Skiing is back!

[Hawk]

I am a construction Manager for large institutional and commercial clients.

 

[EPB]

I am a construction Manager for large institutional and commercial clients.

Nice - I have a good buddy with whom I grew up skiing that works for a large firm doing that type of work down in DC. I suppose it makes sense why you guys are earlier than the investment management world. We'll still be a while last I heard.

 

[BenedictGomez]

A long time ago I posted how I believe a commercial real estate crisis will come to America within 15 years. COVID19 has put my timeline on Miracle Grow + steroids IMO. I give it fewer than 10 years now.

As I've said before, there's no reason why millions of jobs aren't currently done from home, alleviating the need for billions of dollars in commercial real estate rent, electricity, and myriad other expenses (cafeteria & security headcount) etc. My belief was once the gray hairs retire & the millennials inherit the earth, this will occur. But thanks to COVID19, even plenty of the gray hairs should now be "getting" it.

This will also IMO put tremendous financial pressure on high tax, high cost, high rent US cities, as plenty of people will simply move once they're not financially tied-down to an area. I'm one of them. My wife & I are currently studying western states to move to. If I could teleport my New Jersey salary to Idaho or Utah, etc., well, that decision becomes a whole lot easier.

 

[Hawk]

A long time ago I posted about how I believe a commercial real estate crisis will come to America within 15 years. COVID19 has put that timeline on Miracle Grow + steroids IMO. I give it fewer than 10 years now.

As I've said before, there's no reason why millions of jobs aren't currently done from home, alleviating the need for billions of dollars in commercial real estate rent, electricity, etc. My belief was once the gray hairs retire & the millennials inherit the earth, this would occur. But thanks to COVID19, even plenty of the gray hairs should be "getting" it.

This will also IMO put tremendous financial pressure on high tax, high cost, high rent US cities, as plenty of people will simply move once they're not tied to an area. I'm one of them. My wife and I are currently studying western states to potentially move to. If I could teleport my New Jersey salary to Idaho or Utah, etc., well, that decision becomes a whole lot easier.

Large companies like Cushman and Wakefield and CB Richard Ellis have been say that for years. Equity Office basically sold off most of their office building assets 5 years ago. I think they were smart. I think buildings will reinvent them selves in the future. Either way, it mean change and change means more construction for me as uses change.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I think buildings will reinvent them selves in the future.

Floor One will be restaurants, gyms, and retail, Floor Two through Penthouse will be residential apartments.

That's my prediction anyway.

 

[Hawk]

Nice - I have a good buddy with whom I grew up skiing that works for a large firm doing that type of work down in DC. I suppose it makes sense why you guys are earlier than the investment management world. We'll still be a while last I heard.

There are probably 40 buildings in Boston that are in various states of completion right now. That represents billions of dollars of investments. Charlie Baker is getting tremendous pressure from the investors, Unions and the Architects and Engineers to get them finished. It is not good to let half finished buildings sit around. Buildings are designed to be put up, closed in and finished. Leaving them open to the elements for an extended period of time is not a good thing. Also, the production of all the pieces on a High rise is always way ahead of the actual installation, at least it theory. Now you have all those materials sitting around. Owners do not like to pay for these things until they show up on site. So you have people that have put up the cost to buy the materials and will not get paid for months. All a very large intensive for Mass to get construction going.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.

Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!

 

[VTKilarney]

Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.

Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!

But we have to flatten that curve! (Can you even call it a curve anymore?)

I looked into booking a Vermont weekend getaway for Father’s Day weekend. The hotel rates at most properties are insane. It looks like most properties are banking on the restrictions being lifted on June 15th.

 

[nhskier1969]

I think that's likely true. That said, if you're one to believe that the way we in the west are fighting COVID19 is the "correct" way, then Japan did dang near everything "incorrectly", save mask wearing. Pretty much everyone in Japan, China, and South Korea wore masks from the jump. It seems to me to be the #1 most likely Occam's Razor success factor globally thus far.

Which is a good time for another screw Fauci reminder.

"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask"- Dr. Anthony Fauci, March 8, 2020.

Remember at the beginning of all this, we were told that mask are infective for the virus. Then several weeks latter they said we should wear a mask, Unbelievable. I tell you, I would like to have those several weeks back. If the CDC didn't lie to us, the United States would be 10x in a better position than we are now. Lesson learned.

 

[Edd]

Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.

Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!

I agree with the sentiments that we’re just not designed for a prolonged quarantine and we have no choice but to loosen up sooner than later.

If the population of VT explodes by allowing tourism, won’t the cases explode? I presume VT has a fraction of the medical resources of NJ.

That’s what keeps coming to my mind living an hour north of Boston. Cases are low here but if we open up, how bad does it get when people flood north?

 

[icecoast1]

Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.

Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!

And stricter than NY, the hardest hit state in the US

 

[EPB]

If the population of VT explodes by allowing tourism, won’t the cases explode? I presume VT has a fraction of the medical resources of NJ.

That’s what keeps coming to my mind living an hour north of Boston. Cases are low here but if we open up, how bad does it get when people flood north?

I also suspect this is the rationale behind their caution. It would be great to get some honest analysis/reporting on how Florida has been able to fare as well as it has while serving as a magnet all this time. I suspect the heat, minimal contact between visitors and locals and the fact visitors all return to the northeast/wherever else are contributing factors. Just a guess.

 

[tumbler]

Remember at the beginning of all this, we were told that mask are infective for the virus. Then several weeks latter they said we should wear a mask, Unbelievable. I tell you, I would like to have those several weeks back. If the CDC didn't lie to us, the United States would be 10x in a better position than we are now. Lesson learned.

Yeah, this never made much sense and baffled me. Isn't it easy to ask people to wear a mask. Maybe they thought it would create mass hysteria where supermarkets were cleaned of all toilet paper. Oh, wait.

 

[BenedictGomez]

But we have to flatten that curve! (Can you even call it a curve anymore?)

Not with ICU patients. You mathematically cannot have a curve with N=1.

I'd be flipping pissed right now if I was a Vermont business owner who's about to go belly-up with almost no cash on-hand.

 

[dblskifanatic]

Note to self:

Purchase S&P500 call option expiry for the 1st BLS jobs report post moronic government "unemployment incentive" cessation.


EDIT:

I'm already running into potential problems with this idea as apparently the Democrats want to keep that super high unemployment pay going pretty much forever. But if they lose in that bid I'm all over this SPX call option idea.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shahar...y-until-coronavirus-crisis-ends/#147a8529137d

Ahhh! That would be a problem! Why work for 26 weeks or however long it is! Our son got furloughed and is getting $600 more per month than when he was working!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[dblskifanatic]

Looks like I am back to full time work on Monday. The growing consensus is that Charlie Baker will send back all construction workers on Monday. We had an all hands covid office procedures training today in preparation. Not sure if I have to go in right away. I hope not. Some might be interested in the company policies being implemented. So they told us:
- try very hard to not do public transportation or car pool.
- Mask on from car all the way to your desk and back to your car.
- Social distance! All the time as much as as you can.
- Try not to touch any surface. Wear gloves. Bring a stick or something to press elevator buttons.
- No Mask at desk but put one on if traveling around office.
- Desks assignments have been rearranged so that we are not sitting close to each other.
- No eating in pantry or public spaces together. Eat at desk.
- If possible bring lunch, water, soda anything you consume.
- Travel paths in office have been made so that there are all one way. My floor is 100,000 sf with a decent amount of open space so that is easily done.
- No in person meeting for now with groups. One on One or a couple people can be done with masks. but try not to do this.

All doable. I am not happy to go in but we will see what happens. I may not have to go in for a while. As a PM I cen run most of it from home right now.

I have been working from home but about to return to the office June 1st with the same rules.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[Domeskier]

Can we use our elevator button sticks to swat away coworkers who invade our personal space?

 

[kingslug]

Commercial real estate is going to change for sure. No reason to fill buildings with people who talk on themphone all day and answer emails. Hudson Yards should have a fun time with this!

 

[JimG.]

Looks like I am back to full time work on Monday. The growing consensus is that Charlie Baker will send back all construction workers on Monday. We had an all hands covid office procedures training today in preparation. Not sure if I have to go in right away. I hope not. Some might be interested in the company policies being implemented. So they told us:
- try very hard to not do public transportation or car pool.
- Mask on from car all the way to your desk and back to your car.
- Social distance! All the time as much as as you can.
- Try not to touch any surface. Wear gloves. Bring a stick or something to press elevator buttons.
- No Mask at desk but put one on if traveling around office.
- Desks assignments have been rearranged so that we are not sitting close to each other.
- No eating in pantry or public spaces together. Eat at desk.
- If possible bring lunch, water, soda anything you consume.
- Travel paths in office have been made so that there are all one way. My floor is 100,000 sf with a decent amount of open space so that is easily done.
- No in person meeting for now with groups. One on One or a couple people can be done with masks. but try not to do this.

All doable. I am not happy to go in but we will see what happens. I may not have to go in for a while. As a PM I cen run most of it from home right now.

I guess you're lucky they didn't recommend that you float at all times to avoid touching the floor.

Glad you're back to work hope all works out well. Stay healthy!

 

[skiur]

Yeah, this never made much sense and baffled me. Isn't it easy to ask people to wear a mask. Maybe they thought it would create mass hysteria where supermarkets were cleaned of all toilet paper. Oh, wait.

They said not to wear masks because they knew that there was not enough of them.