crude oil prices going down

[ski_resort_observer]

As predicted the price of crude oil is headed downward. Amid all the screaming about getting close to the $100 fact last week the fact that today options(futures) expire and since the price is in the mid $90's there would be alot of selling, not much buying = price goes down. The price is below $92 at the moment and heading lower.

What does this mean for the price at the pump is that it shouldn't go up and might go lower. Crude oil and unleaded gas are two separately traded commodities. While crude has spiked up 25+% in the last month or so, gas at the pump has only risen about 5-8%. Contrary to this belief Energy Information Administration Administrator Guy Caruso predicted yesterday gas prices will rise another 20 cents a gallon by December to catch up with oil.

It all about the supply side of the supply/demand ration. Demand has been strong for a long time so it's the supply side of things that changes. The delivery system(pipelines, refineries) has disruptions that can spike the price. Despite the coming of winter and increased heating oil usage most the so called experts are bearish on the price of crude in the next few months and the options market is reflecting that forecast. A good thing for the consumer. It also announced today that demand is decreasing due to the high price as of late.

My point is that if the prices at the pump stablize and even goes down abit I think that will help the ski resort business. Among all the negetive stuff going on with our economy I like focusing on how it will effect the sport we all love. This could be a positive that was a big negetive just a week ago.

Can the price of crude spike up due to supply disruptions, absolutely. OPEC announced just a minute ago that they will not be increasing the supply. Pres Bush recently ordered that oil be pumped into the federal reserve slightly decreasing supply were also temporary negs.

Bottomline.......accept the current prices at the pump, chances are that they won't go up, might come down. Might go up some in December if the EIA is right but hopefully will go down after that. Build that in your ski trip budget, go skiing. See ya there.

Will cteni disagree with me, probably. Could I be wrong...for sure. I guess seeing the price of crude heading down has given me an optomistic outlook today.

 

[loafer89]

All I know is that we paid $560 to fill up our oil tank at home for heating a few weeks ago and that is mucho expensive even at a reasonable price of $2.62 a gallon. We have a large fireplace and I have already burned through 1/4 of a cord of wood heating the house which we plan to use to cut down on heating expenses this winter.

At least I managed to get gas a $2.96 yesterday in Brattleboro to save some money on the ski trip and the ride back home.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

All I know is that we paid $560 to fill up our oil tank at home for heating a few weeks ago and that is mucho expensive even at a reasonable price of $2.62 a gallon. We have a large fireplace and I have already burned through 1/4 of a cord of wood heating the house which we plan to use to cut down on heating expenses this winter.

At least I managed to get gas a $2.96 yesterday in Brattleboro to save some money on the ski trip and the ride back home.

If your talking about an open fireplace, using it to heat your house is a big negetive. Sure it heats the place while it's buring but most of the heat actually goes up the chimney and while your sleeping and the fire has burned down, alot more of the heat in the house is headed up the chimney. You might as well leave the back door wide open. Same effect. Putting in well sealed glass doors in front can help alot but a fireplace is a big energy loser heatwise.

 

[loafer89]

If your talking about an open fireplace, using it to heat your house is a big negetive. Sure it heats the place while it's buring but most of the heat actually goes up the chimney and while your sleeping and the fire has burned down, alot more of the heat in the house is headed up the chimney. You might as well leave the back door wide open. Same effect. Putting in well sealed glass doors in front can help alot but a fireplace is a big energy loser heatwise.

It's a sealed glass fireplace with a brick face / brick chimmney / brick floor that heats up really well and for up to 24 hours after the fireplace is out through radiant heat. I can heat the downstairs to 75-80F while it's going.

 

[bigbog]

.......

......anything to discourage alternative fuels development!
If anyone in this country, CONSERVATIVE or adult, is waiting for some effort towards energy alternatives to oil, we gotta wait till the next UN-Conservative president that's not in the pocket of Big Oil gets into office.....for this nation to stop invading countries because their daddy got threatened by his lifelong buddy....and get back to meaningful priorities.
Does anyone seriously consider all the previous to be un-political...? Pullleeeeze. Carter had us turning down our thermostats as a way to change the wealthy lifestyles( )....followed by Reagan tossing every kind of emissions standard out the window totally.

 

[ctenidae]

Will cteni disagree with me, probably. Could I be wrong...for sure. I guess seeing the price of crude heading down has given me an optomistic outlook today.

Surprisingly, I only disagree a bit
There's a huge psychological barrier at $100 (that will quickly fade away once it's broken), so I think we'll see some flirting with it for a while. Option expiration day has something to do with current movements, but in teh end, up is teh only way for the price to go, unless economics is wrong and the Saudis suddenly find new oilfields like Gawhar and Abqaiq (unfortunately, after 40 years of looking, they haven't). Demand for oil is rising, and supply is level, if not falling. Certainly not much room for increased production, either at the wellheads or refineries.

Gas hasn't tracked with oil lately, which seems odd, since suppliers are essentially taking slimmer margins, but I doubt it's for altruistic reasons. Recent surveys put consumer's "pain point" at about $3.50/gallon, a price suppliers don't want to see because then demand drops. Most of what I see indicates most alternatives become feasible at about $4, though they don't need to be at that price for long once production and distribution ramp up. Oil companies don't, naturally, want alternatives in place, so thinner margins is better than no margins.

I think you're right in gas prices staying around where they are through winter- unless it suddneny gets brutely cold and nasty or there is some supply disruption. The SPR is getting boosted right now because it can be with little effect on overall pricing. That won't last. High energy prices are going to start impacting the economy soon- they have to, eventually. Coupled with the housing market, that could lead to a mighty thin Christmas for retailers, and that makes no one happy.

Unless gas prices get to $5 or $6, it won't affect my skiing plans much, if at all. In fact, I wouldn't mind, shortsightedly, since that means fewer SUVs packed with families taking up the good parking spots.:lol:

 

[hammer]

Recent surveys put consumer's "pain point" at about $3.50/gallon, a price suppliers don't want to see because then demand drops.

I wonder how much that "pain point" has gone up in the past few years...:roll:

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

That's good news...For me to drive to Mount Snow I used 10 gallons of gas or about $30+...I figure that as long as gas stays below $8 per gallon, it won't affect my skiing much..

 

[bvibert]

That's good news...For me to drive to Mount Snow I used 10 gallons of gas or about $30+...I figure that as long as gas stays below $8 per gallon, it won't affect my skiing much..

10 gallons both ways or one way?

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

10 gallons both ways or one way?

One way..approximately 280 miles..

 

[ctenidae]

Gas is up 13 cnets over the past 2 weeks. Guess it's tracking oil again...