Killington: Centex bailed out

[smootharc]

Don't forget to consider....

$50M is the offer I'd make using discounted cash flow analysis factoring in interest rate risks, beta to comparables, the predicted southern migration of the lesser laughing loon in 2009, and the color of lint in my belly button.

one of the most important factors....ear wax density and flavor. Sheesh....what kind of businessman are you ?

 

[SkiDog]

Sorry about teh $50 million ffor Steamboat slip- I knew it was Steamboat, and I knew $50M had been mentioned, but I didn't feel like going back to check my facts.

$50M is the offer I'd make using discounted cash flow analysis factoring in interest rate risks, beta to comparables, the predicted southern migration of the lesser laughing loon in 2009, and the color of lint in my belly button.

What color is it???

M

 

[ctenidae]

smootharc Don't you know that ear wax has fallen out of favor for valuing anything other than small, family owned water parks? Get with it, man!

SkiDog It's bad luck to tell.

 

[JimG.]

I'm more interested in the skiing aspect of resorts and admit I'm not too interested in the financial underpinnings, but it seems to me that Killington has been in a death slide for the past few years and that process seems to speed up with every passing year. As much as they say it doesn't matter, having a major business partner back out of a deal is never good PR and can't possibly help them.

If they don't get their act together soon, I'm thinking the owners and managers of Killington might just wind up eating ear wax among other things.

 

[thebigo]

tin woodsman can you site your source claiming:

"The entire state except for K-Mart and Mt. Sneaux was up slightly (a couple thousand skier days). "

This is not what I have heard and the intrawest financial report at the following link claims Stratton was down 11% through the end of March. I have a hard time believing Stratton made up the difference in April.


source: http://media.integratir.com/IDR/financials/ITW Q3 F06 Report.pdf

 

[tree_skier]

tin woodsman can you site your source claiming:

"The entire state except for K-Mart and Mt. Sneaux was up slightly (a couple thousand skier days). "

This is not what I have heard and the intrawest financial report at the following link claims Stratton was down 11% through the end of March. I have a hard time believing Stratton made up the difference in April.


source: http://media.integratir.com/IDR/financials/ITW Q3 F06 Report.pdf

I too have a hard time believing the entire state was up except snow and k-mart. Magic? was closed most of the season, MRG again not a great year, Bromley may have picked up some magic traffic but all in all it was an awful season and any area without either the ability or money to make a ton of snow couldn't have had a great season.

One thing about this forum is they love to bash ASC

 

[highpeaksdrifter]

One thing about this forum is they love to bash ASC

That's true. You would think that it's cause people don't like corporate skiing, but Interwest usually gets a pass. For example, I here Tremblant is falling apart, but you never hear a peep in here about it.

The last ASC area I skied was the Canyons which I like. I hated Mt. Snow and Kmart way before ASC took over so I have no first hand opinion one way or the other about them.

I did ski Sugarbush when ASC owned it and they had put alot of money into it.

 

[ctenidae]

I think "The entire state was up" is an extrapolation of VT being down 6%, while ASC was down 20%. Logically, everyone else must have been up. That's the new math going on there.

Or something like that.

 

[Geoff]

I think "The entire state was up" is an extrapolation of VT being down 6%, while ASC was down 20%. Logically, everyone else must have been up. That's the new math going on there.

Or something like that.

North of I-89, they had a much better season.

 

[Greg]

The entire state except for K-Mart and Mt. Sneaux was up slightly (a couple thousand skier days). It was only the ASC resorts who posted huge losses.

This is not correct.

Overall, skier visits at American Skiing Company's seven resorts dropped 6.9 percent during the 2005-2006 ski season to 3.7 million. The company's five eastern resorts, including Killington and Mount Snow in Vermont, saw skier visits plummet an average of 15 percent.

The fact that skier visits were down at ASC's resorts came as no surprise to Parker Riehle, president of the Vermont Ski Areas Association, though he said the size of the decline at Killington/Pico and Mount Snow seemed "awfully high."

"Overall, the Vermont ski industry fared somewhat better than that and certainly better than what the Northeast experienced," Riehle said.

Source

The entire state was down nearly six percent for the season. I'm pretty sure this was not just attributed to Mount Snow and Killington/Pico.

Source

 

[Bubbartzky]

This is not correct.


Source

The entire state was down nearly six percent for the season. I'm pretty sure this was not just attributed to Mount Snow and Killington/Pico.

Source

I will try to find the numbers that were reported in the newspaper but ASC's downturn amounted to much of the state's total downturn. On the other hand, I don't believe the ASC numbers represented reality in that they changed their method for counting skier visits this year and that probably had a lot to do with the shift in numbers they experienced.

 

[thebigo]

I was doubtful of the claim that kmart and snow were responsible for the entire decline in skier visits for vt so i did the math as follows:

kmart 04/05: 985,962
kmart 05/06: 795,400
net loss: 190,562

snow 04/05: 523,698
snow 05/06: 429,822
net loss: 93,876

vermont 04/05: 4,400,000 (cant seem to find an exact figure, but 4.4M is widely reported)
vermont 05/06: 4,147,467
net loss: 252,533

net asc loss: 284,438

Therefore it appears that ASC was responsible for the decline in skier days last year. I find this difficult to believe, especially knowing stratton was down 11%, mrg closed early and magic was closed much of the year. I also thought I read somewhere that Burke was down this year but dont beat me up if this is wrong, maybe summitchallenger can confirm. This means a couple resorts had monster years, maybe everybody followed the fresh to jay and stowe?

When looking for the vermont skier number I stumbled across following article in SAM stating ASC was responsible for the decline and the rest of the industry was flat.

Therefore I stand corrected although I will also say kmart failed to scan me even once atleast 20% of my days.

Sources: http://www.saminfo.com/news/article.php?tid=878
ASC skier visits were taken from earlier in the thread

 

[thebigo]

That is a good point bubba about ASC changing the method of calculating skier days and considering the number of times I was never scanned it could account for some of the decline.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

With kmart and Mt snow's decrease fairly equal to the state's skier loss in skier visits does not mean other Vermont resorts did not have decreases in skier visits. Some resorts were probably up, some were even and some were down.

To be honest tho, something does not add up here. Can't some of the losses be attributed to the simple fact that last ski season the resorts were open fewer days vs the previous season?

I also wonder if all the resorts in Vermont reported to VSAA for their -6% figure.

 

[SkiDork]

I too have a hard time believing the entire state was up except snow and k-mart. Magic? was closed most of the season, MRG again not a great year, Bromley may have picked up some magic traffic but all in all it was an awful season and any area without either the ability or money to make a ton of snow couldn't have had a great season.

One thing about this forum is they love to bash ASC

ASC deserves to be bashed. They've been given a reasonable chance to correct their flaws and haven't done so. So now it's clobberin time!

 

[Greg]

net loss: 252,533

net asc loss: 284,438

Therefore it appears that ASC was responsible for the decline in skier days last year.

Your conclusion is unfounded. This would only hold true if all other resorts had a roughly zero net loss/gain. As SRO points out, there are several other resorts that could have had large drops. Others (especially in the North) may have even been up...

 

[ctenidae]

You also have to remember that a 1% drop at Killington is big numbers, probably comparable to a 10% drop at MRG, or even a 50% drop at Magic. (okay, maybe that's an exaggeration, but you get teh point)

 

[Lostone]

I think a big thing missed in the financial info is that if they count skier visits as when pass is scanned, and tey have sold a bunch of really cheap passes, they can increase skier visits and make less money.

Now, If I'm being asked to put money up to build someplace and I see it being overly crowded and making less money than the year before... I'd want to think before I jump.

(Hey Greg, Can we get some of these smilies over at SkiMRV?)

 

[Geoff]

I think a big thing missed in the financial info is that if they count skier visits as when pass is scanned, and tey have sold a bunch of really cheap passes, they can increase skier visits and make less money.

I think this is a big pile o' obfuscation on the part of ASC. They had a huge drop in skier visits. They explain it as, "We changed the method we use to count season passes." Complete B.S. ASC has had that mETICKET direct to lift program for years. It's quite difficult to ski at any of their resorts all day without getting scanned. They might miss a few percentage points of the season pass skier visits count but they're certainly counting day tickets properly. No way it's off by the hundreds of thousands of skier visits they were down last winter.

ASC is losing business because their product quality has deteriorated. Period.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

This is not correct.


Source

The entire state was down nearly six percent for the season. I'm pretty sure this was not just attributed to Mount Snow and Killington/Pico.

Source

This is not correct.


Source

The entire state was down nearly six percent for the season. I'm pretty sure this was not just attributed to Mount Snow and Killington/Pico.

Source

Actually, it IS correct. I should have spoken more clearly. The rest of VT, as a whole, was in fact up slightly. I'm sure there were individual resorts other than Mt. Sneux and K-Mart who were down. However, it's simple math.

We know how many skier days were lost at the ASC areas.
K-Mart = 190,000
Mt. Sneaux = 95,000
Total ASC in VT loss = 285,000

We know how many skier days were lost across the state of VT.

Now that I look up thread, I realize thebigo did the numbers for me, so I won't repeat it. Whether other resorts lost a couple thousand skier days is irrelevant - these two were clearly the biggest offenders. In sum - I'm not bashing ASC for the hell of it. I am lampooning them b/c they accounted for all the losses in skier days in VT. When you consider their pathetic mgmt of their balance sheet, ongoing poor customer service, shrinkage of the K-Mart season by two months, and general lack of attention to delivering a quality product, I don't see how you could not criticize them.

Honestly - what have they done right since their IPO? Lower pass prices? I guess that's good for skiers (though given the skier visit numbers, they don't seem to realize it) but it simply drains the company of much needed revenue for future investment while destroying their brand.