Gas shortage?

[loafer89]

I view higher oil prices in the short term as leading to the increased destruction of the enviornment using the three methods of finding unconventional oil that I described earlier.
The world is an oil junkie, and getting us off the habit will be a long drawn out process. Hydrogen is a good alternative fuel source, the only problem with it is that with the current technology, more pollution is caused in the process of producing the hydrogen, than is saved by using it in the first place.

Solar energy could be used to produce the power/energy needed to make hydrogen, but the current battery storage systems are still not capable of storing the energy from solar panels when it is needed later on in the future.

I have read that research has produced very thin solar cells, that could be applied like paint to the roof tops of buildings, and be used to provide energy for electricity, heating and cooling.

 

[YardSaleDad]

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by this... obviously, we've always had a finite supply, so it technically "peaked" before we started consuming any of it. If you meant, that the world's production output has peaked, well that would require knowing not only the history of crude oil production and exploration but also predicting not only the future political climate but the future of new exploration, technology and output capacity, which, from where I stand, is next to impossible.

For the US oil industry that was about 1970. This was predicted in the 1950s by a [SIZE=-1] geophysicist[/SIZE] named [SIZE=-1]Dr. Hubbert. [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]It's not impossible. It's relatively simple math. No calculus required. We are currently at the global oil production peak, give or take a year or two.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak

[/SIZE]

Currently available options are limited, yes. However, nuclear (fission) power is far, far less "messy" than coal is when all is said and done. We don't build any new fission plants currently for safety concerns, which are at present, rediculous at best.

I disagree with those statements. Ramping up nuclear production production to levels required to replace petroleum would require an order of magnitude increase in the number of nuclear plants, even if there was enough fuel(Uranium is limited too). The waste stream would be significant, even if we resume breeder reactors. That is assuming that we can operate that many plants indefinitely without accidental discharges or another chernobyl. Yes I know it was an old, unsafe plant, with inadequate safety measures, but we are only human and accidents will happen.

As for the others you mentioned, solar is still far to expensive, hydro power has too much environmental impact for widewpread use, and so far, too many of our environmentally minded citizens have found wind power too "ugly" for their tastes.

I was hasty in making it an either or choice. I believe that we will see all the above technologies implemented, including nuclear. The decisions will be in the proportions we choose for each. Market forces will obviously play a role. The key point I was making is that, none of them will be able to completely bridge the gap of declining petroleum production. Conservation will not be a choice. It is inevitable.

Within the next 60 years I predict the advent and widespread use of sustainable fusion reactions at which time will be able to produce as much electrical energy as we need.

I find that overly optomistic given the current state of fusion research and the miserly government funding. We currently have all our eggs in the deuterium basket and have actively suppressed investigations into the other fusion reactions like He3<->He3 which has the potential to provide the energy production Nirvana you describe.

It's also too bad that while you observe fuel consumption rates of 30-40 mpg with your xB, you would be seeing much more if Toyota had gone with a style more conducive to an efficient aerodynamic profile.

While economy was an important factor in my purchase, it was not the only one. When my xB is a gas hog compared to the other cars on the road we can discuss drag. For now, I will continue to use it to haul stuff, like a dozen 2"x10"x8' planks of lumber inside with the doors all closed. Try that in a honda civic.:wink:

The more we try to proactively change undesirable price in supply/demand chains, the more imbalance and resulting problems we create.

The only problem is that costs factor are ommited. I really would like my grandkids to live in a world that has glaciers. We are running a science experiment on the earth with no idea what the outcome is going to be.The past century has shown the benefits of being proactive in protecting the environment. It has also show the huge costs of being short sighted. The coming energy crunch will highlight costs that have been hidden by cheap energy in the sprawl of a disposable nation.

 

[Marc]

precisely. though i disagree that we should not be proactive. free market economics relies on businesses investing in proactive R&D to create solutions to what the market sees as problems. this is part of the reason i look forward to increased gas prices despite concern for my pocket book, it will spur viable and cost efficient alternatives into wide spread use.

Good call, Steve, instead of saying this:

"and therefore all feel better by thinking of solutions that can be enacted proactively"

I should've wrote this:

"and therefore all feel better by thinking of policies that can be enacted proactively"

I am very much for private R&D and it's role in free market economies. In that we should be as proactive as possible. The company I work for, FM Global, couldn't exist as it does today without it. As a matter of fact, I work at the largest enclosed fire test and research center in the world.

A strong R&D arm of a company has historically made the difference between fairly successful corporations and the truly great ones such as Motorolla, IBM, FM, etc.

 

[riverc0il]

i think there is room for policies to be proactive as well. economics are fairly reactive in that solutions are not developed unless there is demand. even if there is demand (there currently is for fuel efficient vehicles), if there is no market (cost is currently too high) then the technology does not become wide spread. honda had a car 10 years ago that could get 50 MPG and no one batted an eye. any ways, point is that sometimes proactive policies help when the market isn't being influenced by current short term needs. energy and environmental issues and fuel are quickly becoming long term issues, else we will have a repeat of the environmental issues following the industrial revolution on a MUCH larger and grader scale. a 100% complete reliance on the market puts too much faith that individuals and companies would do the right thing when properly motivated. long term sustainability is going to require doing the right thing before it is too late, before the motivating factors have laid themselves out. tax incentives could help get the ball rolling, and i am the first to get in line against corporate welfare, but this is a rather special and important issue in our times.

 

[YardSaleDad]

A strong R&D arm of a company has historically made the difference between fairly successful corporations and the truly great ones such as Motorolla, IBM, FM, etc.

A convincing arguement can be made for just the opposite.

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2005/10/does_rd_spendin.html

It's not the size that counts, it's what you do with it

 

[skibum1321]

indeed. economics and supply/demand issues and politics are completely unrelated.

I don't think that's true at all - there are so many intertwined factors here that it is often difficult to seperate them.

no one has any right to complain about gas at the pump, there are alternatives.

What exactly are the alternatives at this time? I don't know of any production cars that don't use gas. Even if you have a hybrid car, it runs on gas. Although fuel efficient cars require less gas, you are still dependent on it.

I would love to see wind power take off, although everyone seems to have the NIMBY complex about wind. For some reason, they would rather have an ugly oil rig or coal powerplant in their backyard than an aesthetically pleasing (IMHO) wind mill. Case in point - Cape Cod.

 

[ALLSKIING]

People in my area seem to be using solar power more and more. I would like to see all new houses be required to have part of there roof be solar. That would make a huge difference with all the new buliding that is going on. I have seen a savings of $150 a month in some houses.

 

[riverc0il]

I don't think that's true at all - there are so many intertwined factors here that it is often difficult to seperate them.

What exactly are the alternatives at this time? I don't know of any production cars that don't use gas. Even if you have a hybrid car, it runs on gas. Although fuel efficient cars require less gas, you are still dependent on it.

the fact is the american styled capitolist system is going to go marching on regardless of what politics are currently occuring. there is the issue of subsidies, tax breaks, corporate welfare, rules & regulations, etc. and other such devices that tamper with pure unabridged free market (justifiably so, i might add), but regardless, the economic system goes marching on. it is perhaps the one single thing in america i believe is least likely to change in my life time.

yes, hybrid cars are indeed alternatives. since you use less gas, you pay less at the pump. i have no idea what the MPG is on hybrids, but it must be at least double your standard 4 door sedan? you would save at least 50% at the pump. nothing :angry: :angry: :angry: me more than people driving cars that get less than 25 MPG complaining about gas prices. a gallon of gas is still cheaper than a gallon of milk. it is about time we woke up and realized we are only beginning to pay for what the true value of fuel really is. if we want to continue paying the same price we currently are paying or less, we need to adjust our spending habits, driving habits, seek alternatives (bike, walk, car pool, public transit, etc.), and look into high MPG cars. you can get non-hybrid vehicles that get 40 MPG. why aren't people doing this? because it is easier to b**** than take personal responsibility for our decisions.

/rant

 

[salida]

because it is easier to b**** than take personal responsibility for our decisions.

I couldn't agree more, people will complain about anything. The last person they look at is themselves when they dont like something.

 

[loafer89]

Four of my neighbors have Hummers, three have Escalades, lots of personal responsibility on their part:-? :roll: :dunce: .

I cannot even imagine how much money they spend for gasoline each week.

 

[ckofer]

It's too bad we don't find more ways to recover some of our energy. For instance, the energy used in refrigeration/air-conditioning and clothes drying usually becomes wasted heat that could be used to warm water.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

I guess I have a diferent take on this whole gas price thing. We are going thru a very exciting time in regards to alternative sources.

In the western US there are now enough wind farms, mostly in Californis producing enough energy for it to be put in the western grid. Aspen Ski Corp, for example, went totally wind produced energy a few months ago and there isn't a wind turbine for hundreds of miles. They are willing to pay alittle more for their energy to become part of the solution.

Wind farms are being proposed all over the US, several right here in NE. Sure, they face an uphill battle but as Steve pointed out, higher energy prices will maybe help grease the wheels of change.

Everyone talks about the increasing demand for oil from China but you don't hear much about the efforts of Chinese companies like Sun Tech who are growing so fast they are becoming world leaders in the production of photovoltaic solar cells (PV cells) and solar electric systems. Royal Dutch Shell is already a world leader in this business.

I also chuckle about all this talk about the huge profits being racked up by the oil companies. At the pump they have an incredibly small profit margin, 7-10 cents per gallon. The profits are huge cause the companies are huge. The refineries are ones making out like bandits.The profit margins for companies producing bottled water is 200%, now that's disgusting.

The factors that have caused this problem have been an accident waiting to happen. I am hoping that the saying, "no pain, no gain" holds up for this situation. I have great hope for alternative energy in the years to come. Just wish it would move alittle faster.

 

[ckofer]

I suppose we could look at our own conduct as skiers. How many huge SUV's show up on the mountain with only two people in them?

 

[riverc0il]

I also chuckle about all this talk about the huge profits being racked up by the oil companies. At the pump they have an incredibly small profit margin, 7-10 cents per gallon. The profits are huge cause the companies are huge. The refineries are ones making out like bandits.The profit margins for companies producing bottled water is 200%, now that's disgusting.

Word! People are quick to point out the CEO of one of the big gas companies is making millions upon millions a year, but what CEO isn't? The problem isn't the gas companies themselves, the problem is CEO culture in the United States! I suspect the reason why gas companies had such a big year is they probably make the same percentage margin regardless of cost. So if prices are increased, even though their percentage margin is unchanged, their profits go up! Works that way in many businesses, when cost increases so do profits since profit is based on a standard percentage margin off the cost. Gas companies do benefit from increasing costs, but usage goes down as gas prices rise. Obviously not quite enough since we have a problem! This is indeed an exciting time for alternative sources, but I think we need to be smart about how we pursue our future energy needs and not jump into anything. That means we are going to need a few years of transitioning thought and behavior during which prices are going to keep going up. Way up.

 

[ALLSKIING]

It's too bad we don't find more ways to recover some of our energy. For instance, the energy used in refrigeration/air-conditioning and clothes drying usually becomes wasted heat that could be used to warm water.

I found a vent that redirected the heat from when I am drying clothes. Problem was it is a moist heat and even though the screen was very fine it still created a good amount of dust. But it did heat my basement while drying.

 

[skibum1321]

the fact is the american styled capitolist system is going to go marching on regardless of what politics are currently occuring. there is the issue of subsidies, tax breaks, corporate welfare, rules & regulations, etc. and other such devices that tamper with pure unabridged free market (justifiably so, i might add), but regardless, the economic system goes marching on. it is perhaps the one single thing in america i believe is least likely to change in my life time.

yes, hybrid cars are indeed alternatives. since you use less gas, you pay less at the pump. i have no idea what the MPG is on hybrids, but it must be at least double your standard 4 door sedan? you would save at least 50% at the pump. nothing :angry: :angry: :angry: me more than people driving cars that get less than 25 MPG complaining about gas prices. a gallon of gas is still cheaper than a gallon of milk. it is about time we woke up and realized we are only beginning to pay for what the true value of fuel really is. if we want to continue paying the same price we currently are paying or less, we need to adjust our spending habits, driving habits, seek alternatives (bike, walk, car pool, public transit, etc.), and look into high MPG cars. you can get non-hybrid vehicles that get 40 MPG. why aren't people doing this? because it is easier to b**** than take personal responsibility for our decisions.

/rant

I absolutely agree that we need to look for alternatives and hybrids are the best we have right now. They are not the answer though. What do we do with all of these dead, toxic batteries that last only a little over 100,000 miles? We need to look for ways to run cars without gas at all. That is the only true alternative. By using the word alternative, you are implying that we would not be reliant on gas at all. While hybrids allow us to be less reliant, we still need gas to run the cars. And I agree that bikes are a viable alternative, but only for very short distances and if you don't need to carry more than will fit in a backpack. Unfortunately this is not usually the case so that doesn't really work for a large percentage of the time. Even if it did work, the culture in this country is such that people are too lazy to walk or ride their bikes if they only need to go a couple of miles.

 

[ctenidae]

Biodeisel's booming, too. There's a soybean refinery opening in my hometown in Arkansas this month, and another one about 100 miles west (that one's being operated by Eastman Kodak, of all companies). Good thing, too, since the Gov't cutting farm subsidies for soybeans this year. Hopefully the increase in demand will help boost proces. They're losing 100 farmers this spring in Arkansas County without the subsidy. Not a good thing.

But back to energy- wind energy is great, if you can get past the NIMBYs. Florida Power and Light is investing heavily in wind, but if they get creamed in MAryland like it looks like they will, it could set them back pretty far. As for solar, the money needed to fund PV research just isn't there- investors are hesitant because the technology is at sort of a breakpoint- the next leap in efficiency is going to be huge, but expensive to do, and there isn't any government funding for it.

 

[ctenidae]

By the way, gas in Venezuela is 14 cents a gallon.

 

[ckofer]

By the way, gas in Venezuela is 14 cents a gallon.

Do you think it's worth the drive?

 

[dmc]

Do you think it's worth the drive?

Could you pick me up a little something wile your there?