3/6-3/7 storm?

[St. Bear]

This is from Tim Kelley.

 

[BenedictGomez]

This is from Tim Kelley.

Did he also post the Euro? It went south. EURO vs. GFS model war. Stop me if you've heard this story before.

Who knows, maybe the GFS and NAM will be right and the EURO wrong. It would be nice.

 

[ScottySkis]

March-7 my my birthday, I want snow, snow, you know what lol. Snow I want great bagels please and good skiing!!!

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Margusity's latest tweet

Accu_Henry: What I am trying to figure out this morning is if the GFS is right in bringing snow north into NYC and Boston.

Wow, talk about a jump to the north!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Margusity's latest tweet

Accu_Henry: What I am trying to figure out this morning is if the GFS is right in bringing snow north into NYC and Boston.

Wow, talk about a jump to the north!

I wouldn't get too excited yet. The core is still in VA, and the GFS/NAM have tended to overdo their leaps all winter. Still hoping the models are wrong, but it's not looking too good for us in northern NJ. Needs to take a big jump north.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Needs to take a big jump north.

And, as if it were listening to me, the 12z GFS just came out and took a MASSIVE geographical leap north.

This will now either be:

A) The GFS' revenge on the Euro
B) Another major embarrassment for the US government's weather model

 

[St. Bear]

Wow. My wife is gonna be pissed at me after this weekend.

 

[legalskier]

And, as if it were listening to me, the 12z GFS just came out and took a MASSIVE geographical leap north.

Any idea on the timing?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Any idea on the timing?

The timing would be a Wednesday afternoon/night to Thursday am.

But keep in mind, I dont believe the GFS (the map St. Bear posted) with the huge northeastern snow totals above is going to happen.

Think about what has happened almost all winter long. There's been either some slight model disagreement or maybe even model agreement, and then...... with a few days to go...... the GFS does something DRAMATICALLY different than pretty much everyone else, and it's been wrong every time.

So why would I believe the GFS now, when it's doing the same crazy thing its done all winter as the storm approaches? Yes, this would be awesome for ski country if it happens, but until other models get on board (Euro) I'm not buying it. Sure would be awesome for my ski trip though! My gf's school would certainly close and I could leave for VT early, lol.

One thing I can promise you though? Based on the above picture, even thought it's the ONLY MODEL showing that, Accuweather, The Weather Channel, and numerous other disingenuous sources are going to pump this storm for NYC, Boston, Philly etc... in the pursuit of ratings and web hits.


EDIT: The Euro should be out probably by around 1:30. Lets hope it bounces HUGE to the north like the GFS did.

 

[ScottySkis]

The timing would be a Wednesday afternoon/night to Thursday am.

But keep in mind, I dont believe the GFS (the map St. Bear posted) with the huge northeastern snow totals above is going to happen.

Think about what has happened almost all winter long. There's been either some slight model disagreement or maybe even model agreement, and then...... with a few days to go...... the GFS does something DRAMATICALLY different than pretty much everyone else, and it's been wrong every time.

So why would I believe the GFS now, when it's doing the same crazy thing its done all winter as the storm approaches? Yes, this would be awesome for ski country if it happens, but until other models get on board (Euro) I'm not buying it. Sure would be awesome for my ski trip though! My gf's school would certainly close and I could leave for VT early, lol.

One thing I can promise you though? Based on the above picture, even thought it's the ONLY MODEL showing that, Accuweather, The Weather Channel, and numerous other disingenuous sources are going to pump this storm for NYC, Boston, Philly etc... in the pursuit of ratings and web hits.


EDIT: The Euro should be out probably by around 1:30. Lets hope it bounces HUGE to the north like the GFS did.

Will snow hit Elk maybe?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Will snow hit Elk maybe?

Elk is in a bad spot for this storm, regardless of what model is correct.

Most models have this going somewhat northeast and out to sea somewhere in NC or VA or Delmarva (i.e. well south of PA). The GFS takes it MUCH farther north, it's far away from interior PA.

 

[Nick]

I need someone to post a Ski Weather 101 thread so I can sticky it in this forum. I don't understand the difference between the Euro, etc. Would be really useful for a lot of us.

 

[ScottySkis]

I need someone to post a Ski Weather 101 thread so I can sticky it in this forum. I don't understand the difference between the Euro, etc. Would be really useful for a lot of us.

Yes that would be great.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The 12z Canuck just came out and it's a bit north too, but not enough for ski country to take a hit, though it probably would give most peeps a few inches. Better than nothing.

After this panel, the shield fans out as and even VT and NY would get an inch or two.

 

[SnowRock]

As much as I would love some snow.. kind of worried about the impact of this storm on the NJ coast.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I need someone to post a Ski Weather 101 thread so I can sticky it in this forum. I don't understand the difference between the Euro, etc. Would be really useful for a lot of us.

The major players are the:

GFS is American
ECMWF is the Euro = European
UKMET = UK
GEM = Canadian
JPM = Japan (though most weather wonks say it sucks)

There there are other ones like the NAM, which is an American short-range model and the SREF which is ensembles of the NAM, and the RPM etc..., but the GFS, Euro, UK and Canadian models are the ones you'll encounter most often.

 

[St. Bear]

The 12z Canuck just came out and it's a bit north too, but not enough for ski country to take a hit, though it probably would give most peeps a few inches. Better than nothing.

After this panel, the shield fans out as and even VT and NY would get an inch or two.

Trending....trending...trending...

 

[BenedictGomez]

The 18z NAM just went Ka-Pow. This is getting ridiculous.

 

[D-2.5-GT]

Ka-Pow good?

OR

Ka-Pow bad?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Ka-Pow good?

OR

Ka-Pow bad?

Draw a straight line from northern VA through the southern half of NJ, all of Long Island to Boston+Cape Cod = BURIED.

There's no way this is possibly correct. lol