Smellytele
Well-known member
What about the people that have to work at these open places?
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What about the people that have to work at these open places?
slatham
Well-known member
The media is using the numbers from John Hopkins, which I understand to be the "gold standard".
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Also, the increase in future deaths projected by various models has been a direct result of increased mobility as shown by cell phone tracking data, and the loosening of "stay at home" rules by, I believe, 31 states that will go into affect by May 11th.
Models by definition have a margin of error, and from what we have seen thus far that margin can be large. But we will see.
As far as the IHME model goes, I would disagree. This model seems to be based on a simple bell-shaped curve where this is a fast rise, then a decline which is pretty much symmetric. Apparently the infection in China behaved this way. However, the pandemic has shown a different shape in Europe, where the decline is much slower and longer. The IHME had not changed their base assumptions and the model was starting to look ridiculous. So in one shot they went from 70 k-deaths to 138 k-deaths and blamed it on a lack of social distancing. But that model has been broken for a while.
Hawk
Well-known member
That is a tough one. There is a ton of people that are saying "F*&% it" I want to work. There are others that are forced to work. How do you segregate those people? I guess workers wear masks and gowns, have plexi between them and the patrons. I'm talking about people in the general sense. Call up your health care provider, sign a waiver, and you get a card that show to the ski area ticket window and they give you a ticket. Same at the golf course or at bars or restaurants. This card/waiver you have also waives them of any liability of opening. So you get sick, well then you go to the hospital, the first thing that any hospital does is log you in, they will see you waived your right for coverage for Corona and when you test positive they tell you you have to go home.
As of this afternoon, Massachusetts has more deaths than Michigan, so Mass is in 3rd place after NY and NJ. Early hotspots WA and LA are now #17 and #9 respectively. For Washington, I think it shows that very aggressive social distancing does work, at least in the short and mid term. For Louisiana, it probably has something to do with a warm climate.
On the international front, the United Kingdom now has the 2nd most deaths in the world, after the US.
On the international front, the United Kingdom now has the 2nd most deaths in the world, after the US.
drjeff
Well-known member
I'd say that it's safe to say that their should be an * next to China's reported totals in the worldwide "leader" category
Except in the states that didnt go to such extremes and didnt see the huge infection rates and death counts that many were predicting
I wonder if the majority of people who have the opinion that we should just stay home for months on end will change their opinion once their ability to work from home disappears when they lose their job as the economy gets worse and the ability to make more on unemployment than when working runs out?
VTKilarney
Well-known member
Extending the lockdown until there is a vaccine available to all just isn’t viable.
John9
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Camelback PA just announced they are reopening the resort June 11. So I can take that to mean they will have no issue opening for next ski season? Can't we all just wear N95s under our face/neck gators and ski without issue?
chuckstah
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For sure. There may never be a viable vaccine, but hopefully the medical community hits the jackpot and has a somewhat effective one sooner rather than later.
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You would think. Pretty simple precaution to take if needed. But people are losing their God damn minds about wearing masks in Costco, so compliance will obviously be a challenge.
No shirts, no shoes, no service? No problem for 99.99% of people. But heaven forbid you have to wear a mask
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BenedictGomez
Well-known member
In the entire State of New Jersey you have to wear a mask wherever you go; it's annoying, but I think you get used to it quickly.
Many people wear masks skiing as it is already, this should be a pretty easy one if it comes to that
Edd
Well-known member
While skiing, I simply can’t wear a mask without fogging up to the point where it’s dangerous. I’d want to drop it when I head downhill and put it back up the rest of the time.
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jimmywilson69
Well-known member
That's assuming their county is not in the RED stage, which is a full stay at home order I'm sure. Considering their proximity to NY and all of the NY people who have second homes there who likely brought the virus to that area, I'd say that's an aggressive assumption at best. They are reporting almost 500 more cases than my county and are much less populated.
drjeff
Well-known member
Here's the thing with the N95 masks that folks have been hearing about in the media lots lately.
First off, if the world of medical masks, there are 3 main types that are being discussed these days. The "standard" mask prior to this, and the type of mask that I have worn for the last 20 years as a dentist, is what's called a ASTM level 3 mask. Then there's the KN95 mask and the N95 mask. The KN95 and N95's are quite similar in their design and specs, with the minimum particle bloacking size, and hence overall efficiency of blocking particles slightly higher on paper for the N95's than the KN95's.
The true reality is though all 3 styles of masks, WHEN WORN APPROPRIATELY, are very effective at preventing the wearing from picking up some type of airborne disease from the outside. There also is no concrete data out there that shows that with respect to N95's, they are statistically superior than the other 2 types of mask at preventing COVID-19 infection be the wearer.
This is especially important in my dental profession as since COVID-19 can easily be spread through the air, and many of the devices we use in peoples mouth's generate aerosols, and we're well withing the 6 foot social distancing space while working.
N95's are in incredibly short supply right now. A colleague of mine, called and eventually got through a a fairly senior person at 3M, who is a major manufacturer globablly of N95's and was told that orders placed now, more than likely couldn't be filled until late 2020 or early 2021, based on current order backlog.
Additionally if you look at the cost per mask, in the bulk that I buy them, the traditional ASTM level 3 masks run about 50 cents a piece. The KN95's are currently running in the $3.50 to $6 a piece range wholesale and the N95's are cutrrently running in the $10 to $15 a piece range wholesale.
There's not plethora of GOOD science out there that shows that 1 type of mask, when worn properly is better than the others. If you have a N95 on that isn't fit properly, the person with an ASTM level 3 on that is fit properly is at a lower risk of picking up COVID-19 via airborne sources. Many in the regulatory agencies and media seem to have picked up on the N95 push, since in theory it regarded as the "best" mask out there, however that is more in reference to dusty construction sites (where N95's were mainly used prior to this) than in airborne disease pathogen risk reduction settings.
Bottom line is that the bulk of the general population who may now be wearing a mask for the 1st time, should be far more concerned with if they're wearing is properly and then proper mask "hygiene" such as not constantly adjusting it once it's on properly (you just contaminated your fingers by doing that and then run the risk of your fingers and those contaminants being closer to the entry portals that are your mouth, nose and eyes) than what type of mask you're wearing.
Additionally on the N95 front, having now worn 1 for the last couple of months if and when I have to go into my office for an emergency patient, the airflow through them is reduced for sure over a regular ASTM level 3 mask. To the point where I wouldn't want to be wearing while while doing an aerobic activity
Thanks, Dr. Jeff, I appreciate the info.
So, the ASTM 3 is also commonly known as a surgical mask, right?
When I wear a N95 mask, it seals pretty good around the edges. So the air is forced to actually go through the filter material, at least most of the air. OTOH, the surgical masks have *lots* of gaps on the sides. That seems to be the biggest single difference, other than the actual filter material.
So, the ASTM 3 is also commonly known as a surgical mask, right?
When I wear a N95 mask, it seals pretty good around the edges. So the air is forced to actually go through the filter material, at least most of the air. OTOH, the surgical masks have *lots* of gaps on the sides. That seems to be the biggest single difference, other than the actual filter material.
Maybe I'll open a business selling personalized face masks. Who knows, maybe I can sell fashion versions to the rich and famous.
I'd like a box of masks with big red puckered up lips on them.
I'd like a box of masks with big red puckered up lips on them.
drjeff
Well-known member
Correct.
And there's some good youtube videos out there about how with some simple folding and adjusting of the ear-loop elastics on an ASTM # surgical mask that greatly reduces the gapping potential on the sides that can happen.
And honestly after spending more time than I ever thought I would in my lifetime looking at various studies of the efficacy of the various mask types with respect to COVID-19, there seems to be little to no difference, well let me also say that thus far there haven't been a bunch of mask efficacy studies with respect to COVID-19 as this is such a new disease, in the filtration material that all 3 masks are made of. The biggest difference seems to be that when properly fit, and in theory for an N95 to be properly fitted it has to be fit checked by someone certified to do so, and then it is presumed that every time the wearer of an N95 puts one on that they will go through the exact same process that they did why be evaluated by the certified fit checker.
An interesting study that I read that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine (pretty sure that was the publication journal as I recall off the top of my head right now) last September, looked at over the course of about 8 months, numerous nurses in the ICU's of about 10 major hospitals across the country with respect to N95 masks and the traditional "surgical" ASTM3 masks wearing and during their treatment of patients diagnosed with Influenza A and B, and the results showed that numerically slightly more nurses came down with the flu while wearing N95's than ASTM level 3 masks (it was something like 200 with the N95's and 194 with the ASTM 3's, and there were something like 15,000 potential exposure situation when you factored in all the individual nurses and the number of days they worked in an ICU with patients with the flu over the length of the study. Proper fit, or lack there of was one of the issues with the N95's that may have played a roll in the wearer contracting the flu.
The bottom line as I see it right now, is that proper wearing of a mask, and then proper mask hygiene when putting it on, wearing it, and then removing it, seems to be more important than the actual type of mask in the vast majority of circumstances
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