Weather

[TwinTips21]

For once I think accuweather has a good 15 day forecast in terms of temperatures and I hope their forecast in terms of precip is accurate as well. This forecast is for Brownsville, VT (ascutney). I hope the December 24th snowstorm comes true.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipcode=05037&metric=0

 

[ajl50]

Yea...i think accuweather's 15 day forecast for areas north of albany is pretty good. Alot has been said about a warm up recently and sure- things will get more mild. The brunt of the warm however will be really felt in the midatlantic - NYC - south. I think there will be enough cool air just north of the border to keep northern NY, VT , NH and ME in decent shape. There will be a few days (1-3) with highs as high as 45 (which is avg. +12) but the sun will be limited as will be the rain- and with cold nights that's really not that bad. In fact there will even be some light mixed precip thrown in and a few 1 inch accumulations will do alot to prevent too much snow loss.
And if we can manage that patch ok we'll be ok from there as I'm just going with my gut and guessing there will be a good snowstorm sometime from 12/22 to 12/26 that will help set off the holiday right.

 

[Gpaul]

Hallelujah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[loafer89]

This past weekends weather was absoloutely schizophrenic with friday being cold enough to make you cry, especially with the wind and yesterday being shortsleeve warm and I saw quite a few people in Maine in shortsleeve shirts:-o Alot of the snow that did fall from fridays storm was on the melt yesterday afternoon in southern Maine.

NOAA continues to forecast above normal temperatures through the 24th and this would be bad for the upcoming Christmas season. Kudos to the snowmaking crews at all of the resorts in the east that have had to deal with very adverse conditions to make us all happy.

 

[ajl50]

Dont' look at the NOAA day 6-10 and 8-14 temp. predictions so closely. Those are averages over the forecasted period. So an example after 12/1 was crazy warm the following week was cold BUT the NOAA average was still an average warm. In the prediction there can be one day of 42 degress for the high (eight above normal for say saranac lake) and then the rest of the days at highs of 34 and NOAA would still have to forecast above average temperatures for that period.
Also the darker colors on their map don't indicate how far above or below average the temperature will be- rather they indicate the percent chance that it will be above normal or below. I think their line for above normal is like 2 degrees---soo use NOAA's five day forecast for accuracy and forget the rest.

 

[loafer89]

I just look at it as:

Moderate El Nino = crappy Eastern U.S winter

The solstice is only two weeks out and the weather is unseasonably warm.

I also look at unfrozen lakes and brown ski trails in Northern Maine in December and feel depressed.

The temperature at Sugarloaf went UP at night on saturday night from 25F to 30F at dawn.:-o

 

[ajl50]

the more accurate formula is moderate el nino with teleconectic indicators like PNA, AO, NAO and atlantic ocean temps equals cool early fall, warm late fall and very early winter and cold middle winter with early spring.

 

[ajl50]

last year wasn't a moderate el nino year and i seem to remember a pretty crappy jan. and early feb.

 

[riverc0il]

Moderate El Nino = crappy Eastern U.S winter

not true. moderate el nino could go either way historically. it is only december, we still have four more months of ski season to go and things are only getting warmed up. not a great start but no reason to judge the entire season based on two months worth of weather (the two least important months at that).

 

[klrskiah]

I just look at it as:

Moderate El Nino = crappy Eastern U.S winter

The solstice is only two weeks out and the weather is unseasonably warm.

I also look at unfrozen lakes and brown ski trails in Northern Maine in December and feel depressed.

The temperature at Sugarloaf went UP at night on saturday night from 25F to 30F at dawn.:-o

from this info, it looks like there are more factors involved than just the el nino

sugarloaf snowfall for el nino years:
1957-58 325 inches
1965-66 139
1972-73 173 (strong el nino)
1977-78 172
1982-83 138
1987-88 115
1991-92 146 (strong el nino)
1992-93 210
1994-95 140
1997-98 269 (strong el nino)
2002-03 140

AVG snowfall for el nino years 179"

 

[ajl50]

For an area like sugarloaf that is so far north an el nino season has limited impact because while it brings mild temps, that at sugarloaf, in january means 28 instead of 18.
There weather I think is more a product of storm tracks and blocking patterns.

 

[loafer89]

El Nino can have a HUGE impact on the weather at Sugarloaf. The January 1998 ice storm was a disaster for Maine and for the mountains destroying glades and ruining the snowcover and this was a strong El Nino year.

Hopefully this does not occur this season, but with warm air coming into regions where it does not belong anything is possible.

 

[SkiFirst]

We really need the cold weather to stick around for a couple of days. no more of the 50-60 degree days.

 

[loafer89]

These wild swings in temperature are hard on the snow conditions and snowmaking and this is the time of year that ski areas should be able to start building base depths and expanding terrain for the important Christmas holiday and the weather for the next week will not be all that favorable for that.

Hopefully by the end of the month we can get into some cold weather that stays put and have a few hefty snowstorms to build snowpack.

 

[ajl50]

Just did a little more work on this upcoming pattern this am. For area's north of central VT - it looks like light rain today, some mixed tonight, and some mixed precip. later in the week. The jet will shift a little bit so while NYC, central CT, and some areas along the coast hit mid 50's the north counrty will actually only be in the upper 30's. (warm but not insane and will have night time snomaking.)
The key days are 12/20-12/22. I have said this before and I really believe it- we'll see at least a 15 day stretch of better weather starting these days. (and a good chance for a much longer set in pattern) The big ass storm slamming the northwest will come eastward and pull down cold air. It's big enough to really set a pattern for us and the NAO will start to head towards negative at this time. Between the 22 and the 27th' I think there will be several chances for snow with persistant snow showers in the north country mountains.
Ultimately how much will be able to open? No idea- all depends on the guns and the storm tracks.

 

[hammer]

The key days are 12/20-12/22. I have said this before and I really believe it- we'll see at least a 15 day stretch of better weather starting these days. (and a good chance for a much longer set in pattern) The big ass storm slamming the northwest will come eastward and pull down cold air. It's big enough to really set a pattern for us and the NAO will start to head towards negative at this time. Between the 22 and the 27th' I think there will be several chances for snow with persistant snow showers in the north country mountains.
Ultimately how much will be able to open? No idea- all depends on the guns and the storm tracks.

Today's 15-day forecast from Accuweather doesn't agree with you, they're showing no significant temperature change through the holiday week...I sure hope they are wrong. :-?

 

[danpop]

Killington forecast (starting Friday night) looks excellent:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.182917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=136&map.y=103

 

[danpop]

Also, according to this, cold weather is on its way:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness

The accuweather for Killington doesn't look too bad:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipcode=05751&metric=0

Not very cold, but they can make snow everynight, begining Friday night....

 

[Greg]

Killington forecast (starting Friday night) looks excellent:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.182917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=136&map.y=103

Not sure "excellent" is the right term. That forecast is at elevation and the snowmaking opps are still only at night. Better than nothing, but "excellent" is a 3+ days straight (day and night) snowmaking window...

 

[JD]

Excellent would be a 30 inch dump.