Speculation about MLK weekend storm....

[Jersey Skier]

So then I thought, okay, maybe I'll bag my plans for n.VT and just get a motel in the Cats Saturday night and ski Platty Sunday since they should pick up a foot or more with less wind and better temp. The problem with that idea is that after raining & icing much of Saturday night into the day on Sunday here in Jersey, temps look to plummet to low-20s by 1pm. What a fun drive home from Platty that would be.

This is my current plan as I was only going to ski Platty Sunday anyway. Then if the storm totally screws up and moves North, the Beast or Magic are only another 2.5 hours. Sunday night would obviously SUCK.

 

[NYDB]

NWS Albany has some interesting stats on potential precip totals for the Albany area: 1.6 to 2.0" Still waiting on the mid day update to the forecast discussion.

' or ''?

 

[tumbler]

The wind forecast seems to be a bit of question also. They don't look too bad, not like a traditional nor'easter. I'm looking at N. VT so maybe they are worse closer to the center of the Low.

 

[JimG.]

If you have not already booked a hotel/motel for Fri, Sat, or Sun night you had better do so pronto...many places I have looked at are already booked solid.

One reason I'm not too concerned about skiing Sunday if I can't get to the Cats. I have a room booked for Mon night up at K and even that was tough to come by given the wind forecasts for this storm many are staying over hoping to get better weather Tuesday.

 

[slatham]

From the mountain forecast website for Killington....

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Killington-Peak/forecasts/1291

and for Mount Snow (there station is actually at the top of The Hermitage for this one)

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Haystack-Mountain-Vermont/forecasts/1050

These are based off of one model, and likely the 5,000' values. Not a real "forecast". I would use:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/mountain

Click on the peak of your liking (except none in SoVT - use Dorset as proxy). Also look at the new detailed hourly.

The winds on this NWS site are substantially less than the other site, but alas do not go out very far.

 

[tnt1234]

The more I analyze this storm, the more it seems absolutely horrible from a powder-hunting perspective. Especially for those pondering the risk/reward of very long travel given the low single digit ambient temps (plus with a breeze) all weekend.

So then I thought, okay, maybe I'll bag my plans for n.VT and just get a motel in the Cats Saturday night and ski Platty Sunday since they should pick up a foot or more with less wind and better temp. The problem with that idea is that after raining & icing much of Saturday night into the day on Sunday here in Jersey, temps look to plummet to low-20s by 1pm. What a fun drive home from Platty that would be.

I'll be monitoring every model run from now through tomorrow afternoon for changes, but as of right now (and I HATE to say this)....

View attachment 24450

Yeah, valid concerns.

Still planning on heading up Sat. night. (Outside shot at leaving early enough for a half day at Bell.) Platty Sunday and crawl home Sunday night for work on Monday.

Reserving the option to bail....

 

[mfi]

I think Im glad I wont be here for this..sounds like a very variable weekend.

 

[tumbler]

I'm pumped!! Finally a storm on the weekend. It will be crowded but whatever. I don't wait all off season to ski to bail on a weekend with a snow storm.

 

[yeggous]

Latest discussion on "Chasing Snow" is up.

 

[GregoryIsaacs]

I'm pumped!! Finally a storm on the weekend. It will be crowded but whatever. I don't wait all off season to ski to bail on a weekend with a snow storm.

It will probably be the one of the most crowded powder days for New England in a couple of years... but hey weekends like this pays the bills and builds the bubble lifts so no complaining necessary.

Luckily I know how to ski my home mountain (Mount Snow) with minimal human interaction and I plan on keeping it that way!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Yeah, valid concerns.

Joe Cioffi just put this out, he's on-board with my thinking:

Regardless of the outcome, New York City and parts of the Tri-State, including Long Island, are going to be in a precarious situation Sunday night and Monday. We’re almost better off getting that 12-18″ of all snow than any changeover to mix or liquid.

A deep freeze is coming Sunday night into Monday; and for all of you old folks out there like me, if we get any liquid or mix involved in this, it’ll look like the episode of Tom & Jerry when they froze the kitchen.

I'm hoping for a dramatic change in the next 48 hours.

 

[xwhaler]

Latest discussion on "Chasing Snow" is up.

Great write-up and analysis---definitely helps us plan. Looks like Ragged (where I will be all wknd) is in a good spot!

 

[MEtoVTSkier]

Luckily I know how to ski my home mountain (Mount Snow) with minimal human interaction and I plan on keeping it that way!

With skins before opening? :lol:

 

[drjeff]

It will probably be the one of the most crowded powder days for New England in a couple of years... but hey weekends like this pays the bills and builds the bubble lifts so no complaining necessary.

Luckily I know how to ski my home mountain (Mount Snow) with minimal human interaction and I plan on keeping it that way!

The "good" thing is even in non powder days on Holiday weekends, a good percentage of the couple of time a year masses over do their under used ski muscles on Saturday, then only take a few runs on Sunday and often bag Monday. Add in a bunch of powder, and my guess is that demographic takes even less runs than normal on Sun/Monday!!

Sunday night though, ski area bars may be quite full with football fans though...

The Bruce Jaques show at Mount Snow in Cuzzin's could be even wilder than usual for sure!!

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[keyser soze]

I'm with Drjeff. Add in some frigid temps and wind and i think the bigger problem will be keeping warm. Only die hards will be skiing, although the mountain lodges and parking lots will be packed. Pro tip-wear your bat thermal underwear-and allow your package to warm up in the lodge for a while before attempting to pee-----shrinkage factor.

 

[abc]

[FONT=&quot]I'm hoping my house in CT stays in the sleet zone and not into the rain zone (it looks like [/FONT][FONT=&quot]I'm hoping my house in CT stays in the sleet zone and not into the rain zone (it looks like it's going to be close right now) or else when I get home from VT Monday evening, I may not be able to find the asphalt of my driveway until the multi-day run of above freezing temps!!

My house is definitely in the rain zone.

I’m feeling quite conflicted. Though the ski condition is looking rather horrible. Staying home may not be any safer either...

[/FONT]

 

[drjeff]

I'm with Drjeff. Add in some frigid temps and wind and i think the bigger problem will be keeping warm. Only die hards will be skiing, although the mountain lodges and parking lots will be packed. Pro tip-wear your bat thermal underwear-and allow your package to warm up in the lodge for a while before attempting to pee-----shrinkage factor.

As me and my dental school friends who I have season tickets to the Patriots say on COLD weather game days when "nature calls".... Keep tugging at various layers until it feels good, and then you know it's time to go!! Lol!!!

And on a side note, if the Patriots were hosting the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP on Sunday night, given the forecast, how CRAZY would that game be?!?!

On the flip side, I'm glad Sunday evening, all I have to do while in VT is walk about 100 yards down the street in my condo complex to my friends condo who offered to host a party for the Pats game!! [emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[Glenn]

Looking pretty good for SoVT according to NWS...12-20"....with up to two feet in the Southern Greens.

We won't be heading up this weekend, so we're riding this out in the flatlands. It'll be interesting to see how many people actually venture up north tonight for the long weekend.

 

[mfi]

This is funny..I'm hoping for 8 to 10 in Wyoming and it looks like parts round here may get up to 2 feet. Well I hope so ..nothing like coming back to a buried East.

 

[NYDB]

Looking pretty good for SoVT according to NWS...12-20"....with up to two feet in the Southern Greens.

We won't be heading up this weekend, so we're riding this out in the flatlands. It'll be interesting to see how many people actually venture up north tonight for the long weekend.

anecdotal evidence of course, but pretty much everyone I have talked to is going skiing this weekend.

It's going to be jammed. I expect sunday AM to see cars in ditches everywhere.