12/12 Storm Speculation Thread

[WJenness]

lol-- 18z gfs (supposedly off hour crap from those in the know) has it going out to sea over the benchmark-- if I understand it correctly. We now have from detroit to the atlantic covered.

So no matter WHAT happens... someone's probably right.


a.k.a. The sawed off shotgun forecast approach...

-w

 

[drjeff]

This model above shows why EAST is so important for snow, especially this time of year for this type of storm. As the low move up the coast from likely somewhere around the DC area, the winds circulate counter clockwise around the low, so out ahead of the storm, we in the Northeast often get a significant Easterly component to the winds(read as coming off the Atlantic) as the atmosphere is "setting up" for the storm. This time of year, the Atlantic is still in the 40's around much of New England, so pre-storm, warm air gets infused into the mix(see the green colored area North and East of the low pressure). If the storm tracks far enough East, the warm air stays East and the cold air wins out and we stay snow (see the blue areas due North and West and also with back side wrap around in this case, SOUTH of the low). Depending on how this one tracks, sometime on Sunday it vary well may be 40ish and raining in Boston while at the same time it's in the lower 20's and snowing in Atlanta

The *good* things that seem to be happening with many models now is that the primary storm seems to be slowing down(this is the low that wants to head up the St. Lawrence Seaway) with a subsequent transfer of energy to a secondary low which would form off the East coast in the VA area (kind of what's pictured above) - this is good for New England snow possibilities! Some models are even suggesting EXPLOSIVE growth of the secondary low, but once again there's about a million variables to still figure out, and the next series of model runs could very well trend opposite to this. Heck, the low which could make this all happen hasn't even entered the continental US yet! Gotta keep watching!

 

[riverc0il]

:lol:

 

[WinnChill]

Great posts DrJeff! There was a HUGE jump on the 18Z...but of course, it's the 18Z 4 days out and will probably correct back again.

I like how the upper pattern sort of snaps back into a more favorable cold pattern for us. While we can get whopper storms shifting out of a good pattern, chances are better when we dive into it. Oughta be fun!

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

From what I have seen, I think this is going to be a bad to worse storm. Mix precip way north/maybe some snow, then tons of rain for 99.9% of New England. Hey at least the provincial resorts will get buried again.

 

[andrec10]

From what I have seen, I think this is going to be a bad to worse storm. Mix precip way north/maybe some snow, then tons of rain for 99.9% of New England. Hey at least the provincial resorts will get buried again.

Only good Karma for the storm please!:-D

 

[jaja111]

Hoping Western NY has a fighting chance for this to stay far enough east. Forecast discussions here indicate at best 50/50 chances of slush and rain versus heavy snowfall. Either way it brings sub arctic cold in on a NW flow, repeating this week's weather. Holiday Valley south of Buffalo reports up to 2 feet from this week long event. The powder is currently deep.

Forecasts into next week state the snowfall could potentially be damaging to structures. Google photos from this week in Lucan, Ontario southeast of Lake Huron.... and think x2. Sacrifices to Ullr are forthcoming here.

 

[drjeff]

Great posts DrJeff! There was a HUGE jump on the 18Z...but of course, it's the 18Z 4 days out and will probably correct back again.

I like how the upper pattern sort of snaps back into a more favorable cold pattern for us. While we can get whopper storms shifting out of a good pattern, chances are better when we dive into it. Oughta be fun!

Thanks Winn! It almost seems like for this storm that we need to get the winter equivalent of the "cone of uncertainty" that the national hurricane center uses for it's forcasting tracks! :lol:

 

[drjeff]

Twist #7,816 so far with this thing. Now, more and more models are suggesting that for New England, the cold air will stay, BUT the storm path will flatten out, which greatly decreases the chance of the explosive development/"bombing out" of the storm that could produce BIG snowfall totals

But with still about 100 hours to go or so before this thing gets to New England, the only thing that can be said with any degree of certainty right now, is that some precipitation will fall over New England. When? where? what type? how much? Who knows? :lol:

 

[riverc0il]

Twist #7,816 so far with this thing. Now, more and more models are suggesting that for New England, the cold air will stay, BUT the storm path will flatten out, which greatly decreases the chance of the explosive development/"bombing out" of the storm that could produce BIG snowfall totals

But with still about 100 hours to go or so before this thing gets to New England, the only thing that can be said with any degree of certainty right now, is that some precipitation will fall over New England. When? where? what type? how much? Who knows? :lol:

I will GLADLY take all cold and no snow over any type of mixing or worse! :beer: We got it really good this week and ski areas need to preserve what they got and keep blowing.

 

[hammer]

I will GLADLY take all cold and no snow over any type of mixing or worse! :beer: We got it really good this week and ski areas need to preserve what they got and keep blowing.

+1

Just trying to not be discouraged by forecasts in the flatlands. Only thing that NCP at home will do is make getting a Christmas tree more troublesome.

 

[WinnChill]

I will GLADLY take all cold and no snow over any type of mixing or worse! :beer: We got it really good this week and ski areas need to preserve what they got and keep blowing.

I'm curious though...what if northern resorts who have 2-3' now got some mixing (not a washout but some sleet) to compact it down, would that actually help pack the base a little better? Not sure.

 

[drjeff]

I'm curious though...what if northern resorts who have 2-3' now got some mixing (not a washout but some sleet) to compact it down, would that actually help pack the base a little better? Not sure.

Winn, it depends on what side of the fence you're looking at things from. From a pure powder seeker enjoyment factor, you don't want any appreciable moisture content added to the super light fluff that fell this week, and ended up in many places where the wind deposited it, VERY deep!

From an operations standpoint, you'd LOVE to see some moisture added to the snow that fell this week to basically form a good, solid base that will cover a good amount of the branches/rocks/stream beds that can cause issues where snow hasn't been made. This would help set things up for subsequent storms and really help get things going with respect to terrain only covered by natural snow.

Each side can make a valid arguement for why their point of view is better than the others in this case

 

[WinnChill]

Winn, it depends on what side of the fence you're looking at things from. From a pure powder seeker enjoyment factor, you don't want any appreciable moisture content added to the super light fluff that fell this week, and ended up in many places where the wind deposited it, VERY deep!

From an operations standpoint, you'd LOVE to see some moisture added to the snow that fell this week to basically form a good, solid base that will cover a good amount of the branches/rocks/stream beds that can cause issues where snow hasn't been made. This would help set things up for subsequent storms and really help get things going with respect to terrain only covered by natural snow.

Each side can make a valid arguement for why their point of view is better than the others in this case

Gotcha, thanks! I have very little pure, deep powder experience. Someday perhaps!

 

[drjeff]

Unfortunately the model runs are as of now continuing to suggest that if you were planning on canceling any holiday prep/party plans on Sunday in favor of a powder day, well don't cancel the holiday plans It looks now like this storm is going to do it's best to fall aprart and/or take a track that brings little moisture (of any kind) to New England now :smash:

We'll see what the models later today show

 

[hammer]

Unfortunately the model runs are as of now continuing to suggest that if you were planning on canceling any holiday prep/party plans on Sunday in favor of a powder day, well don't cancel the holiday plans It looks now like this storm is going to do it's best to fall aprart and/or take a track that brings little moisture (of any kind) to New England now :smash:

We'll see what the models later today show

What about temps? Will it at least stay cold?

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

I will GLADLY take all cold and no snow over any type of mixing or worse! :beer: We got it really good this week and ski areas need to preserve what they got and keep blowing.

Amen to that!

 

[drjeff]

What about temps? Will it at least stay cold?

As of now, it's looking like if it gets above freezing at all, it won't be by more than a couple of degrees, and even then, most of that "warm" air will likely be confined to the coastal areas.

This trending towards colder in the moldels has been about the only constant as of late

 

[mondeo]

Unfortunately the model runs are as of now continuing to suggest that if you were planning on canceling any holiday prep/party plans on Sunday in favor of a powder day, well don't cancel the holiday plans It looks now like this storm is going to do it's best to fall aprart and/or take a track that brings little moisture (of any kind) to New England now :smash:

We'll see what the models later today show

That's why I include "weather permitting" any time I call for vacation based on potential storms. I'll make the call Sunday night, here's hoping it's a foot of dense followed by a foot of moderate followed by a foot of light.

 

[Greg]

here's hoping it's a foot of dense followed by a foot of moderate followed by a foot of light.

Shit man. Why don't we just go for a cool 18" of uber-light on top of all that.... :lol: :razz: