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Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 415 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2004
... A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM... A NOR'EASTER... IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE SOME WARMER AIR MAY ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS POTENTIAL STORM, A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST AT BEST. AND, SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION... SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... COULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, ADDING TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING, THIS POSSIBLE EVENT WILL BE BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL MOON, SO NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IF A NEW OR FULL MOON WAS OCCURRING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL OF COURSE BE MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HOW COMPUTER MODELS VARY, BOTH AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT MODEL RUN, WHICH IS MOSTLY EVERY 12 HOURS, TO SEE IF ANY ONE MODEL IS PERFORMING BETTER IN IDENTIFYING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF NOT ONLY THE SURFACE STORM, BUT OTHER FEATURES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS ONLY A POTENTIAL FOR A STORM AT THIS POINT, AND THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING, AS WELL AS TO TYPE AND AMOUNTS, OF ANY PRECIPITATION....
...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 415 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2004
... A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM... A NOR'EASTER... IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE SOME WARMER AIR MAY ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS POTENTIAL STORM, A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST AT BEST. AND, SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION... SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... COULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, ADDING TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING, THIS POSSIBLE EVENT WILL BE BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL MOON, SO NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IF A NEW OR FULL MOON WAS OCCURRING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL OF COURSE BE MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HOW COMPUTER MODELS VARY, BOTH AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT MODEL RUN, WHICH IS MOSTLY EVERY 12 HOURS, TO SEE IF ANY ONE MODEL IS PERFORMING BETTER IN IDENTIFYING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF NOT ONLY THE SURFACE STORM, BUT OTHER FEATURES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS ONLY A POTENTIAL FOR A STORM AT THIS POINT, AND THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING, AS WELL AS TO TYPE AND AMOUNTS, OF ANY PRECIPITATION....
