2/1 - 2/2 Storm Discussion Thread

[Puck it]

Tried to break it down in our discussion...basically 2 waves--the first (weaker "jab") arrives Tues, then the stronger (uppercut) hits Wed into Wed night...clearing Thurs.

In reference to the map just posted above..I disagree with the "blizzard" designation. I just don't see this as a huge wind maker for us. Snow? Sure, but wind, no, which, by definition, is the making of a blizzard. This is exactly the kind of distortion we do NOT need in the weather community. :smash:

Thx. It looks like a day event for Wed. Wed. is the day then.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Tried to break it down in our discussion...basically 2 waves--the first (weaker "jab") arrives Tues, then the stronger (uppercut) hits Wed into Wed night...clearing Thurs.

In reference to the map just posted above..I disagree with the "blizzard" designation. I just don't see this as a huge wind maker for us. Snow? Sure, but wind, no, which, by definition, is the making of a blizzard. This is exactly the kind of distortion we do NOT need in the weather community. :smash:

Agreed, I was listening to Tim Kelly (one of the better weathermen, aka doesnt get drawn into the over hype that some do) said that heavy snow yes, but wind no. He said wind typically doesn't follow storms when other minor storms (tues) come in just prior. The first storm typically clears out the wind.

 

[St. Bear]

This Accuweather guy has ADK in the bullseye.

 

[ChileMass]

OK, I'm just gonna say it - I've had enough of the snow in the lowlands where there aren't any chairlifts. Channel 7 in Boston just said we could get another 15-20" on Tues-Wed and I say Fuck That. Put the snow up north of Nashua and White River Junction and Glens Falls, not down here in central Mass. We have plenty, thanks......

Seriously - where are we going to put 18" of new snow? Nothing has melted in the last 3 weeks.

 

[WJenness]

Hmm... already taking Friday off of work (sadly, I won't be skiing, I'll be down in DC running a fencing tournament)... I wonder if I can convince my boss to let me take Wed. and Thurs too...

-w

 

[billski]

Tried to break it down in our discussion...basically 2 waves--the first (weaker "jab") arrives Tues, then the stronger (uppercut) hits Wed into Wed night...clearing Thurs.

In reference to the map just posted above..I disagree with the "blizzard" designation. I just don't see this as a huge wind maker for us. Snow? Sure, but wind, no, which, by definition, is the making of a blizzard. This is exactly the kind of distortion we do NOT need in the weather community. :smash:

Good call Winn. Unfortunately, we need to know what's happening in the flatlands as well as hill country, as it's getting kinda deep down here I know that's not your forte', but you're one of the tops on snow forecasting in the east!

 

[skidbump]

neglected this one..Kinda lookin pretty shitty as of now

 

[WinnChill]

Good call Winn. Unfortunately, we need to know what's happening in the flatlands as well as hill country, as it's getting kinda deep down here I know that's not your forte', but you're one of the tops on snow forecasting in the east!

Just as N New England deals with sharp cutoffs on northern fringes of nor'easters, you'll be dealing with sharp cutoff amounts with mixing for MA/RI/CT. Likely a sharp gradient dropping off from a foot down. More to follow...

 

[hammer]

Just as N New England deals with sharp cutoffs on northern fringes of nor'easters, you'll be dealing with sharp cutoff amounts with mixing for MA/RI/CT. Likely a sharp gradient dropping off from a foot down. More to follow...

How is the forecast for icing in the flatlands? Last I heard, some parts of the midwest could be in for a major ice storm...and I'd guess that we would be more concerned about ice than about more snow.

 

[Glenn]

Gil on News8 was calling for some pretty major icing in the flatlands on Wednesday.

NWS out of Albany was saying (yesterday) that the line may be South of the Pike. But no real refference this AM. It looks like the Bratt area could get some mixing. NWS has Dover staying all slow in the graphical forecast.

I'm liking Winn's prediction of 12-18" of snow @ Mt Snow Wednesday! That works!

 

[gmcunni]

i like this picture.

 

[WJenness]

Pat's Peak? Sunapee? Beast? Magic?

Should we start taking bets on the big winner?

-w

 

[wa-loaf]

The amount of snow we have is getting kind of comical.

 

[jrmagic]

Doh! I'm gonna have to miss this one due to previos engagements. I'm liking the no wind deal so the stuff stays where it belongs.

 

[WJenness]

NWS Taunton has released a watch:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST AND EXCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW TUESDAY. SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF GLAZE OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS... RHODE ISLAND AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AT TIMES AND ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE.

LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT.

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL THEN LIKELY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE PIKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE PIKE SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION MAY KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SNOW AND ICE CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...ROOFS AND GUTTERS SHOULD ONLY BE REMOVED BY OR WITH THE SUPERVISION OF PROFESSIONALS AND/OR ADULTS. THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FOR SOME BUSINESSES AND HOMES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...18 TO 25 NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE TUESDAY...25 TO 32 SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE TUESDAY. LOWS 15 TO 20 NORTH AND 20 TO 25 SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 25 TO 30 NORTH AND 30 TO 35 SOUTH WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED AT TIMES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS PRIMARILY TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

-w

 

[gmcunni]

The latest CT forecast -


LONG DURATION DOUBLE BARREL WINTER STORM EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF ROOF & DECK COLLAPSE IS POSSIBLE…

This morning's runs of the GFS and NAM models are forecasting a long duration winter storm Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. The GFS and NAM models are forecasting a double barrel system (somewhat similar to the last storm). The weight of this new snow, sleet and rain added to the tremendous weight of the existing snow load on many flat or shallow sloped roofs and decks may pose a significant risk for roof and building collapses during the storm.

The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and NAM models:

Tuesday: Light snow developing around daybreak and becoming steadier during the day. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix into the state by Tuesday afternoon with 2 - 4 inches of snow expected by the afternoon rush hour. Highs in the 20's. Some icing on power lines and trees is possible in Southern and Central CT. A minor impact is expected for the Tuesday morning rush hour with just some light snow. The impact is gradually expected to increase to moderate by the Tuesday afternoon rush hour.

Tuesday Night: Drizzle overnight with an additional inch of snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Lows in the 20's. A minor impact on overnight travel is expected.

Wednesday: Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain becoming moderate to heavy around daybreak and continuing into the late afternoon. The mixed precipitation is expected to change back to snow before ending by Wednesday at midnight. Highs in the upper 20's to low 30's. A considerable risk of roof and deck collapses is forecast during the day on Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday as the snow, sleet and rain add more weight to roofs and decks. Considerable icing may also occur causing significant power outages. The outlook for both Wednesday rush hours is for a moderate impact on travel with mixed precipitation melting on most treated and heavily traveled highways, but sticking to the less traveled and treated secondary roads.

Storm total snowfall is forecast to range from 3 - 5 inches along the coast up to 14 inches in Northern CT. Approximately 1 inch of sleet and 1/2 - 3/4 inch of icing is also expected during the storm. Forecast confidence is good at this time. However the rain/snow line is going to be fairly narrow (only 150 miles between all rain and all snow) across Southern New England during the storm. If the track of the storm moves 50 miles north or south then we can expect the snowfall amounts and icing to shift north or south with the storm track.

 

[MommaBear]

The thought of a thick layer of ice on top of all this stop here in CT makes me want to cry. I'd rather get another foot of snow then any ice.

 

[gmcunni]

I'd rather get another foot of snow then any ice.

yes

 

[phatptrck1]

Anyone have an educated guess as to what this sysytem may drop on the slopes in Maine? Sugarloaf and/or Sunday River?

 

[RootDKJ]

Looks like Blue Mountain might be the PA winner until the change over to ice.