Abubob
Well-known member
Seems bad enough. These guys sure aren't happy about it.
-
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2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Boston Bulldog
- Start date
Boston Bulldog
Member
TS Erin died in the Atlantic
Invest 95-L in the BOC, should be TS Fernand soon
GFS for September 1st
Two possible storms, now that's what I call an eye
Invest 95-L in the BOC, should be TS Fernand soon
GFS for September 1st
Two possible storms, now that's what I call an eye
Boston Bulldog
Member
Boston Bulldog
Member
TS by Now? Recon has left Miami to investigate
Conrad
Member
Wow, it seems like it isn't quite the busy hurricane season they predicted. Although maybe I shouldn't be saying that until September. But usually you start to see things pick up in August.
Boston Bulldog
Member
Invest 95-L now Tropical Storm Fernand packing 45 mph winds. Expected to strengthen somewhat before landfall.
Discussion:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 252331
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR
SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40
KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON
THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN
UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2300Z 19.2N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 20.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Discussion:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 252331
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR
SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40
KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON
THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN
UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2300Z 19.2N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 20.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Boston Bulldog
Member
Landfall as a 50 mph storm in Mexico. Currently a depression, should dissapate soon.
Conrad
Member
Inactive Atlantic hurricane season a ‘head-scratcher’
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021737969_hurricaneseasonxml.html
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021737969_hurricaneseasonxml.html
I hope its not the same guys that called for a cold snowy winter!
dlague
Active member
No kidding! When it comes to hurricanes this season - "crickets"!
ScottySkis
Well-known member
This is good I don't want another Sandy one was more then I needed for a messy disaster at my job bad memories and health because of it.
Boston Bulldog
Member
The numbers have been done on Sandy and the track it took was a 1 in 700 years occurance, you should be fine.
Meanwhile, something is a-brewing in the Eastern Caribbean.
twinplanx
Active member
I'm gonna go ahead and call BS on those "numbers" The "track" was/is not as important as the fact that it hit at high tide on unprepared stretch of coast. This IMHO was most destructive. The first major hurricane to hit in my lifetime was Gloria. Being the history buff that I am I spoke to some old-timers who said it was nothing compared to the hurricane of '38. I'm not saying track is not important, '38 barely effected the city. Being prepared, not falling into a jaded "boy who cried wolf" syndrome and knowing that IT CAN happen here are the only things that will prevent more Sandy like destruction...The numbers have been done on Sandy and the track it took was a 1 in 700 years occurance, you should be fine.
Meanwhile, something is a-brewing in the Eastern Caribbean.
Boston Bulldog
Member
I'll agree with you that the lack of preparation was the most devastating effect from Sandy, but the rare track increased surge on that unprepared coast.
Interesting article on Sandy here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2510
twinplanx
Active member
Fair enough. But, keep in mind, the study of hurricanes is SLIGHTLY less then 700 years old... ;-)
Boston Bulldog
Member
Haha, You got me there buddy:smile:
Boston Bulldog
Member
Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms south of Puerto Rico, moving WNW at 4 mph. Potential to become 1st hurricane of season, fortunately it is expected to NOT affect the eastern seaboard. Whew!
Boston Bulldog
Member
Impressive
skinowworklater
Member
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Tropics heating up now, Gabrielle reformed and Humberto getting stronger.....
Boston Bulldog
Member
Well Gabrielle didn't really pan out, but at 5am today we got our first hurricane!
Humberto is strengthening and could reach cat 2 status by tomorrow. Currrently packing 80mph winds. A little eye is trying to form in the inner core, just to the south of the deep convection. It could pop out tomorrow.
Fortunately this storm is well out to sea and no landmasses, including Bermuda, stand in its path
Humberto is strengthening and could reach cat 2 status by tomorrow. Currrently packing 80mph winds. A little eye is trying to form in the inner core, just to the south of the deep convection. It could pop out tomorrow.
Fortunately this storm is well out to sea and no landmasses, including Bermuda, stand in its path
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