Saddleback

[deadheadskier]

The only time I skied Saddleback was the last year of the Kennebago T-Bar. It was a Saturday in February after a rain event. They had one groomed run each off of the two T-Bars, two off the Rangeley and the beginner run down below. Everything else was glazed over from the rain and barely skiable. The line for the Rangeley was 20-30 minutes most of the day. I was quite surprised and thought it was a bad decision when they replaced the Kennebago with a quad the following summer and not the Rangeley.

The only reason I have booked our family ski vacation there for this winter is because they are replacing the Rangeley.

I'm hopeful that the new HSQ investment hasn't taken away from their snowmaking and grooming budget. They need to be able to offer more than five skiable trails midwinter following a rain event if they are going to be successful in syphoning off enough skier visits from Sugarloaf, Shawnee and Sunday River to be a sustainable resort. I think given their terrain, elevation and the four season appeal of Rangeley, they very well could get to 150k+ skier visits (at the expense of mainly Sugarloaf, Sunday River and Shawnee) to make it work.

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[x10003q]

x10003q, I appreciate the discourse with you. Many good points.

Thanks, same here.

I do think you are correct, about the first thing that I would have done is change out the old lift. Well, maybe not first, but within a year or two, anyways. It would have been closer to the beginning of the 40 Million spend out.

In the end, it was their money and their choice of what to do with their money. We can all armchair quarterback them to death, but they put their money where their mouth was, and it just didn't work out. I respect that they put their money where their mouth was, something many do not do.

Speaking of money, while they put money into the place, they were selling tickets, and generating some kind of income. They also had operating expenses and wages coming out of that. I'd be interested to know, even roughly, how all of that figures into the financial picture.

This.
Maybe we should have pretended to be Australian developers to get a look at the financials. It worked for S Monsour.:smile:

I truly hope Artaris goes something like the Libra foundation did for Black Mountain of Maine. Deep enough pockets that they made the best decisions they could without having to cheap out and built a solid base. When you cheap out, you tend to pay for it every year in increased maintenance.

All I know is that I will certainly be checking out the resort this winter. Anxiously awaiting snow all over Maine.

I hope Arctaris figures it out. This might be the best season to enjoy SB.

 

[x10003q]

I believe x10003q meant standing in line for the double, and that no-one would have questioned a fixed-grip quad install back in 2004.

My thought also.

Yes. Thank you.

 

[Edd]

Nice.


https://www.instagram.com/p/CFH5Jj0MqBG/?igshid=8cxpxmzq9l7s

 

[jimmywilson69]

5 years!!!! That is amazing generosity. I'm sure Rangley doesn't have thousands of kids in the school but still that's really cool and a great way to get kids and their full price paying parents on the hill.

 

[MEtoVTSkier]

saddlebackmaine


An anonymous donor, with close ties to the region, announced a gift to make Saddleback Mountain and skiing/riding accessible to every child in the Rangeley schools FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS! Yes, minds blown by this generosity and the positive impact it will have on so many kids.

Wow, very generous, for 5 Years.

 

[kbroderick]

Interesting article today, including the tidbit that they're targeting 150-180k skier visits per year, and that they went with the HSQ because otherwise they'd be running out of capacity around 100k.

https://www.pressherald.com/2020/09...s-to-build-solar-farm-new-mid-mountain-lodge/

 

[mister moose]

Interesting article today, including the tidbit that they're targeting 120-150k skier visits per year, and that they went with the HSQ because otherwise they'd be running out of capacity around 100k.

https://www.pressherald.com/2020/09...s-to-build-solar-farm-new-mid-mountain-lodge/

Not quite what they said:

A third fix, he told commissioners, is underway in the installation of a new high-speed chairlift: “The capacity of the existing lift system would max out at about 100,000 skier visits a year and that is a number that cannot sustain Saddleback as a ski resort.”

They went with a quad because the existing [double] chairlift would have been unable to sustain 100k visits. The High Speed over Fixed Grip was a different decision. Both a HSQ and FGQ carry 2,400 skiers per hour, no difference except in ride time and operating costs.

 

[Newpylong]

The third difference, perhaps being the most important, is perception/marketing value.

 

[jimmywilson69]

so is it really reasonable to lure 120-150k skiers to Saddleback? Its really far away from anywhere...

 

[Glade Monkey]

so is it really reasonable to lure 120-150k skiers to Saddleback? Its really far away from anywhere...

They're actually aiming higher according to the article: “Saddleback needs to be in the 150,000-180,000 skier visits a year (range) to be economically sustainable,” Federle said.

Nearby Sugarloaf attracts 400K per season, also per the article. But they also have many, many times the number of condos so a built in clientele.

 

[kbroderick]

They're actually aiming higher according to the article: “Saddleback needs to be in the 150,000-180,000 skier visits a year (range) to be economically sustainable,” Federle said.

Nearby Sugarloaf attracts 400K per season, also per the article. But they also have many, many times the number of condos so a built in clientele.

Oops. Apparently I wasn't fully attentive when I read that.

Re: HSQ vs fixed-grip capacity: yes, theoretical capacity is the same, and it may actually be pretty close if you compare a carpet-load fixed-grip to a detachable. In the real world, global pandemics aside, it's much easier to fill more seats on a detach, with fewer stops, than on a fixed-grip lift with a normal load ramp. (or at least it sure seems that way—I'd love to see someone actually present numbers based on monitoring loading during peak times, but it would be tough to take the customers out of the equation—you'd need similarly experienced guests at both lifts).

 

[Killingtime]

The third difference, perhaps being the most important, is perception/marketing value.

It's been closed for awhile and to be honest, its fallen off the radar for a lot of people. Can they eventually do 40-50% of the business Sugarloaf does? Personally I think its going to be difficult. A lot of my ski friends have never even heard of the place. Everyone knows SR/SL. Saddleback is tentatively on my calendar during the week I was originally planning for Colorado.

 

[Glade Monkey]

It's been closed for awhile and to be honest, its fallen off the radar for a lot of people. Can they eventually do 40-50% of the business Sugarloaf does? Personally I think its going to be difficult. A lot of my ski friends have never even heard of the place. Everyone knows SR/SL. Saddleback is tentatively on my calendar during the week I was originally planning for Colorado.

Five years closed is a long time! The place almost ended up on the NELSAP list. They had to remove the old double chair and t-bar, as both were too far gone to repair.
This season there will only be three lifts: a fixed grip quad for the beginner area below the lodge, the new HSQ going up the middle, and the Kennebago FGQ going to the top. They are promising "fair pricing" for tickets and I bought a "test drive" pass good for any 3 days for $135. I agree that it has fallen off many radars, and think this season their customer base will be mostly Mainers including curious people coming over from Sugarloaf for a day or two. I also think some Jay Peak season passholders may take advantage of two free days there too. Opening day has been set for December 15th. So, if they close in mid April that gives 120+/- days and they would need to average 1000 people per day. I hope for the best and look forward to getting back.

 

[dlague]

Interesting article today, including the tidbit that they're targeting 150-180k skier visits per year, and that they went with the HSQ because otherwise they'd be running out of capacity around 100k.

https://www.pressherald.com/2020/09...s-to-build-solar-farm-new-mid-mountain-lodge/

Let’s go with the idea that they will be open for 150-160 days per season and let’s go with 150,000 skier visits

That averages out to about 1000 people skiing per day - why does that seem high? That is 1000 people every single day! Granted weekends will carry the weight but weekdays it probably will be close to a ghost town.


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[kbroderick]

Let’s go with the idea that they will be open for 150-160 days per season and let’s go with 150,000 skier visits

That averages out to about 1000 people skiing per day - why does that seem high? That is 1000 people every single day! Granted weekends will carry the weight but weekdays it probably will be close to a ghost town.

I'd be shocked if they ran lifts much, if any, beyond Thanksgiving to Easter. Going earlier requires taking advantage of marginal (i.e. inefficient) snowmaking windows; going much later it tends to be difficult to scare up customers.

With that said, assuming 36 weekend days (18 weeks, November to April), 150,000 / 36 is about 4,200 skier-visits averaged per weekend day. That's a bit less than a third of a busy day at Sunday River (based on the numbers cited in the podcast last year); even if you figured 3800 (with the rest being midweek skier-days), that seems...optimistic...for Rangely.

 

[machski]

I don't see this article saying they need to hit 150K skier/rider days THIS season, that is what they need to hit to be sustainable overall. I seriously doubt their business plan would hinge on making that volume of visits in their first season back. I would think 75-100K would put them over the moon this year, pointing to that 150K as being very attainable moving forward.

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[Edd]

Price drops announced on a couple of their passes.


https://www.instagram.com/p/CFPr7CwsE3n/?igshid=173um0gtzdxvv

 

[Killingtime]

Let’s go with the idea that they will be open for 150-160 days per season and let’s go with 150,000 skier visits

That averages out to about 1000 people skiing per day - why does that seem high? That is 1000 people every single day! Granted weekends will carry the weight but weekdays it probably will be close to a ghost town.


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I think 120 skier days is more likely (roughly December to March). If they make it into April I would expect it to be weekends only. Anyway, I've already put Saddleback is on the list this year. If the experience is good I'll be repeat customer. If not, its back to SR and SL for my Maine trips.

 

[kbroderick]

I don't see this article saying they need to hit 150K skier/rider days THIS season, that is what they need to hit to be sustainable overall. I seriously doubt their business plan would hinge on making that volume of visits in their first season back. I would think 75-100K would put them over the moon this year, pointing to that 150K as being very attainable moving forward.

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Agreed; based on what they've said so far, I'd expect it's highly likely they have a master plan to go with that level of visitation, with a plausible timeframe to get there. I just remain skeptical given the driving distance to major population centers, particularly the "it feels like we're about to hear banjo music" element on a non-trivial chunk of the drive.