Friday Nor'easter? NCP?

[Greg]

Yeah yeah yeah - this is Accuweather and all, but it's not the first I've heard of a coastal storm late this week:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=0

I wonder if could reamin cold enough for snow inland and at elevation? Looking questionable...

 

[ALLSKIING]

At this point I just don't want the rain.

 

[hammer]

I guess we can all dream...

If this were happening a few weeks from and we had a longer cold stretch before, then I'd be more hopeful, but at this point I just hope that the precip doesn't make it far enough to the north.

 

[Vortex]

I fly in Late Friday night. So your forecast is wrong.

 

[Phildozer]

Looks like NCP.

Trust me folks, once my daughter is born on December 27th, we'll have spectacular snow.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Ncp??

 

[2knees]

non crystaline precipitation.

or rain for the less superstitious amongst us.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Thanks. More acronyms than I care to remember float around in my skull.

 

[ctenidae]

I fly home on Sunday, so I think you'll find tons of snow Thur Fri and Sat, and 65 degrees and rain on Sunday. Gail force winds, torrential downpours, and salt. Lots of salt.

 

[Greg]

I'm seeing some forecasts with sleet thrown in so we're going in the right direction...

 

[Paul]

I fly home on Sunday, so I think you'll find tons of snow Thur Fri and Sat, and 65 degrees and rain on Sunday. Gail force winds, torrential downpours, and salt. Lots of salt.

Who's Gail?

Sounds like one, tough broad....

 

[ajl50]

I'd just like to toot my own horn for a second here- I mentioned the chance of this coastal low here:
http://forums.alpinezone.com/11216-we-might-get-lucky-yet.html
(though i'm a little off on the days)
any the current models still have this pulling out to see as there is a blocking high over the northeast right now that is keeping us cool and looks to be reinforced as the week goes on BUT i could def. see that not happening. If the storm is strong then there is a good chance it just plows into the high and with some cool air at lower levels of the atmosphere we would get snow in the catskills and sourthern N.E.
i'd say there is a 20% of that happening.

 

[SnowRider]

i'd say there is a 20% of that happening.

I say we bump that up to 30 just get our spirits up

 

[ajl50]

Ok. 30%
actually there is a better chance based on both the GFS and Euro computer models for a very large storm system on 12/1. The accuweather 15 day forecast for whiteface which mirrors these models already has "snow"
However the temperature trends in both these models tends to err on the cold side and we all know the difference between 35 and 31.
So....
maybe we get an early xmas present.
who knows.

 

[hammer]

Woke up this morning to forecasts of NCP on Thanksgiving...I'm still hopeful that it won't go too far north but it doesn't look too good. :???:

 

[ajl50]

the latest NOAA models indicate moderate icy precip extending about as far north as the catskills and into Mass. Don't know about timing and that make this weather event more snowy or more rainy.
There is currently alot of debate going on about what's coimning after this storm- into the middle of next week however everybody seems to agree- daytime highs in the mountains will average 35-45 with night time lows in the 20's and no real precip to deal with. Beyond that there is some indications that a strong Greenland blocking pattern can develop and shuttle in some real cold air from days 8-14 and beyond - the bad news is that this cold air would come in the form of a backdoor front from an ohio valley/plains snowstorm.

 

[2knees]

backdoor front from an ohio valley/plains snowstorm.

the worst storm track known to east coast skiers. hope you're wrong on that one.

 

[Greg]

Looks like some mixed precip is working in:

Please, oh please....

 

[ski_resort_observer]

A noreaster is a strong storm that hits the northeast from the northeast, this is not a noreaster, yet. This storm is gonna be a pain in the a##. Hope the folks that are making snow, south of Rutland according to the NWS, can hold onto the snow they have already put down.

 

[klrskiah]

hopefully this all stays south! Right now there is a strong temp inversion, and it is above freezing from about 4k feet up to the summit of mt washington. :smash: