Weather for the next few weeks

[TwinTips21]

Looks like a warm up early next week with freeze-thaw conditions everyday until a few days before Christmas where the pattern change will finally happen. We are in the middle of a pattern change right now waiting for both the NAO and PNA to go negative. I believe one of them is negative at the moment. Once the patter finally changes right before Christmas we will be back to average-below average temperatures and hopefully a major storm just in time for christmas. Until then we will at least have nighttime snowmaking temps and daytime upper 30's to lower 40's south. (this of course beginning early next week)

 

[ajl50]

They both are positive right now. As is the the Artic Oscilation. I think that we'll want this to go negative more than anything as it, in my opinion, is what sends us the cold air. The NAO sends us coastal storms- which while great in some respects aren't really that productive for northern VT and the adirondacks. I'd just assume have a cold period with a few clipper systems than have a negative NAO storm.
I think we'll have great temps for skiing through mid next week. Then, like twin-tips said, we'll have that mild period till around the 20-22nd. I would not say we're looking at the blowtorch we saw at the end of november and nights should remain fairly cold. I'd expect to see valley highs in the upper 40's with NYC highs in the mid fifties. Really it will just be like a typical stretch of early winter warm ups and cool downs. Bascially warm (relative) air over western canada needs to move out over us with a zonal pacific flow before the cold air further north and west to get to us later on.
Actually i think that the more pattern changes we have the better chance we have of snow producing storms as the mixing of air masses and the fronts bring with them moisture and precip.
Anyway- totally a great next 10 days. Bundle up and make some good trip reports.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

They both are positive right now. As is the the Artic Oscilation. I think that we'll want this to go negative more than anything as it, in my opinion, is what sends us the cold air.

Disagree. the +PNA is more likely to bring us cold air b/c that means a ridge over the west coast and general troughiness in the east. The shape of the jet in these situations means, in general, that our air is coming from the NW as the jet climbs over the west coast ridge into northern BC/Yukon, then back down towards us on the backside of the ridge.

The NAO sends us coastal storms- which while great in some respects aren't really that productive for northern VT and the adirondacks. I'd just assume have a cold period with a few clipper systems than have a negative NAO storm.

Yes and no. It's true that coastal storms, while sexy, aren't the big snow makers for northern NE. The best snows for a line north of I-90 in NY, Rt. 4 in VT and Rt. 2 in NH is from clippers and upslope. Even though we have a significantly positive NAO right now, we are still in the midst of a nice little clipper/upslope cycle. Areas from Sugarbush on north have received anywhere from 6-12" or more since Sunday. The forecast seems to be calling for an additional 6-10" through Saturday morning. All in all that's a nice little 12-24" cycle this week w/o any major events. The -NAO is really best for these upslope events when storms pass through our area, and b/c of the -NAO, they are blocked from exiting up into the Canadian Maritimes. When this happens, these storms just sit and spin and throw moisture back over the spine of the Greens for 24 hours or more. That's when you get those 12-18" jobs out of a single event. It's the duration that's key. Research actually indicates that a -NAO is actually better for snow in SNE and the Mid-Atlantic. Coastal storms can't quite get up into NNE when there is a -NAO, at least most of the time. There are always exceptions.

 

[ajl50]

On the first point I see your point on the PNA but I just have had good luck tracking the AO and guessing when cold weather is coming. The PNA is def. a very good indicator and prob. more accurate in the short term.

on the second point
"the -NAO is really best for these upslope events when storms pass through our area, and b/c of the -NAO, they are blocked from exiting up into the Canadian Maritimes.When this happens, these storms just sit and spin and throw moisture back over the spine of the Greens for 24 hours or more."
Totally correct. IMO that's what we could start to see as the storm pattern after xmas through jan. as the nao is forecasted to trend downward.
By the way- Tin Woodsman- you seem interested in weather and storms- have you ever checked out this website?
http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/
pretty entertaining and actually a good example of our point that the coastal storm isn't always all that.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

I've seen that a few times, but I'm more interested in what's going on now and in the future. If you haven't already found it, check out this site to get some good education on impending events and general forecasting. Signal to noise is increasingly lousy, but there are a few pearls of wisdom, especially from the Pro Mets on this board:

Eastern Us Wx

 

[TwinTips21]

Tristateweatherboard is great also. http://p209.ezboard.com/btristateweather

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

PNA? ONA? I feel like Jethro at a MENSA meeting.

 

[TwinTips21]

I feel like im at a spelling convention with posts like yours...

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Didn't mean to come off as a d%ck... sorry. Just saying this level of weather conversation is way the heck over my head

 

[Tin Woodsman]

Didn't mean to come off as a d%ck... sorry. Just saying this level of weather conversation is way the heck over my head

PNA = Pacific-North America Teleconnection. Basically, when you have a positive PNA, that implies high pressure over the western US and low pressure over the East. This is a good thing for winter weather enthusiasts in the East. Negative PNA is just the opposite.

NAO = North Atlantic Oscillation. this refers to the relative position of high and low pressures in the North Atlantic. A negative NAO means you have high pressure in the far north Atlantic around Greenland, with low pressure further south near the Azores. The negative NAO is a good thing b/c if you have high pressure over Greenland, storms and cold weather on the East coast have no where to go - they are effectively blocked from moving out to sea. this is what meteorologists call high latitude blocking. In a positive NAO, the situation is reversed and low pressures over Greenland, with the counter-clockwise movement, help to keep storms and cold air moving right off into the Atlantic.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Thanks. I feel I get it a little better now. GO PNA!

 

[loafer89]

I just look to the West to see what the weather is doing or forecast to be so for the next 7-10 days, as a trough out West usually translates into a ridge in the East with warmer weather. The parade of storms looks set to begin again for the Pacific Northwest by the middle of next week.

It would be nice to see a southern storm track set up for some snow at Mammoth for skiing next summer. I suppose that storm track might be more useful here in the East as opposed to an Ohio Valley or Canadian boarder one.

 

[salida]

Another vote for the Eastern US Wx boards. The pro's on there do a really good job of forecasting not only for specific events. But also for long range pattern expectations. Based on some of these expectations I booked a trip to CO for 12/15-25 when the ice coast will be setting up for a good winter season and the west should still be going off.

A lot of people hate on weather men, especially with the complaint that they don't really know whats going on. However, with the exception of ridiculous questions like how much snow is going to be in my back yard a week before a storm, they are pretty good at overall pattern forecasts, time frames, etc.

By the way, as long as it is cold (AO & PNA) the NAO is not as large an issue for NE, because Northern areas reap the rewards of clippers during a +NAO and more southerly areas benefit during -NAOs....

-Porter