Attn Second Home Owners in Vermont

[x10003q]

Sounds like the market in NJ as well (at least in any of the major suburbs)...crazy here as well.

Yup. There are very few houses available around me in Bergen Cty (NJ) and the houses that come to the market are still getting above the ask.

It looks like Florida RE is softening.

Florida housing market mirroring 2008 crash—real estate analyst

A real estate analyst has warned that Florida's housing market is heading into a prolonged downturn as migration to the state slows.

www.newsweek.com

 

[180]

It's kind of sad but I think the Gen-X ers are the last generation to actually have a fighting chance at the true american dream. From my perspective it was a perfect situation. State college in MA at my time (80's) was $2,500 - $4,000 a semester. LOL
Bought my first house $250K interest at 7.5%ish. Worked my ass off and went up the ladder. Interest went down so refinanced 3 times and also bought and rolled my condo at sugarbush into it. Paid it off quickly. I think my last note was a 10 year note for like 2%.

I have no idea how any generalton after 2000 can afford anthing. It is just insane. I feel really bad for you guys with kids going through it now.

How do they do it, salaries are much higher now. My kids out of college are making so much more than I did.

 

[cdskier]

How do they do it, salaries are much higher now. My kids out of college are making so much more than I did.

And yet it still isn't enough to buy anything close to what my parents were able to buy 40+ years ago.

 

[Edd]

The American dream will just have to die. Even people earning six figures will have to make a choice. Buy a house and have it be your life (some love that), or live a life not preoccupied with your domicile and invest as heavy as you can for retirement. Pick your poison. This won’t apply to those from wealthy families.

 

[jimmywilson69]

How do they do it, salaries are much higher now. My kids out of college are making so much more than I did.

in Civil Engineering, we're paying kids double what I was making out of college 25 years ago. No idea how that compares to inflation, etc. Just stating the facts.

 

[deadheadskier]

I would bet Florida numbers are having a major impact on the national data. That's a unique situation largely driven by insurance costs. My folks insurance on a 2300 square foot home , 2 miles inland and at 15' elevation was almost the same as their property tax. They were paying $5000 a year for home insurance. This won't go down any time soon if ever and is crushing the market. They sold this spring at a 25% drop from where the market was two years ago.

When the 3rd largest market in the country crashes, it's going to nudge national averages down. But plenty of locations are still seeing prices go up.

 

[AdironRider]

And I hear 5k a year for insurance in FL is relatively cheap

 

[SkiingInABlueDream]

How do they do it, salaries are much higher now. My kids out of college are making so much more than I did.

I would bet that's more the exception than the rule.
Edit. More specifically, I would bet that kids coming out of college today on average have less affluence overall than in decades past, even if salaries are higher now.

 

[2Planker]

As a resident in the late 80's I was working 100 hours/week and made $30,000/year.
We were actually on a "working strike" for 10% more, in which the City of Boston did come through right as I was done.

Our graduates now are starting at $185K, BUT have a $500,000 debt from school (not including undergrad)

 

[4aprice]

Interesting read even if our investments are in other states. Our property manager in Colorado has been warning us that the "rental market" is changing along with the actual housing market. We have always been LTR since purchase and are only considering a seasonal rental down the line however, a lot of the people are finding that the STR market is not doing as well due not only to communities, such as our own, making it more difficult with regs and fees but also a change in renting habits. Some people who are not doing so well now with the STR game and either trying to shift into the more long term or recalculating and putting properties up or sale. Watching carefully as we wouldn't mind upgrading at some point.

 

[mister moose]

my rent is roughly 50% the cost... of what it would cost to buy the house we live in assuming 20% down.

When people say "renting is throwing out money", (depending on the time period & geography) they often really don't understand finance well.

I think part of the benefit from home ownership is the forced savings into equity (assuming you don't burn it with constant re-fi or HELOC). Most renters won't have the discipline to save/invest the dollars from payng lower rent vs owning.

It's kind of sad but I think the Gen-X ers are the last generation to actually have a fighting chance at the true american dream.

The American dream will just have to die.

I have more confidence in the work ethic and ingenuity of the general population. Housing may change, but the bigger American dream is to build equity and have some leisure time.

The American dream of the 1800's was to journey west and homestead some land and start a family. No one does that anymore. Dreams change. Your grandchildren will have different dreams.

 

[BenedictGomez]

You are using an exception that proves the rule as if it was the rule here, and even then, only on a short term basis.......Very few markets have the delta of rent vs. own on a monthly cashflow basis of a Park City, Aspen or Jackson Hole.

Well, there's a lot wrong with your post, but you are correct that Park City is a dramatic example.

One of the biggest things you're not understanding is that the rent versus own calculus is now in favor of renters in literally almost all of America.

That's not a theory, it's an easily verifiable fact. And FYI, there is NOTHING NORMAL about this. It is a canary with a black lung.

 

[BenedictGomez]

for a guy that claims to understand finance, you lumping in monthly costs like HOA fees and garbage, which are costs a renter is going to pay as well regardless (whether as part of the rent or on their own) is just poor form.

The comment "lumping in monthly costs" was to arrive at a net carrying sum to create an apples-to-apples cost comp between owning & renting, which is obvious from the entire point of my story.

In fact, it's so obvious I cant imagine anyone else misunderstood that, including you, and this is just one of your famous trolling attempts.

 

[BenedictGomez]

you are basically advocating to try and time the market, which is a fools errand. Buy and hold always wins, especially in resource scarce environments which the housing market invariably is.

Well it's working out pretty well so far! Homes are down here a reasonable chunk since I moved here, just as I speculated for various reasons, not dramatically so, but definitely real money. And the cracks in the foundation are just starting to appear with increasing inventory, increasing prices cuts, and recent MLS Sales showing buyers accepting >= 10% below ask, which has definitely not happened in years. It does seem some sellers are growing skittish.

And FYI, once upon a time I made a decent living trying to "time the market". Still do okay as a civilian.

 

[AdironRider]

Yeah lets compare overall cost of renting vs ownership, without acknowledging that the principal portion of your mortgage is equity where you piss literally every dollar of your rent away. Hint, on almost every mortgage, that is more than the 498 per month in your link.

And yeah sure pal, I'm sure you are one of the 2% or so of stock pickers than can beat an S&P etf. We all totally believe you.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I think part of the benefit from home ownership is the forced savings into equity (assuming you don't burn it with constant re-fi or HELOC). Most renters won't have the discipline to save/invest the dollars from payng lower rent vs owning.

I suppose that's definitely the case for those without much financial discipline. And for most of American history homes HAVE increased in price. But I think this leads to a dangerous perception that many have that that will always be the case.

 

[deadheadskier]

The two reasons why I choose to own are cost containment and housing security.

I've got friends and family who choose the renting route. Most all of them move more frequently than I do and it's often not by their own choice. Building gets sold, owner decides to move back in, renovation project, you name it. The price they pay in rent these days vs my mortgage is insane. Then there's the whole stress of moving and uncertainty of where you're going to live next.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Yeah lets compare overall cost of renting vs ownership, without acknowledging that the principal portion of your mortgage is equity where you piss literally every dollar of your rent away. Hint, on almost every mortgage, that is more than the 498 per month in your link.

If renting is literally saving people on average 40% every month, why on earth are you so big-swinging-balls about equity you're "building" in a home, let along calling renting "pissing literally every dollar away" here?

I hope your wife balances your checkbook.

 

[AdironRider]

Benedict hasn't spent a lot of time in a ski town yet, but very few renters in ski country make it more than a few years in each rental before the owner either kicks them out to airbnb, sell, or for their own personal use. Long term rentals (as in people who actually stay in a place 2-3 years plus) are pretty much non-existent. I couldn't imagine living with that anxiety, especially if I had a family. Army families move less on average than a ski town renter.

That really screws the renting population over and is a large reason (albeit one of many) why most ski communities are so transient.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Again, I am not merely talking about my personal ski town existence. It is cheaper to rent than to buy virtually everywhere in America right now.

This. Is. Not. Normal.

This dynamic is economically unsustainable.