Vail to buy Stowe?

[VTKilarney]

Salt Lake City is different in one regard. The locals who are season pass holders can easily switch allegiances. But don't the vast majority of season pass holders from Boston or New York already own real estate at either Stowe or Sugarbush? And if they do, then aren't they more locked in? Or are there a decent number of season pass holders that just rent or stay in hotels?

 

[cdskier]

Second, as to what to expect, I can tell you that the Stowe locals will not at all be happy. Here, in the capital of cheapness, everyone and their grandmother jumped onto the Epic Pass in 2013 when Vail came to town. Folks razzed me for not getting it. But living with the former ASC I knew what was going to happen. Sure enough these same folks bitched endlessly about crowding, expensive food, expensive rentals, and expensive lessons, the former being the worst. Park City now on holidays and weekends runs out of parking. Folks have to park at the high school and ride a bus to the mountain. Stowe will see a jump in skier and rider days and the current clientele will not be happy.

...

As to the one resort to watch, that is Sugarbush. They have for years relied on Stowe to justify a premium on their pass products. Now that's gone. I predict that Sugarbush will continue, if not increase, their "localvore" marketing to, ironically, land more of the Boston and NYC markets. They will say, "hey, we're the local ski area you love", "we're not as crowded," "we're real," and probably keep pass prices flat for now.

I think potential crowds you could see at Stowe with the Epic pass potential price-point would be a very strong selling point for other areas like Sugarbush. Maybe the first year people jump ship to Stowe, but after dealing with crowds I could see some people come back to SB. My prediction is SB either keeps pricing flat or reduces it slightly (maybe ~$50-100). People often point to SB as being one of the pricier places, yet at the same time SB also offers a tremendous amount of pass options now where the age range that is paying full price keeps getting narrower and narrower.

No matter what, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

 

[thetrailboss]

I'm not so sure what Sugarbush will do. They already have a lot of cheap pass products out there, just for very specific demographics. I obviously have no idea what the breakdown of the season pass sales looks like between these products, but if not many people are purchasing their expensive single adult, unlimited pass, then it might not change at all as it may well be that most of those passholders are property owners or otherwise too invested.

Regardless of how you slice it though, the unlimited adult pass at SB does look mighty pricey now...

This year was very interesting because, for whatever reason, Stowe jumped into SB's local 20-30's market, albeit quite late. I'd be interested to see how that pass sold.

You're right on about Sugarbush taking what once was a simple two product line (full season pass, midweek season pass), and responding to pricing pressure by fragmenting it so much (full season pass, all round season pass for property owners, midweek full, ME only, ME plus, 20-30's something, Sugar Card, etc.)

 

[VTKilarney]

No matter what, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

If I was Sugarbush I would try to form an alliance with a destination western resort.

 

[thetrailboss]

I think potential crowds you could see at Stowe with the Epic pass potential price-point would be a very strong selling point for other areas like Sugarbush. Maybe the first year people jump ship to Stowe, but after dealing with crowds I could see some people come back to SB. My prediction is SB either keeps pricing flat or reduces it slightly (maybe ~$50-100). People often point to SB as being one of the pricier places, yet at the same time SB also offers a tremendous amount of pass options now where the age range that is paying full price keeps getting narrower and narrower.

No matter what, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

I think you're spot on regarding folks flocking to Stowe next season and then leaving. That happend here.

One other point: Vail is not big on being involved in local biz organizations and is very corporate when it comes to local relations. In PC they have a key PR person, but HQ is calling the shots. Vail also is not big on Ski Utah and does their own thing. So the Vermont Ski Areas Association/Ski Vermont will likely see less involvement from Stowe.

 

[thetrailboss]

Salt Lake City is different in one regard. The locals who are season pass holders can easily switch allegiances. But don't the vast majority of season pass holders from Boston or New York already own real estate at either Stowe or Sugarbush? And if they do, then aren't they more locked in? Or are there a decent number of season pass holders that just rent or stay in hotels?

Yep, that is a big difference. The local market here is significantly larger and has more options. The tourists are of two varieties--the second home owners who have BIG money and the regular "one or two trips a season" crowd who come here. It's kind of the inverse of most of Vermont where the locals don't play a big part anymore and the resorts cater to weekenders who come from out of town. Here, the locals provide more revenue for the ski areas and Utah plates are in a lot of parking lots.

 

[thetrailboss]

If I was Sugarbush I would try to form an alliance with a destination western resort.

That's another thing that we might see happen because SB has remained independent for so long. Guesses as to who they offer a deal with? Well, maybe Snowbird/Alta. Both are also independent.

 

[cdskier]

Salt Lake City is different in one regard. The locals who are season pass holders can easily switch allegiances. But don't the vast majority of season pass holders from Boston or New York already own real estate at either Stowe or Sugarbush? And if they do, then aren't they more locked in? Or are there a decent number of season pass holders that just rent or stay in hotels?

It would be interesting to know the details and break downs. The MRV doesn't exactly have a ton of beds available compared to some other areas, so I'm inclined to think a larger percentage own (or rent seasonally). It is also possible you have a lot of day trippers from surrounding areas. Those people could easily jump ship to Stowe if they are going based only on price. If you compare SB's early season pricing from last year to Epic pricing, you're looking at a $340 difference. Is that $340 premium worth it to avoid crowds? Or do you save the $340, go with Epic and deal with crowds at Stowe but have the added benefit of skiing out west on that same pass?

 

[thetrailboss]

One thing is for certain: I will be staying tuned to hear what you all are seeing in Stowe and Vermont as this moves forward.

 

[BenedictGomez]

As to the one resort to watch, that is Sugarbush. They have for years relied on Stowe to justify a premium on their pass products. Now that's gone.

Definitely agree that Sugarbush is hurt by Vail/Stowe more-so than any other mountain.

People aren't going to want to hear this, but often in industry, acquisitions beget acquisitions. It wouldn't shock me if someone else gets bought in the next year or two. Perhaps SNOW would buy Sugarbush and offer a Sugarbush/Stratton/Mont Tremblant/Steamboat sort of a pass.

 

[thetrailboss]

Another interesting angle on this: the sales agreement was apparently signed on Friday. The announcement was made this morning. All of this took place in the middle of one of the biggest ski weeks of the year and before any spring pass sales. I imagine that this is the buzz on many chair rides this week. Timing is, indeed, everything.

 

[mbedle]

I am just really surprised that they went forward with the sale without the real estate. I can't see the state allowing anymore real estate at the toll house area other than addressing the parking issue. With mountain road backed up for an hour on the weekends, it really comes down to safety with getting ambulances and emergency vehicles up the resort during the morning rush. Their approved master plan limited real estate development to the 35 acres at spruce peak. If history dictates what Vail usually does after purchasing a place is a bunch of the old lift will get replaced. During the shit show this year they have been opening the toll lift up at 7:15 to get people to park down at toll house. Would see that lift replaced with a quad during the summer and maybe the double and triple also being replaced. Trail expansion is possible under the master plan. I think most of that expansion is on the spruce side with a a smaller pod over near the camp ground. With the 30 something pass this year the resort is exceeding its CCC pretty much every weekend, add the epic pass in and its only going to get worst.

 

[BenedictGomez]

My real heartbreak is going to come when Vail buys Smuggler's Notch on the cheap, connects the mountains, tears down the old and builds shiny new buildings all over Smuggs. At least Madonna will finally have a high-speed quad though.

 

[cdskier]

Definitely agree that Sugarbush is hurt by Vail/Stowe more-so than any other mountain.

People aren't going to want to hear this, but often in industry, acquisitions beget acquisitions. It wouldn't shock me if someone else gets bought in the next year or two. Perhaps SNOW would buy Sugarbush and offer a Sugarbush/Stratton/Mont Tremblant/Steamboat sort of a pass.

While nothing is impossible, I just don't see Win selling anytime soon.

 

[thetrailboss]

While nothing is impossible, I just don't see Win selling anytime soon.

Agreed. He is invested in the mountain emotionally.

 

[cdskier]

Agreed. He is invested in the mountain emotionally.

Exactly. It isn't about the money for him at this point. The MRV is his "home" now and he's not leaving.

 

[SnowRock]

I am just really surprised that they went forward with the sale without the real estate. I can't see the state allowing anymore real estate at the toll house area other than addressing the parking issue. With mountain road backed up for an hour on the weekends, it really comes down to safety with getting ambulances and emergency vehicles up the resort during the morning rush. Their approved master plan limited real estate development to the 35 acres at spruce peak. If history dictates what Vail usually does after purchasing a place is a bunch of the old lift will get replaced. During the shit show this year they have been opening the toll lift up at 7:15 to get people to park down at toll house. Would see that lift replaced with a quad during the summer and maybe the double and triple also being replaced. Trail expansion is possible under the master plan. I think most of that expansion is on the spruce side with a a smaller pod over near the camp ground. With the 30 something pass this year the resort is exceeding its CCC pretty much every weekend, add the epic pass in and its only going to get worst.

Well I think that is why there was the big gap between the initial rumors and the deal getting done. I heard they were far apart on a # when it came to complete sale.

Totally agree with what you posted here. I also heard that the 30s pass sold really well and is one the drivers of the weekend crowds in their opinions (has anyone heard chatter form sugarbush that they lost customers to Stowe with that product?). Maybe net impact of adding Epic won't be quite as much without that product? But agree any increase in skier numbers is going to further stress things.

In regards to toll house, can they do much without adding snow making? There aren't very many spots number, so they would need to add a structure + lift + snow making is a lot of dollars even for a Vail. Can anything be done down at the Nordic center?

 

[Jully]

Definitely agree that Sugarbush is hurt by Vail/Stowe more-so than any other mountain.

People aren't going to want to hear this, but often in industry, acquisitions beget acquisitions. It wouldn't shock me if someone else gets bought in the next year or two. Perhaps SNOW would buy Sugarbush and offer a Sugarbush/Stratton/Mont Tremblant/Steamboat sort of a pass.

Oh I absolutely expect 1-2 more acquisitions before the start of next season even.

I actually really look forward to a summer full of on-mountain upgrades though (I hope). Holidays have been huge this year. Hopefully the mountains have a good enough year to recover from last year's fiasco and then some.

 

[cdskier]

I also heard that the 30s pass sold really well and is one the drivers of the weekend crowds in their opinions (has anyone heard chatter form sugarbush that they lost customers to Stowe with that product?).

If SB did, it sure hasn't been a visible impact on the mountain. Keep in mind as well that SB's For 20s pass went on sale way before Stowe announced theirs. And then when Stowe announced their pass that covered you into the early 30s, SB promptly announced a new "early 30s" pass option to compete.

 

[benski]

I believe a large portion of sugarbush skiers are pass holders from Burlington, Waterbury and Montpelier, and the majority of there skiers are Passholders. They are difficulty vulnerable to Stowe's pass prices. I think this year they introduced an early thirties pass to compete with Stowe's only after Sugarbush started selling passes and Stowe released theres.