Snow..coming ???

[sankaty]

This is going to be a very tenuous setup with a decently strong low pressure system heading into a very strong -NAO block. Somewhere across the northeast, it's going to hit the block and be forced to redevelop offshore (or over SE New England) and be shunted southeast. The northeastern cutoff to the precip will probably be very sharp, and the models are going to have a tough time figuring out where to place it. A difference of 50 or so miles could mean the difference between lots of precip and just a cloudy day across much of ski country.

The temperature profiles are also tricky. The column aloft looks cold enough for snow, but the models do show a fair amount of warmer air near the surface causing them to show rain for at least the beginning of the storm in some places. I'm relatively optimistic that if the heavier precip actually makes it into the Greens, dynamic cooling plus the models being too warm at the surface would result in a snowier situation than currently modeled, but that's not certain.

In my view, a fair amount of things need to go right for this to become a major snowstorm over the ski areas (especially northeast of the Catskills), but things could come together, especially for the southern and central Greens. I think it's likely that we'll have a fair amount of uncertainty right up until Friday, though.

 

[BenedictGomez]

As like the last few days, I'm seeing a while lotta nothing here. Gonna' be some disappointed peeps in this thread. Maybe SOMEONE will luck out with 6" or so, but most people will get either nothing or worse, sheer despair.

 

[sankaty]

As like the last few days, I'm seeing a while lotta nothing here. Gonna' be some disappointed peeps in this thread. Maybe SOMEONE will luck out with 6" or so, but most people will get either nothing or worse, sheer despair.

Are you forecasting your despair amounts based on a 10:1 ratio or Kuchera?

 

[Smellytele]

plan for the worst hope for the best with this one. I would cancel anything but I would plan anything new. :0

 

[lerops]

How likely is The Catskills to do well?


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[tnt1234]

Yeah, this is crazy...forecasts all over the place.

 

[legalskier]

Doubtful.

Really? I was relaying something that was told to me last Saturday by a manager at an area here in NJ.

Edit: Elk's website is reporting: "We made snow last night on the Tioga, Susquehanna, Slalom, East and West Slopes"
https://www.elkskier.com/

As I said, don't despair just yet.

 

[abc]

Should have changed the title of the thread "Rain coming?"

With the uncertainty of snow vs rain, and the certainty of high wind, I've decided to cancel my reservation to hotel in Killington

I will gamble with one uncertainty, but not two.

 

[Vaughn]

Still all over the place.

Wunderground thinks Stratton/Snow is getting 8-12" on Friday. https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow shows that to be super localized if true.

Still worried about wind holds on Friday...

 

[sankaty]

Still an extremely challenging forecast. The forecast discussion from BTV reflects how difficult this forecast is:
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...TV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

NAM is still a crushing snowstorm. The GFS still has tons of precip, but lots of warmth in the boundary layer, so much of it rain. The Euro has bumped north a bit. It has lots of precip over the Cats, a moderate amount over the southern Greens, not much from central VT north. The latest Euro actually shows about a foot of snow at Windham, but with 1.88 QPF, so there is a lot of non frozen precip in there.

While still highly uncertain, I think chances for a Friday snowstorm from the Cats to the central Greens has increased a bit. I'm not totally sold on the idea of lots of rain in these areas. My hunch is that if there are enough dynamics to produce more than an inch liquid equivalent, there will be enough cooling to see primarily snow above 2000 feet. I'm thinking of February 25th, 2010 as an example of a storm with a similar airmass where dynamic cooling was enough to give lots of snow to the mountains. My gut tells me that this is either mostly snow or not much of anything in the mountains, but I've been wrong lots of times.

Looks like winds Friday could be an issue.

 

[cdskier]

Still an extremely challenging forecast. The forecast discussion from BTV reflects how difficult this forecast is:
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...TV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

That was the first thing I read earlier this morning...Incredible how much extreme uncertainties there are with this one. On the one hand I hope the NAM is right with how it is modeling the dynamic cooling...but at the same time that solution would potentially make travel on Friday to ski country quite difficult for many people.

 

[Pez]

Forecast I just saw on necn looks fairly promising for southern VT.


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[Glenn]

From NWS Albany's Hazordous Weather Outlook:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A moderate to heavy precipitation event is possible Thursday night
into Friday night as a storm system impacts the region. There is
still much uncertainty as to precipitation amounts and types.

At this time, it appears that higher elevations across southern
Greens, Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills may have the
greatest chances of moderate snowfall accumulations. In addition,
strong winds could also occur.

Possible impacts could be scattered power outages from a combination
of wind and snow, and/or urban and small stream flooding from runoff
from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...


Spotters may be asked for rainfall and snowfall measurements Friday.

 

[abc]

Forecast I just saw on necn looks fairly promising for southern VT.

Even if it’s promising for snow on the ground, will the lifts be spinning given the wind forecast?

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Even if it’s promising for snow on the ground, will the lifts be spinning given the wind forecast?

does it really matter? we're in desperate re-building mode. if rebuilding the snowpack means some days without lift access, then earn your turns or do something else this weekend, with the hope that we can ski natural snow into april

 

[tnt1234]

Catskills could be the sweet spot...

 

[cdskier]

does it really matter? we're in desperate re-building mode. if rebuilding the snowpack means some days without lift access, then earn your turns or do something else this weekend, with the hope that we can ski natural snow into april

Says the guy running away to Canada that won't be here anyway ;-)

 

[BenedictGomez]

How likely is The Catskills to do well?

I'm still a Debbie Downer about this event for most, but if anyone gets the goods, it will be the Cats to Gore'ish.

Wind on both Friday and Saturday could be pretty bad in much of the northeast though.

 

[sankaty]

The 12Z NAM is way south. Still crushes the Cats. Southern Greens get several inches. North of there, not much. The 12Z GFS is also a bit south, but significantly cooler than 6Z. Shows easily a foot+ for the Cats with significant snows also in the southern and central Greens.

I don't have much faith in general in the NAM, so not worrying about that too much. I'd feel pretty good about decent snows in the higher elevations of the Catskills, as the Euro is also showing a fair amount of snows there. S VT also has a reasonable chance of heavy snow. Chances are dicier the further north you go in VT, but still lots of uncertainty there. If the Euro shows more precip into central VT on the 12Z run, that will increase confidence. If not . . .

It's such an anomalous set up. I expect some surprises, good and bad, by Friday afternoon.

 

[Jully]

I'm still a Debbie Downer about this event for most, but if anyone gets the goods, it will be the Cats to Gore'ish.

Wind on both Friday and Saturday could be pretty bad in much of the northeast though.

Will be watching NY in this storm closely. Was eyeing either next weekend or the weekend after (3/17) as a potential trip to Gore or Whiteface if conditions were good.