Angus--still think ME would make out better with this one. Boston would be hard pressed to get accumulations, but we'll keep monitoring the model trends.
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1/7 Storm Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Masskier
- Start date
Angus--still think ME would make out better with this one. Boston would be hard pressed to get accumulations, but we'll keep monitoring the model trends.
billski
Active member
Thanks. What does autopilot mean? you feed from NWS unless snowfall is imminent?
billski
Active member
Well here is what
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Northeast-Kingdom-Weather
has to say:
Weak Alberta Clipper moves into the Northeast Kingdom with snow beginning after 1 pm. Expecting a trace to 2" from this system with higher amounts across the mountains. Highs today near 28. Overnight, snow showers continue with another inch possible, lows in the upper teens. Looking ahead - Jury still out on the weekend storm over whether it will be a significant snow storm, or just a long duration snowy nuisance.
Posted Tuesday AM
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Northeast-Kingdom-Weather
has to say:
Weak Alberta Clipper moves into the Northeast Kingdom with snow beginning after 1 pm. Expecting a trace to 2" from this system with higher amounts across the mountains. Highs today near 28. Overnight, snow showers continue with another inch possible, lows in the upper teens. Looking ahead - Jury still out on the weekend storm over whether it will be a significant snow storm, or just a long duration snowy nuisance.
Posted Tuesday AM
KingM
New member
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- Warren, VT (Sugarbush, MRG)
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- www.goldenlionriversideinn.com
At this point, even a long duration snowy nuisance sounds great.
The "all-human", detailed forecasts take much more time and we just don't have the staff to do all areas right now--we pull in our own data for those areas.
k123
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120- hour gfs forecast is showing belleayre to be in the hot spot of this storm
riverc0il
New member
You guys gotta stop torturing yourselves by looking at the models online. Especially in a storm with this type of uncertainty. If the pro and amateur mets are not willing to make a call yet or even make a suggestion other than "somewhere in New England might see plowable snow" then the pros are saying that they don't know, that the models are not yet reliable enough for even them to hazard a guess.
Even if the pro mets were 100% certain on this one, I'll leave the model and map reading to the pros. Obviously, it takes more than bookmarking the URL of a weather model service provider to know what is going to happen and how things are going to play out.
I am just glad we have many ski focus amateur weather folks (and occasionally a pro or two) focusing on what is happening on ski areas and microforecasting for the mountains.
Somewhere will get snow this weekend and I'll be there. I can wait until tomorrow night to get excited over potential accumulation maps instead of psyching myself out with unreliable preliminary model runs.
Even if the pro mets were 100% certain on this one, I'll leave the model and map reading to the pros. Obviously, it takes more than bookmarking the URL of a weather model service provider to know what is going to happen and how things are going to play out.
I am just glad we have many ski focus amateur weather folks (and occasionally a pro or two) focusing on what is happening on ski areas and microforecasting for the mountains.
Somewhere will get snow this weekend and I'll be there. I can wait until tomorrow night to get excited over potential accumulation maps instead of psyching myself out with unreliable preliminary model runs.
Yes, it's fun to dabble with the maps/charts and all, but it does amount to torture. But, what can you expect...we'd do anything for skiable snow, right? We've been ballparking less than half a foot for most areas Friday for a couple of days now (and about the same for Saturday when the track looked a little closer) but we're edged a bit downward still.
This storm looks to slip by VT/NH/ME on Friday (clipping southernmost resorts) and then flaring up out to sea Saturday. We like the potential of upslope snows setting back up for northern resorts this weekend (Jay/Bolton thru Balsams/Bretton and in particular SR/Saddle/SL). So perhaps a bit for southern areas Friday but then flipping to northern areas this weekend...tough forecast...and things are still changing. But we try to explain everything in our discussions. Hope it helps!
This storm looks to slip by VT/NH/ME on Friday (clipping southernmost resorts) and then flaring up out to sea Saturday. We like the potential of upslope snows setting back up for northern resorts this weekend (Jay/Bolton thru Balsams/Bretton and in particular SR/Saddle/SL). So perhaps a bit for southern areas Friday but then flipping to northern areas this weekend...tough forecast...and things are still changing. But we try to explain everything in our discussions. Hope it helps!
St. Bear
New member
Here's everyone's favorite, Accuweather predicting the bullseye to be the Catskills:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43963/disruptive-snow-for-new-york-c-1.asp
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43963/disruptive-snow-for-new-york-c-1.asp
ERJ-145CA
Active member
120- hour gfs forecast is showing belleayre to be in the hot spot of this storm
I like that map - it has my house with 15" - 18". Same at Hidden Valley and Mountain Creek. If I wish hard enough maybe this prediction will come true.:wink:
billski
Active member
Just leave that up permanently and you'll be all set!
Separately, regarding "torture". I don't get my hopes up over watching models. However, I do find it very instructive to understand why the meteorologists say what they say.
What always blows my mind is how the media takes those statements and extrapolate from them, often without cause.
Regardless, I'm heading north tomorrow night.
Last edited:
gmcunni
Active member
platkill on saturday, who's with me?
never been before but hear it is THE place to be in the catskills when there is fresh snow.
never been before but hear it is THE place to be in the catskills when there is fresh snow.
billski
Active member
Which reminds me, We need to get the visibility of the trips and events folder up there. It seems to get lost.
4aprice
Well-known member
Bill:
I thought at one time you said you wanted to hit Hunta. If that verifies you may want to go soon. Plattekill is awesome too. It was great up there last year after that huge snow.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
billski
Active member
I have a really hard time going West when I can go north. There are other issues, but I'd rather not bring them up in a forum!
psyflyer
New member
Burke was scheduled to get a dusting from a clipper which is going through now. Instead we have a solid 4 inches since last night and still going. We rode all day with maybe 20 people on the whole mountain. I was not around for the thaw but by looking at the mountain right now you would never have guessed it went through a thaw just a few days ago. The mountain is in great shape and it rides great. Hopefully this coming storm will be a good one.
Glad you had a good time Psy! This next storm probably won't amount to much for N VT at the start (Fri), however, upslope snow tries to set up Sat so Burke/Jay/Smuggs/Stowe would have a better chance of that into Sunday with some slow accumulations.
gmcunni
Active member
that map K123 posted is changing and not in a good way :-(
Masskier
New member
Welcome back psyflyer and thanks for the update. Things are starting to shape up again.
