2/1 - 2/2 Storm Discussion Thread

[kingslug]

7" Hunter Mountain

Keep it coming!!! I'm out at Alta ...we just got 18 inches but I want to come home to...so major pukage...

 

[skidbump]

a bunch of weather maps


http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=112467

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Just my observation (uneducated at that), but I don't see this storm dropping the high end snow they are calling for. I think WMUR in NH's revised (yesterday) snow totals of 8-14 might even be high here. I would guess 8 tops. It's snowing hard here, but the dry slots are already into parts of Connecticut and NY. NECN and Accuweather last I checked were calling anywhere from 15-24 inches....I find that hard to believe.

 

[Glenn]

NWS is still saying 1-2' in SoVT. I guess it all depends on how hard it comes down. They say it could be up to 2" and hour at times.

I'm just hoping they don't get a lot of mixing. It only takes a little ice to ruin a perfectly good snowstorm.

 

[WinnChill]

Just my observation (uneducated at that), but I don't see this storm dropping the high end snow they are calling for. I think WMUR in NH's revised (yesterday) snow totals of 8-14 might even be high here. I would guess 8 tops. It's snowing hard here, but the dry slots are already into parts of Connecticut and NY. NECN and Accuweather last I checked were calling anywhere from 15-24 inches....I find that hard to believe.

I think you're on the right track UV. I felt that the 2 feet forecasts were overdone and that a foot to foot and a half from the get-go was a good starting point. Moisture amounts with this storm are good (although edged downwards from previous model runs) but this storm will be getting stretched out and weakening--plus temps aloft are a bit warmer (smaller snowflakes) and the optimal snow growth zone in the upper levels are pretty high. Model runs were showing snow to liquid ratios 15-20:1 whereas I felt it should be down around 10-15:1. WMUR has normally been pretty conservative and try to account for such a wide variation in terrain with the ranges. I tweaked ours back down a bit and hope we get into the lower range...we'll see. Either way, thankfully this storm is favoring northern NE this time!!!:razz:

I've been poking around on Facebook seeing what folks are saying and of course they're cherry picking the highest amounts they can find. And it's funny how they ALWAYS post only the HIGH end number, while all forecasted snow ranges actually have a LOWER end range...somehow those are completely ignored.

 

[WinnChill]

NWS is still saying 1-2' in SoVT. I guess it all depends on how hard it comes down. They say it could be up to 2" and hour at times.

I'm just hoping they don't get a lot of mixing. It only takes a little ice to ruin a perfectly good snowstorm.

Most of the mixing stays right on the doorstep to the south, however, I did put the slight chance of some sleet mixing in for Mount Snow/Stratton.

 

[psyflyer]

6-8 inches on Burke. First chair here we come.

 

[wa-loaf]

Kind of a sleet downpour right now. Totals around here will be way down from what was predicted.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Winn, quick question for you. Do you think Maine might see the jackpot of sorts? Seems the way this storm has taken shape (direction, etc) that places like Sugarloaf and Norther Maine might make out a little better? I know originally they were forcast to be in the 8-12 or so, but they seems to be setting up nicely. Granted the satelite images I was looking at might be showing ground clutter, verga, etc and snow may not be hitting as hard as it looks. Just curious.

 

[WinnChill]

Winn, quick question for you. Do you think Maine might see the jackpot of sorts? Seems the way this storm has taken shape (direction, etc) that places like Sugarloaf and Norther Maine might make out a little better? I know originally they were forcast to be in the 8-12 or so, but they seems to be setting up nicely. Granted the satelite images I was looking at might be showing ground clutter, verga, etc and snow may not be hitting as hard as it looks. Just curious.

I have the SR/SL area split right now...just over a foot for SR and just under a foot for SL. With the wide swath and northern trend lately, that whole area should probably be in the general foot range, perhaps a bit more...I'll adjust that shortly. The rest of the southern resorts should get just over a foot as well. Exception would be of course BigRock/Quoggy/Lonesome and maybe Big Squaw falling under a foot.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

I have the SR/SL area split right now...just over a foot for SR and just under a foot for SL. With the wide swath and northern trend lately, that whole area should probably be in the general foot range, perhaps a bit more...I'll adjust that shortly. The rest of the southern resorts should get just over a foot as well. Exception would be of course BigRock/Quoggy/Lonesome and maybe Big Squaw falling under a foot.

Biq Squaw is just a waste of snow, hahaha. Sorry, had to throw that in there. I grew up just east of there and first put plank to snow there back in the 90's. Still bitter about the current ownership and lack of opening.

 

[WinnChill]

Biq Squaw is just a waste of snow, hahaha. Sorry, had to throw that in there. I grew up just east of there and first put plank to snow there back in the 90's. Still bitter about the current ownership and lack of opening.

Even though I went to school in Orono for a short while, I never ventured farther than that. Too busy watching Stephen King movies I guess.

 

[Euler]

Just rolled out of bed in Putney,VT. Snow on the front deck is higher than the bottom of the outward opening door - had to push hard to get it open. I didn't shovel well before this storm so I don't have a good place to take a real measurement, but its looking like close to a foot of snow has fallen since this began yesterday morning. No evidence of any crust or freezing rain from last night. Its snowing HARD!

 

[WinnChill]

Just rolled out of bed in Putney,VT. Snow on the front deck is higher than the bottom of the outward opening door - had to push hard to get it open. I didn't shovel well before this storm so I don't have a good place to take a real measurement, but its looking like close to a foot of snow has fallen since this began yesterday morning. No evidence of any crust or freezing rain from last night. Its snowing HARD!

If you do get any mixing, it would be through midday or a bit this afternoon--maybe some sleet.

It's just intense snowfall here in southern NH!!! Pure white and very limited visibility!

 

[Glenn]

Most of the mixing stays right on the doorstep to the south, however, I did put the slight chance of some sleet mixing in for Mount Snow/Stratton.

Just read your report for Mt Snow...here's to hoping the mixing holds off. And another 6" of snow on Saturday would be a good bonus!

And hey...there's always the Tuesday system.....:beer:

 

[Glenn]

Just rolled out of bed in Putney,VT. Snow on the front deck is higher than the bottom of the outward opening door - had to push hard to get it open. I didn't shovel well before this storm so I don't have a good place to take a real measurement, but its looking like close to a foot of snow has fallen since this began yesterday morning. No evidence of any crust or freezing rain from last night. Its snowing HARD!

Awesome! Thanks for the update. Not much snowfall here in mid southern CT, so I'm glad there's something to look forward to this weekend.

 

[Euler]

No sloppy stuff yet, but I'm getting really worried about how close the pink is coming to SoVT.



http://www.intellicast.com/national/radar/current.aspx?

location=USCT0094[/URL

 

[j law]

I know - I'm a bit nervous... I was planning on driving up to Mt Snow from NYC tomorrow morning and it looks like the trees could get ruined by some ice.

I think Whiteface might be my better option... the crazy thing is that I have theater tickets at 8pm! Anyone know how long the drive actually is from Manhattan to WF?

 

[WinnChill]

Just read your report for Mt Snow...here's to hoping the mixing holds off. And another 6" of snow on Saturday would be a good bonus!

And hey...there's always the Tuesday system.....:beer:

It'll be very, very close--if it does mix, it should be short lived.

 

[billski]

If you do get any mixing, it would be through midday or a bit this afternoon--maybe some sleet.

Are you talking at the higher altitudes?