EVs - New Hampshire gets it right

[BodeMiller1]

I liked it when Vanguard of Janus said there is not advantage to managed Index Stock Funds. Even though it was not in their best interest.

Anyone remember the Janice Jet phone line. I could find out my balances in a New York minute.

Meanwhile I had my picture on the front page of The Boston Globe Business Section, selling bank reports to people.

Including the Banks themselves. How is my S & L? Kooks like you're not going to make it.

Only worked there for a year or so.

Meow

VERIBANC - Trust with Verification

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[Harvey]

if a 25-year-old invested $1,000 per year over 40 years

What about investing 4500 per year in the stock market for 40 years?

Median HHI $75000
6.2% of 75000 ~ $4500

 

[BenedictGomez]

Then provide your source for this opinion. I provided polling data that doesn't jive with your view.

This newest Gallup poll of the issue shows 2/3 of Americans now say Social Security will either not be a source available for them at all or will be a "minor" portion of their retirement.

That is obviously not "happiness", "satisfaction" or "confidence" in the Social Security program; at all. It's actually even worse than I suspected, but it's been this way for a while though, most of my adult life. The last time I remember people thinking Social Security was a good thing was probably the 1980s or early 90s.


This poll

 

[BenedictGomez]

What about investing 4500 per year in the stock market for 40 years?

Median HHI $75000
6.2% of 75000 ~ $4500

Without doing the math you'd be a millionaire. Especially assuming you had a DRIP plan in place.

 

[Harvey]

Without doing the math you'd be a millionaire. Especially assuming you had a DRIP plan in place.

And if you get 3000 a month from social and you live 30 years (big if) you'd get million, although it would be future (less valuable) dollars. Does SS go up with COLA?

 

[Harvey]

This newest Gallup poll of the issue shows 2/3 of Americans now say Social Security will either not be a source available for them at all or will be a "minor" portion of their retirement.

That is obviously not "happiness", "satisfaction" or "confidence" in the Social Security program; at all. It's actually even worse than I suspected, but it's been this way for a while though, most of my adult life. The last time I remember people thinking Social Security was a good thing was probably the 1980s or early 90s.

View attachment 59429
This poll

I don't have the brain power to explain it, but at some level you know that people want it to be solvent because they like it and want it.

 

[kbroderick]

And if you get 3000 a month from social and you live 30 years (big if) you'd get million, although it would be future (less valuable) dollars. Does SS go up with COLA?

Yes, SS gets COLA.

If you want to talk about "not getting what you paid in", look at Maine teachers (I think other public sector employees as well)--if you work for a time elsewhere and then take one of those jobs, you contribute to Maine PERS in lieu of SS, but then you get nothing from SS even if you paid in for decades before taking the Maine public sector job.

 

[Harvey]

Yes, SS gets COLA.

So the amount you get in your first check goes up each year?

ETA: a guy who is retiring next year should probably know this stuff. I'm thinking I wait until 70.

 

[Former Sunday Rivah Rat]

Growth of 10K last 10 years (those years have been very good returns) 10k grows to 37k in 10 years, this cannot be expected consistently:

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[deadheadskier]

This newest Gallup poll of the issue shows 2/3 of Americans now say Social Security will either not be a source available for them at all or will be a "minor" portion of their retirement.

That is obviously not "happiness", "satisfaction" or "confidence" in the Social Security program; at all. It's actually even worse than I suspected, but it's been this way for a while though, most of my adult life. The last time I remember people thinking Social Security was a good thing was probably the 1980s or early 90s.

View attachment 59429
This poll

BG, that poll may have been in the link I shared. There were several. They all had that same look. Pretty flat. Meaning opinions relatively unchanged over the past twenty years. Maybe I misunderstood you, but I read your opinion as American views on SS are rapidly worsening. Not recently is what I'm saying.

I mean sure, opinions were higher on SS in the 80s. Opinions were higher on everything back then. And the main reason isn't political or economic, it's because society wasn't arguing and raging at each other online all the time. I know, guilty as charged.

 

[1dog]

BG, that poll may have been in the link I shared. There were several. They all had that same look. Pretty flat. Meaning opinions relatively unchanged over the past twenty years. Maybe I misunderstood you, but I read your opinion as American views on SS are rapidly worsening. Not recently is what I'm saying.

I mean sure, opinions were higher on SS in the 80s. Opinions were higher on everything back then. And the main reason isn't political or economic, it's because society wasn't arguing and raging at each other online all the time. I know, guilty as charged.

Does it matter what people think if the truth is, it’s not solvent, but a huge Ponzi Scheme?

There’s a reason they call’em entitlements.

Oh, the 80’s, that’s easy. Renaldus Reagan.

 

[MadPadraic]

Look, freedom to talk about what you want with who you want, but why are we talking about this on a snowboarding forum? Also, it's largely an incoherent echo chamber.

At least the EV topic was relevant, as New England is the most "drive to the mountain from a long way away" section of the world that I'm aware of. EVs are good in snow. Some people have range anxiety. New Hampshire is weird about taxes and fees: discuss.

I got my snow tires put on today. Hurray for winter.

 

[Ski the Moguls]

Over 3 million. Something that would actually allow you to live comfortably and not below the poverty line

Harvey, After some Googling and calculating I also came up with a little over $3 million for your $4,500 per year after 40 years in the S&P 500. Sorry, that’s gotta hurt.

 

[BenedictGomez]

And if you get 3000 a month from social and you live 30 years (big if) you'd get million

What you you do with a million dollars when you're 98 years old?

As Warren wisely advises, "I have more money than time".

 

[BenedictGomez]

I don't have the brain power to explain it, but at some level you know that people want it to be solvent because they like it and want it.

This is my main point, they WANT it because it's rightfully THEIR money, but that's conflating the issue with "liking" it. So the simple "like" question gets overexpressed faultily, which is why what I posted regarding people's expectations & belief in the program demonstrates their true feelings. Hell, I HATE Social Security and think it is literally the worst major program in our nation's history, and every I would "like" it to make me whole (even if I know it's a pipe dream).

Similar thread/narrative - New Jersey's teacher pension program is theoretically like finding a cache of gold bars. My wife is a teacher. It keeps people who would LOVE to leave New Jersey from doing to because they believe they would be forfeiting a king's ransom in 15 or 20 or 30 years. I am not a teacher, I am someone who has made his life doing financial, healthcare, and demographics modeling (it's actually even more boring than it sounds). I am 99.999999999999999999999999% certain that State of New Jersey will not be able to make people remotely whole, and this definitely factored into our willingness to recently flee the state. I have friends in similar situations who would love to leave, but wont because of their "State of New Jersey Guaranteed Pension". God be with you!

Does it matter what people think if the truth is, it’s not solvent, but a huge Ponzi Scheme?

What I've learned over the years is that most people do not understand what the true mechanics are underlying a Ponzi Scheme, and so they misuse that term for all sorts of financial crimes which are indeed crimes, but not Ponzi Schemes. Social Security, however, is the rare example which is literally a textbook Ponzi Scheme, but legal since it has government approval.

 

[BenedictGomez]

EVs are good in snow.

I would like you to expound upon this claim.

 

[BenedictGomez]

After some Googling and calculating I also came up with a little over $3 million for your $4,500 per year after 40 years in the S&P 500. Sorry, that’s gotta hurt.

 

[Harvey]

What you you do with a million dollars when you're 98 years old?

If you are living on it, it will be gone.

 

[deadheadskier]

Okay, so I wasn't keying in on the term "like" if that's truly where your focus is BG. That's fair. I was focusing more on the trends of support, which again I don't see having changed all that much since the turn of the century based upon data points I shared from Gallup.

Do I "like" SS? I guess the answer is No. Am I aware of how much more money I could have saved by investing the money on my own? Absolutely. Thankfully I make enough money, that provided my career stays on track the way it is, I'll have plenty of money to be comfortable in retirement even if I receive $0 in SS. I look at SS as potentially just bonus income in retirement. A decent amount though if benefits remain what they are today with COLA.

And yes I do understand that it is a Ponzi scheme with the potential to become insolvent.

That all said, I do support the concept of SS. I know it's flawed. But I go back to the 3-4% savings rate of Americans, which means many save little to nothing. I've got plenty of older family members that fall into this category who would be absolutely screwed without SS. It represents a majority of their retirement income. These folks for certain would not have the same savings and QOL in retirement they have if they had been trusted to invest the funds on their own. They would have spent it instead. I love them, but they're like so many other Americans, financially irresponsible due to the need for instant gratification. It's probably a third of my family on my side and maybe 1/2 on my wife's side. And the line of demarcation between being responsible with money or not in both families is in most situations related to level of education obtained. Not all, but most.

My thought has always been that it's fairly unproductive to put that much emotion / anger into thinking about how wasteful the government is with ALL forms of redistribution. That's not to say I don't vote or choose where I live with my wallet in mind. However, both are a small part of the equation of my overall strategy on how to thrive financially in life. It's best at the macro level to set up your future based upon career choices that maximize your developable skills. The data is all there to make choices in career and what the potential lifestyle could be.

And I didn't get this right my first time around despite having fairly successful parents advising me on how they did it. Though I think they both would admit they could have explained things better in my youth. They didn't see how much harder life would become financially with my generation vs theirs. In my situation the hotel industry just didn't end up having enough opportunities and the QOL I was looking for, so I went back to school in my 30s and changed careers. It doesn't stop there though. Now at the micro level it's about constantly evaluating my company, it's products and the market opportunities to sell them. If I see us losing momentum, I'll consider change to another company and their products.

And that's the way I talk about things with my own kids. Set yourself up to compete and thrive in life no matter what the government does. Be educated about what you're voting for, but don't count on those votes having a major impact on your life. Get yours own your own.

 

[x10003q]

Social Security is an insurance program, not a retirement/pension plan. If the funds were in the stock market they would be subject to sequencing issues. As an example, the SP 500 lost about 60% of its value from its peak in Oct, 2007, until it bottomed out Mar, 2009. The SS fund still paid out during this entire time. The fund would have been taken a huge hit that it would not have recovered from if it had been invested in the stock market while continuing to pay out to beneficiaries. The SS Fund cannot be subject to the risks of the stock market.

SS was created to reduce poverty of the elderly in the 1930s. Roughly 50% of the elderly lived below the poverty level in 1935. The number is now around 10%. This is a good thing. If SS did not exist, welfare would have been paying and that comes out of the US General Fund. The money would come from somewhere. Currently, SS is the largest portion of income for 60 percent of households age 65 and older.

Around 9% of SS payments are survivors benefits and around 13% are disability payments.

There are multiple reasons for the impending deficits. There are the ones we all hear about like not enough workers and people living longer. But there are some others that remain off the radar.
1. SS started paying out before it was funded. The initial group receiving benefits paid zero or very little into the fund while they were receiving benefits. This legacy debt has never been paid off.
2. When Reagan and the Congress raised the tax amount taken from wages for SS and made full retirement 67 in the early 1980s, the SS fund became loaded with $$$. Reagan and Congress proceeded to borrow the money to fund the US government while leaving IOUs in the fund. The IOUs have interest attached to them, but there is much debate about level. Other Presidents and Congresses have also used the SS fund.
3. Wage stagnation among lower-income workers over the past forty years means that the wage base subject to the payroll tax, the primary source of funding for Social Security, is not as large as it should be. Adding to the this, less people are getting overtime due to the misclassification of their jobs. The largest wage growth over the last 40 years happens to be above the SS wage cutoff ($160,200 this year).

Here is the article were most of this info comes from. It is an interesting read.

Social Security Is Essential. So Why Do Some Want to Cut It?

Members of Congress are once again discussing possible cuts to Social Security as they contemplate increases to the debt limit. Instead of viewing Social

tcf.org