1/7 Storm Discussion Thread

[Masskier]

Keep your eyes on this one. Could be a long ride to North country Friday.

From NWS Burlington

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST FEATURES TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JAN...WITH POTL FOR A RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED
STEADY SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

 

[MommaBear]

Keep your eyes on this one. Could be a long ride to North country Friday.

Heard that this morning - weatherman said it looked like a "snow day" for Friday. Already working to reschedule Friday's clients so I can head out Thursday night with the kids. (Assuming it all pans out - will make the call Thursday). Weekend showed WINDY.

 

[billski]

Looking mostly like a No. VT modest snow. Been amateurishly poking at the models this morning.
Hoping it hits MWV cause that's were I'll be. I would think about pre-positioning Friday night for first tracks Saturday (yeah, I'm sticking my neck out, but I'll be up there already. EICSL members can ski BW for $25 that day.

WHILE ALL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE. THIS IS DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN AS TO PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND AS A
RESULT...THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WHICH WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR. LATEST GFS SHOWS GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER VERMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

 

[Masskier]

Monday afternoon update:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EST MONDAY...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT 12Z
GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS OVER 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JANUARY...WHILE PROTRACTED SNOW EVENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY ACROSS VT...FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.

WE CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH DEEP...SLOW-MOVING H5 CLOSED LOW
WHICH RETROGRADES SOUTH OF JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING FRIDAY. INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION INTRODUCES ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW STARTING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
NRN NY...AND THEN DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
AFTN. THE INITIAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED...AND THESE
SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ALSO INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE WORDED AS
"LIGHT SNOW" IN THE FORECAST...WITH POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT.

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WILL
BE TIED WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS
QG DYNAMICS REACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK BUT THEN HOOKS WWD NEAR CAPE COD WITH DEEP 962MB LOW EAST
OF CAPE COD AT 18Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW IS STRONG...AND BRINGS MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO
VERMONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SOLN
IS ALSO IMPLIED BY 12Z UKMET WITH SIMILAR SFC LOW POSITION.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOT REFLECTED IN
CURRENT FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLN WITH GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH WWD EXTENT OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. IF SYSTEM REMAINS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...UPR TROUGH WOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOWS THRU
SATURDAY...AND THEN DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTL
EXISTS FOR 6+" OF SNOWFALL DUE TO LONG DURATION EVENT THU-
SAT...WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE AFOREMENTIONED
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WITH COASTAL LOW FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL/OUTDOOR PLANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS.

 

[billski]

WE CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH DEEP...SLOW-MOVING H5
We want to be impressed

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOT REFLECTED IN
CURRENT FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLN WITH GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY
Yep, that's what we like. Firm commitments...
p.s.,So why are they following the GFS if it has the greatest uncertainty?

PROTRACTED SNOW EVENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Damn better be. I've got a boatload of club folks heading up Thursday to pre-position

 

[Masskier]

WE CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH DEEP...SLOW-MOVING H5
We want to be impressed

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOT REFLECTED IN
CURRENT FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLN WITH GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY
Yep, that's what we like. Firm commitments...
p.s.,So why are they following the GFS if it has the greatest uncertainty?

PROTRACTED SNOW EVENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Damn better be. I've got a boatload of club folks heading up Thursday to pre-position

the uncertainty in the GFS is how far westward the heavy snowfall will get. They are fairly certain that we all will get some light snow, but someone will probably get dumped on. Hopefully most of VT

 

[Huck_It_Baby]

Top right I think is snowfall? Move mouse across #'s @ the top to scroll time. I'm new to these models but I think F114-F120 would be about Saturday?

By wed I'm making a decision on where to go.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

 

[riverc0il]

Thoughts from Tim Kelley:
http://www.necn.com/01/02/11/Foggy-...Flaky/landing.html?blockID=383366&feedID=6239

And the Single Chair Blog:
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2011/01/fresh-powder-within-reach-as-new.html

 

[billski]

Top right I think is snowfall? Move mouse across #'s @ the top to scroll time. I'm new to these models but I think F114-F120 would be about Saturday?

By wed I'm making a decision on where to go.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

The GFS makes more sense to me. 84 is 4 days from now.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

 

[bheemsoth]

What's the feeling on this storm today? I try to read the models, but I've got no idea what I'm looking at, so I'll defer to you guys.

 

[billski]

Still too early to know, but to me, it's looking like a few to several inches, depending how it tracks. Some models show southern New England getting the bulk of it. Not a "dump" or a "storm" by my standards. It might even push out to Sunday/Monday. No meteorologist is willing to stick a stake in the forecast ground yet.

Hopefully enough to cover the boiler-place base and make it ski-able again. It looks like the mountains will get 1-2 inches per day over this week. Nothing to make the news, but for skiers and sledders, It all adds up!

 

[gmcunni]

What's the feeling on this storm today? I try to read the models, but I've got no idea what I'm looking at, so I'll defer to you guys.

+1

if a smart person could post a or a :-( i would get more out of it than all the tech stuff.

 

[billski]

+1

if a smart person could post a or a :-( i would get more out of it than all the tech stuff.

I won't go on the record for smartness, but I'd probably give it a little :smile:

 

[bheemsoth]

Still too early to know, but to me, it's looking like a few to several inches, depending how it tracks. Some models show southern New England getting the bulk of it. Not a "dump" or a "storm" by my standards. It might even push out to Sunday/Monday. No meteorologist is willing to stick a stake in the forecast ground yet.

Hopefully enough to cover the boiler-place base and make it ski-able again. It looks like the mountains will get 1-2 inches per day over this week. Nothing to make the news, but for skiers and sledders, It all adds up!

Gotcha. My club is running a bus trip to Stratton on Saturday, and I'm trying to make my mind up if it's worth it. The price is right ($50), I just want to make sure the mountain will be in decent shape.

 

[Huck_It_Baby]

When we look at the predictions and forecasts do they take in to account upslope snow?

If not is there an accurate way to predict upsloping snow based on wind, humidity, etc?

I wonder how much extra snow some areas might recieve at upper elevations from this possible "storm"...

 

[WinnChill]

New model data is coming out as I type but just feel this thing gets pulled in too many directions and mainly offshore--Maine would probably make out best. Will update shortly as new data is available.

As for Stratton, temps all week support snowmaking for all as everyone recovers from this weekend's torch, so everyone should be in good shape.

 

[Angus]

WinnChill - could you provide some snow estimates relative to the Boston area - my other form of winter recreation is XC skiing and right now the "home" touring ctr don't have much natural snow on the trails. Thanks.

 

[billski]

When we look at the predictions and forecasts do they take in to account upslope snow?

If not is there an accurate way to predict up-sloping snow based on wind, humidity, etc?

I wonder how much extra snow some areas might receive at upper elevations from this possible "storm"...

As I understand, if the wind is blowing directly onto the mountain face that has its trail on it, you will receive up-slope additional snow. Each mountain faces somewhat differently, though the vast majority are facing N, NW or NE. So if the winds blow from the N into a N facing slope, you win with upslope. There is an AZ thread where all the resort faces are described.

BC skiers take advantage of this upslope opportunity by figuring out where the winds are (not always slope-side) and going there by tele.

 

[billski]

WinnChill - could you provide some snow estimates relative to the Boston area - my other form of winter recreation is XC skiing and right now the "home" touring ctr don't have much natural snow on the trails. Thanks.

Here is the official voice of WinnChill :
http://www.snowforecast.com/MassachusettsSkiResorts

They update it a couple times a day. My experience is they don't stick their necks out till the confidence level is fairly high.

 

[WinnChill]

When we look at the predictions and forecasts do they take in to account upslope snow?

If not is there an accurate way to predict upsloping snow based on wind, humidity, etc?

I wonder how much extra snow some areas might recieve at upper elevations from this possible "storm"...

Basically, straight up model data, no. Micro climates and local effects are left up to human forecasters to fine-tune.

@Bill...the MA/CT/RI pages are on autopilot so we don't have more detailed forecasts for them yet.