. There're currently nearly 1000 acres including a higher peak behind it.

 

[tjf67]

big squaw?
saddleback investment?


I bet he stays in maine. lots of room for development still.

Big Squaw. I used to go there with the family a few years back. I could never rememeber the name of the place. That place is cool. I dont rememebr much vert though.
You could eat lunch in the lodge for like 4 bucks.

the townhouse donw the road on the left is where I used to stay

 

[deadheadskier]

How about Ascutney? It's fairly troubled, has 1800ft of vert, and could easily get another 600ft if you were to expand to the summit (I have no idea if that would be allowed or not), and there is a ton of room around that mountain to expand. Water could be the only issue, as I don't see much nearby the area on google earth.

Ascutney would be perfect IF there were expansion possibilities, but unfortunately it will never happen. I remember skiing Okemo as a kid and always staring over the valley at Ascutney in awe and thinking of the possibilities. Unfortunately, because it's the only true Mondadnock in Vermont, it will never see much development. Environmentalists are fiercely protective of it's summit and western side.

As I said in the thread about it, it truly has mega-resort potential that will never be realized. It's access would be the best of any resort in VT and it's only 2 to 3 miles from the Conneticut, so realistically it could have vast amounts of water to draw on for snowmaking.

 

[deadheadskier]

Back on topic

Personally, I think the odds are LONG that Les gets involved in another skiing venture in New England in the next three years if ever. With all the recent transactions, the only way I see him getting in again is if someone was looking to quickly 'flip' a resort. Maybe that will be the case with Killington and he'll be able to go back and finish what he started.

All of the viable big time resorts in New England either have long term current serious owners or have recently changed hands. I really don't see any potential for the little guys out there to become big guys. Magic could if it had more water. I for one, am glad it does not.

I thought his attempt at purchasing SR, SL or both last winter was his last true shot at it for a while.

 

[mountainman]

I hope nowhere. The Jacka__ put this industry back about 20 years. He did have a good plan at first, but he had a bunch of Jacka__ putting it together for him. When Warren Cook baled the writing was on the wall then. He had to much management. Ski areas are like farms you run with what you got if demand calls for more you increase. Does not take a mental giant to run a resort. A person who runs a good farm can run a ski area. Stay away LBO.

 

[snowman]

Back on topic

Personally, I think the odds are LONG that Les gets involved in another skiing venture in New England in the next three years if ever. With all the recent transactions, the only way I see him getting in again is if someone was looking to quickly 'flip' a resort. Maybe that will be the case with Killington and he'll be able to go back and finish what he started.

All of the viable big time resorts in New England either have long term current serious owners or have recently changed hands. I really don't see any potential for the little guys out there to become big guys. Magic could if it had more water. I for one, am glad it does not.

I thought his attempt at purchasing SR, SL or both last winter was his last true shot at it for a while.

I can really see him starting from scratch again with something crappy or non-existent. I can't see him buying something built out. I could see him buying Sunday River back just because, but another already mega resort? Where's the challenge? He's more of a resort builder, not a resort operator. I can see him buying something crappy (but big in land mass) for 5 mil or so, dumping 10-20 mil into it in round one and taking what it makes him to expand year after year... just like he did with the River.

 

[marcski]

I can really see him starting from scratch again with something crappy or non-existent. I can't see him buying something built out. I could see him buying Sunday River back just because, but another already mega resort? Where's the challenge? He's more of a resort builder, not a resort operator. I can see him buying something crappy (but big in land mass) for 5 mil or so, dumping 10-20 mil into it in round one and taking what it makes him to expand year after year... just like he did with the River.

He'd have to have an awful lot of money and then some if he's going to buy the river from Boyne. I don't see that happening at all!

 

[snowman]

He'd have to have an awful lot of money and then some if he's going to buy the river from Boyne. I don't see that happening at all!

He ALREADY tried to buy the River AND the Loaf this summer. His bid was supposedly higher. Like all almost all the other ASC transactions, they took the lower bid?!?!? I have no idea why they keep doing that. It's like kids fighting over toys. One would have though the profiteering nature of Oak Hill would have brought an end to that. They keep ending up in law suits for taking the lower bids. The SR ship has sailed for a while atleast. That is why I see him saying F it and building something new from scratch or almost scratch.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

did someone just fart or is snowman talking out his a$$ again? How many lawsuits is ASC involved in now, or have they been involved in for "taking the lower bid"?

 

[snowman]

did someone just fart or is snowman talking out his a$$ again? How many lawsuits is ASC involved in now, or have they been involved in for "taking the lower bid"?

They're currently involved in a suit over the Canyons, and had previously been in suits over Steamboat, Heavenly, and possibly Sugarbush? to the best of my knowledge. Almost every time they go to sell a hill there's some sort of fiasco. Like everything else in life, not everyone sues, and only some of the suit worthy fiascos have gone to court.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

They're currently involved in a suit over the Canyons, and had previously been in suits over Steamboat, Heavenly, and possibly Sugarbush? to the best of my knowledge. Almost every time they go to sell a hill there's some sort of fiasco. Like everything else in life, not everyone sues, and only some of the suit worthy fiascos have gone to court.

The litigation involving the canyons has more to do with Vail Resorts, Penninsula, and Talisker than ASC. The first three were working on a deal together...for 90 mill, then Penninsula backed out and the deal came apart, Talisker went back to ASC on their own with a deal for 100 mil...10mil higher than the original Vail group deal. Only after ASC accepted the 100 mil deal with Talisker and went public with the letter of intent did Vail come back and offer up another 10 mil above the Talisker deal. Its not even a lawsuit alleging damages, its a hearing for a preliminary injunction. Vail is the shady character in the whole canyons deal, not ASC. The Steamboat litigation with the Muellers was because ASC backed out of the deal, not because they took a lower bid, but to sell Heavanly instead...they hung on to Steamboat for 5years, put pretty much no capital into it and then sold it for about TRIPLE what the Muellers were going to pay...and Vail offered more money for Heavenly than they were going to get for Steamboat; 110m vs 90m. Neither one of these issues was because they took the lower bid, more like the better offer. I don't recall any litigation on the Bush sale. As far as the LBO deal...word on the street in Bethel is that the deal with Boyne/CNL was picked because it had the highest probability of closing. But don't take my word for it, go to peaks.com and read for yourself...please, work on getting the facts before you post...for your own sake as well as everyone elses.

 

[snowman]

Ok, so, out of maybe 10 deals ASC has done, 40% of them have ended up in court, and atleast 60% of them have been messy in one way or another. That's the point. I don't think I've heard of any other law suits on a ski resort sale and ASC has had several in just 10 deals.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

oh, my bad, I thought you said

Like all almost all the other ASC transactions, they took the lower bid?!?!?..

They keep ending up in law suits for taking the lower bids..

Must be my reading comprehension problems acting up again.:blink:

 

[marcski]

Who is this snowman and where did he come from? I think he's melting, like Frosty come spring.

 

[deadheadskier]

I can really see him starting from scratch again with something crappy or non-existent. I can't see him buying something built out. I could see him buying Sunday River back just because, but another already mega resort? Where's the challenge? He's more of a resort builder, not a resort operator. I can see him buying something crappy (but big in land mass) for 5 mil or so, dumping 10-20 mil into it in round one and taking what it makes him to expand year after year... just like he did with the River.

The likelyhood of Boyne flipping SR seems quite low. Sugarloaf maybe depending on how it does financial, but SR seems doubtful as it has a much higher profit potential due to location.

I don't see Les taking on something 'crappy' unless it has huge potential. Big Squaw might be a good fit, but I don't know how much developable land it has or if it even makes sense due to it's location. I don't think the market could support a third middle of no where resort in addition to Saddleback and Sugarloaf.

Shawnee Peak would be an interesting option. It's short on verticle and natural snow, but could realistically triple in size on it's four mile long ridgeline. It actually has some pretty steep pitches on the undeveloped parts and if it offered more variaty, I could see it stealing quite a bit of SR's clientele as it's a solid hour closer to metro areas. The major benefit to the place is an ENDLESS supply of water for snowmaking.

The reason I suggest Killington is that with the Pico connect, there is still room for considerable development.

It just seems right now that the likelyhood of ski resort ownership transfers for all the major resorts in New England is quite low due to the recent slew of transactions and steady ownership at the areas that have not changed hands.

A non-existent mountain would be great and obviously the most exciting. Unfortunately, even though there are many HUGE mountains in New England that don't have ski area development, almost all of them fall in National or State Forest land and I have a hard time envisioning land being leased for new ski resort development when so much of the land that is already leased and developed is under utilized. This is a good topic for a new thread though

 

[threecy]

Shawnee Peak would be an interesting option. It's short on verticle and natural snow, but could realistically triple in size on it's four mile long ridgeline.

They can't touch most of that land - a considerable amount of it has been put into protection. Shawnee still does own a decent sized chunk of land to the west of the existing area, but if I recall, their plot didn't really lend itself to increased vertical.