The ALTERRA SUCKS Thread

[NYDB]

Awl Dose PeePull moVed to Teh SahlT LayK in Teh Lahst FoRe YearZ!

So your position is that none, or substantially less, of those people would be skiing without the IKON pass? Or mega passes in general?

Outside of crowding at solitude, My estimate would be 85% population growth / 15% mega passes causing crowding.

'I mOvEd To UtAh 25 YeArS ToO LaTe'

 

[NYDB]

SPOILER ALERT: Their "cheap skiing" IS going to go away, just not from people's criticism, but via IKON & EPIC price increases which will be coming once each company is satisfied with its scale. I predict we'll see a pretty big EPIC increase this year bigger than normal, if not, certainly next year. That frog's gonna' get boiled once these companies feel it's safe to turn the h2o to 212 degrees fahrenheit. And Vail Resorts is definitely motivated to turn up the temperature.

View attachment 61403

Awesome. Raise the Pass prices. Double It. Its a premium product offered at a discount.

It would help the indy's as well.

 

[EPB]

It's very "strange" to deny IKON & EPIC aren't greatly contributing to crowding, in face of all the facts, all the industry peeps stating otherwise, all the articles written to such effect, and tangentially even the companies themselves by their own mitigating action attempts. It's as if they think their "cheap skiing" is going to go away if enough people simply point out the obvious.

SPOILER ALERT: Their "cheap skiing" IS going to go away, just not from people's criticism, but via IKON & EPIC price increases which will be coming once each company is satisfied with its scale. I predict we'll see a pretty big EPIC increase this year bigger than normal, if not, certainly next year. That frog's gonna' get boiled once these companies feel it's safe to turn the h2o to 212 degrees fahrenheit. And Vail Resorts is definitely motivated to turn up the temperature.

View attachment 61403

... not to mention it's clear that, on average, the number of members on this site living in the east that take a trip out west (and the number of days/trips they spend out west) have gone up since the advent of the super passes. That's not demographic. I haven't taken a trip without on one of them since they came on the scene. The only day I've taken out west not on my super pass since they came out was a Deer Valley day 7+ years ago with my dad when I was on Epic.

They'll certainly keep raising prices well above inflation until they hit material resistance from the market. When you can't figure out how to keep too many people from showing up to your properties, raising prices will do the trick. It sounds like Boyne/Alterra has done this in more targeted ways by limiting days at Crystal (and making unlimited passes very expensive). Epic and Ikon have reportedly solved the MLK crowding problems with blackouts/tiering. I will be curious to see how it happens, but it will get more expensive and/or more restrictive in the next few years.

 

[EPB]

Awesome. Raise the Pass prices. Double It. Its a premium product offered at a discount.

It would help the indy's as well.

Industry-wide, the Epic/Ikon land grab has hurt skier visits (and presumably pass pricing) everywhere else, but my hope is that this gets unwound to a large degree for this reason.

 

[4aprice]

It's very "strange" to deny IKON & EPIC aren't greatly contributing to crowding, in face of all the facts, all the industry peeps stating otherwise, all the articles written to such effect, and tangentially even the companies themselves by their own mitigating action attempts. It's as if they think their "cheap skiing" is going to go away if enough people simply point out the obvious.

SPOILER ALERT: Their "cheap skiing" IS going to go away, just not from people's criticism, but via IKON & EPIC price increases which will be coming once each company is satisfied with its scale. I predict we'll see a pretty big EPIC increase this year bigger than normal, if not, certainly next year. That frog's gonna' get boiled once these companies feel it's safe to turn the h2o to 212 degrees fahrenheit. And Vail Resorts is definitely motivated to turn up the temperature.

View attachment 61403

It will be interesting to see, however, for me I'm pretty much stuck with Ikon as it now serves as Winter Park's season pass. (bring back the Rocky Mountain Super Pass?). The convenience factor of having 3 major resorts and 1 additional "ski area" (A Basin) within easy driving distance from our condo is still probably worth more then the price bump I will have to pay. I do want to do the 4 Epic areas at some point too so I'll be watching that

 

[kingslug]

Alterra ain't the only one...

Powder Mountain replaces season pass limit with price increases

Powder Mountain ski resort released season tickets Wednesday, removing many discount groups, including free passes for seniors 75 and up, while increasing prices.

www.ksl.com

 

[thetrailboss]

Alterra ain't the only one...

Powder Mountain replaces season pass limit with price increases

Powder Mountain ski resort released season tickets Wednesday, removing many discount groups, including free passes for seniors 75 and up, while increasing prices.

www.ksl.com

Dynamic pricing sucks. Heaven forbid if Reed Hastings “leaves money on the table” if folks buy a pass at a set affordable rate.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

What's Behind KSL's $3 Billion "Continuation Vehicle" for Alterra? - Ski Area Management

SAM Magazine—Denver, Feb. 2, 2024—KSL Capital Partners (KSL) closed a 'single-asset continuation vehicle' for Alterra Mountain Company in late January, with total commitments of more than $3 billion, KSL said in a press release. What it didn't say, and what many in the industry are speculating...

www.saminfo.com

These deals get done without operating statistics reaching the public. At minimum, the winning PE investors would have interviewed management several times, hired consultants to verify figures and business prospects are solid, done their own independent homework, etc. before this deal got done. If you think that Alterra didn't demonstrate skier visit growth and above average ability to generate and grow revenue/customer higher then industry averages, you're dreaming. It's been a very challenging environment for CVs to get done in the last two years. The fact it did happen makes it even more unlikely than usual that Alterra's growth didn't stand up to scrutiny.

It's been strange to watch a cohort of Alterra fanboys (and girls) bend over backwards to defend the wall for KSL - just like the Epic loyalists. It at least does my heart good to see that Alterra seems to deservedly have a better ratio of advocates to detractors than Vail. Both parties of the quasi duopoly obviously share part of the blame for crowding, but Alterra seems to do a much better job with the on mountain product and communicating with guests - at least in the east

That's not very compelling. I'm sure that Alterra has grabbed its fair share of growth in skier visits that the market as a whole has experienced in recent years, but they've also de-risked the P&L in that time by moving to a subscription model that is largely weather agnostic. Independent ski mountains get bought and sold at increased valuations all the time despite not having the tail wind of a megapass behind them. I'll fully stipulate that it's clear that IKON and EPIC have contributed to the real/perceived crowding on certain mountains, but I'd argue that has been situational and largely in areas experiencing high growth as it is.

What is truly rich is seeing the protestations from recent transplants to those very same markets that SURELY people like them aren’t contributing to perceived crowding. Just like the people in traffic on the highway who complain about it - you ARE the traffic. Try asking a local from before 2002 how he feels about your type.

The prophecies of continued price increases until the market says "no" are on point. Then we'll see just how locked in people are. Indies largely seem to be thriving, in contrast to the doom and gloom espoused in this thread. Further mega pass price increases can only be a wind in their sails.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Outside of crowding at solitude, My estimate would be 85% population growth / 15% mega passes causing crowding.

Your "outside of crowding at Solitude" statement is one that wishes to have it both ways. Either these passes can cause crowding or they don't.

Here you're admitting that they do. Thanks for coming around.

Not to mention this obviously isn't a Utah-specific problem. The IKON/EPIC crowding is occurring wherever these passes exist in concert with either an established population base (Stevens Pass, Solitude, Crystal Mountain) or a "destination resort" (Jackson Hole, Vail, Park City) area.

 

[BenedictGomez]

it's clear that, on average, the number of members on this site living in the east that take a trip out west (and the number of days/trips they spend out west) have gone up since the advent of the super passes. That's not demographic. I haven't taken a trip without on one of them since they came on the scene.

Including a few who persist in claiming mega passes don't cause crowding (whilst taking mega-pass trips they otherwise wouldn't be taking).

And it doesn't have to be "western"; Stowe is now an unrecognizable sh*tshow. It wasn't like that pre-EPIC, but now everyone & their third cousin skis there.

Secondary point, related to all the labor "problems" you hear about - mega passes contribute to labor problems too. You know why I worked at Stowe for years? Because I couldn't afford the bougie pass, I could only afford lift tics. Most of us were the same. Now? No way in hell 20-something me works at Stowe, I'd just buy an EPIC pass.

 

[4aprice]

Alterra ain't the only one...

Powder Mountain replaces season pass limit with price increases

Powder Mountain ski resort released season tickets Wednesday, removing many discount groups, including free passes for seniors 75 and up, while increasing prices.

www.ksl.com

However, to be fair, I did see that Indy Pass is keeping their price the same.

 

[EPB]

That's not very compelling. I'm sure that Alterra has grabbed its fair share of growth in skier visits that the market as a whole has experienced in recent years, but they've also de-risked the P&L in that time by moving to a subscription model that is largely weather agnostic. Independent ski mountains get bought and sold at increased valuations all the time despite not having the tail wind of a megapass behind them. I'll fully stipulate that it's clear that IKON and EPIC have contributed to the real/perceived crowding on certain mountains, but I'd argue that has been situational and largely in areas experiencing high growth as it is.

Just some useful context for you: The de-risked P&L is an important industry trend, but it's already baked into the cake. It's an important tool, but the new investors won't be able to unlock extra value from its implementation - the last cohort did. While riding trends is fine, truly great businesses drive growth above and beyond industry averages. That's what's expected in a "trophy" asset that finds it's way into a CV.

The overwhelming anecdotal evidence isn't compelling to you because you don't want it to be. You're now in a place of arguing that not only on the ground testimony (guests, employees, media, etc.) are wrong, but that the investor group that just came in didn't do their basic homework either. I think you're a Sugarbush guy if memory serves. It sounds like SB has been reasonably well insulated from the Ikon masses. Be grateful.

What is truly rich is seeing the protestations from recent transplants to those very same markets that SURELY people like them aren’t contributing to perceived crowding. Just like the people in traffic on the highway who complain about it - you ARE the traffic. Try asking a local from before 2002 how he feels about your type.

It seems like we're in agreement here. I have no sympathy for locals or second home owners, so I'm with you there. These people rent or own property in proximity to resorts. They're not control investors - they're customers. Their opinion matters as much as they spend at said resort(s). This is coming from someone who grew up with a second home in the mountains, whose only sibling lives in a ski town, and who is in the phase of life to scout out places of their own. Realistic expectations are a crucial ingredient to life satisfaction.

The prophecies of continued price increases until the market says "no" are on point. Then we'll see just how locked in people are. Indies largely seem to be thriving, in contrast to the doom and gloom espoused in this thread. Further mega pass price increases can only be a wind in their sails.

If you saw my reply to NYDB, you'd see we're in alignment here on the future.

I know you want someone else to do the work, but a cursory look at publicly available skier visit trends, attempting to strip out Epic/Ikon, makes it clear there isn't any real growth in skier visits to go around to the rest of the industry, if any. If you assume the Indy Pass resorts are growing, (which is reasonable given 1: they'd need to show data to their impressive number of new partners that being part of Indy Pass is to each resort's benefit; and 2: resort retention on the pass seems very strong), growth in the remaining areas could very well be negative. I suspect this comes from regions we may never visit, but it's concerning nonetheless.

 

[thetrailboss]

... not to mention it's clear that, on average, the number of members on this site living in the east that take a trip out west (and the number of days/trips they spend out west) have gone up since the advent of the super passes. That's not demographic. I haven't taken a trip without on one of them since they came on the scene. The only day I've taken out west not on my super pass since they came out was a Deer Valley day 7+ years ago with my dad when I was on Epic.

They'll certainly keep raising prices well above inflation until they hit material resistance from the market. When you can't figure out how to keep too many people from showing up to your properties, raising prices will do the trick. It sounds like Boyne/Alterra has done this in more targeted ways by limiting days at Crystal (and making unlimited passes very expensive). Epic and Ikon have reportedly solved the MLK crowding problems with blackouts/tiering. I will be curious to see how it happens, but it will get more expensive and/or more restrictive in the next few years.

Boyne sold Crystal a long time ago. Initially, the family sold it to John who then sold it to Alterra shortly thereafter. Stephen and company were not at all happy.

Alterra indeed created massive crowding problems with the IKON at this resort that were well reported in the media. They made some pretty radical changes as to access. Including heavily increasing the season pass price and restricting IKON access.

 

[mbedle]

Including a few who persist in claiming mega passes don't cause crowding (whilst taking mega-pass trips they otherwise wouldn't be taking).

And it doesn't have to be "western"; Stowe is now an unrecognizable sh*tshow. It wasn't like that pre-EPIC, but now everyone & their third cousin skis there.

Secondary point, related to all the labor "problems" you hear about - mega passes contribute to labor problems too. You know why I worked at Stowe for years? Because I couldn't afford the bougie pass, I could only afford lift tics. Most of us were the same. Now? No way in hell 20-something me works at Stowe, I'd just buy an EPIC pass.

Saying Stowe is a Sh*tshow is an understatement.... Its turned into a dump on the Mansfield side. I just about puked using that bathroom at Mansfield last week. They cut back on trail openings to the point they should just let the front four grow back in.

 

[cdskier]

Saying Stowe is a Sh*tshow is an understatement.... Its turned into a dump on the Mansfield side. I just about puked using that bathroom at Mansfield last week. They cut back on trail openings to the point they should just let the front four grow back in.

Huh? By all accounts here from a couple other Stowe regulars in the Stowe thread earlier this season, they were very happy this year with a much more lenient rope dropping policy this season. Did that change?

 

[mbedle]

Huh? By all accounts here from a couple other Stowe regulars in the Stowe thread earlier this season, they were very happy this year with a much more lenient rope dropping policy this season. Did that change?

Yes, earlier in the season they did open up a lot of those trails (November - December). But since January, its been a different story. Also, I am talking over the entire time Vail has owned Stowe. It is nowhere near as liberal as it was back when the AIG owned it.

 

[thetrailboss]

Saying Stowe is a Sh*tshow is an understatement.... Its turned into a dump on the Mansfield side. I just about puked using that bathroom at Mansfield last week. They cut back on trail openings to the point they should just let the front four grow back in.

"Front Four? What is that? I am renamed them E-P-I-C!"

"And by the way, it is ALMOST time to RENEW YOUR EPIC Pass!!!! My operators, in India, are standing by!"

 

[mbedle]

"Front Four? What is that? I am renamed them E-P-I-C!"

"And by the way, it is ALMOST time to RENEW YOUR EPIC Pass!!!! My operators, in India, are standing by!"

OMG - love it.

 

[kingslug]

I'm at Stowe a lot and since the new manager took over they have opened the front 4 way more than last year. Even when they are not in prime condition. Wednesday they were all open...
I see change for the better....
Even saw national drop in opened a few weeks ago...thought that was closed permanently.
I will miss the place as there are areas I never got to poke around in.
But it made me a much better tree skier.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

Just some useful context for you: The de-risked P&L is an important industry trend, but it's already baked into the cake. It's an important tool, but the new investors won't be able to unlock extra value from its implementation - the last cohort did. While riding trends is fine, truly great businesses drive growth above and beyond industry averages. That's what's expected in a "trophy" asset that finds it's way into a CV.

I think we are in violent agreement on 90% of this issue, but I'm not tracking here. The higher valuations achieved in this re-financing were precisely BECAUSE of the re-risked P&L. The shift to IKON took place during the lifetime of the original vehicle, so it's natural that the people who benefited were the investors who took the risk to stand up Alterra w/o IKON having been proven. The new investors enjoy the benefit of a much more secure and predictable P&L.

The overwhelming anecdotal evidence isn't compelling to you because you don't want it to be. You're now in a place of arguing that not only on the ground testimony (guests, employees, media, etc.) are wrong, but that the investor group that just came in didn't do their basic homework either. I think you're a Sugarbush guy if memory serves. It sounds like SB has been reasonably well insulated from the Ikon masses. Be grateful.

This couldn't be further from the case, as I precisely stipulated further down in my post. I'm pushing back against the comically simplistic narrative from some that mega passes are responsible for all/substantially all of the crowding on hills near mountain communities that have seen massive population growth for decades. FWIW, used to be a SB guy. Currently a Mammoth guy and haven't noticed much of a difference there either tbh

I know you want someone else to do the work, but a cursory look at publicly available skier visit trends, attempting to strip out Epic/Ikon, makes it clear there isn't any real growth in skier visits to go around to the rest of the industry, if any. If you assume the Indy Pass resorts are growing, (which is reasonable given 1: they'd need to show data to their impressive number of new partners that being part of Indy Pass is to each resort's benefit; and 2: resort retention on the pass seems very strong), growth in the remaining areas could very well be negative. I suspect this comes from regions we may never visit, but it's concerning nonetheless.

So asking people to support their declared hypotheses is "wanting someone else to do the work"? No. Someone said something over the top, unsupported by any evidence, and I asked them to prove it. It's that simple. Your references to backing out reported data from EPKON to get to underlying change in skier visits among indies is the first attempt I've seen at same.