What is the impact of a bad Christmas week?

[VTKilarney]

A couple of questions:

1) Do people really stay away if the conditions are very poor during Christmas week, or do they get away no matter what? How much of a difference does a bad Christmas make compared to a good Christmas in terms of occupancy rates?

2) If people do stay away, how possible is it for a ski area to recover from a financial perspective? My guess would be that most areas would be hoping to break even for the year, and that the odds of making any meaningful profit would evaporate.

 

[tnt1234]

I just called around to try to score a room on a mountain with some trails open, and they all were claiming no cancellations, enforcing the 3 night min, and charging premium rates when they could find me something for 2 that didn't conflict with other books, so seems to me people are coming for the holiday....

 

[mriceyman]

Usually when we had trips planned for holidays we would go almost no matter what


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[drjeff]

A couple of questions:

1) Do people really stay away if the conditions are very poor during Christmas week, or do they get away no matter what? How much of a difference does a bad Christmas make compared to a good Christmas in terms of occupancy rates?

2) If people do stay away, how possible is it for a ski area to recover from a financial perspective? My guess would be that most areas would be hoping to break even for the year, and that the odds of making any meaningful profit would evaporate.

Tends to be quite significant as a good deal of the business is from those skiers who ONLY go during holiday times, often because they have other responsibilities (kids/work) that don't free up any extra time and/or don't want to make what to them is a "long" drive to just ski on a 2 day weekend.

For many of them if they're not going during x-mas week, they won't make those days up by going at a different non holiday time later in the season.

I know the rental side of the condo complex I own in historically has year end reports that are "good", "neutral" or "bad" (looking at booking revenues) based on how the 3 main holiday periods (X-mas, MLK and Pres week) are, and in our annual report the reasoning is exactly as above - "above and beyond" holiday week guests primarily just come up during holiday weeks and won't come up at other times

This X-mas week could be awful for Eastern ski areas, especially the smaller ones, one's who may not even be open yet and/or started making snow with the reality looking at the current forecast that they may not even be open by Christmas

 

[Tin]

I would be concerned for places like Berkie, Magic, Whaleback, etc. These places need time to blow snow and get open and they won't be able to really get going until the week before break. I know Berkie blew snow last week but I'm sure that will be gone by next week with this weekend's blowtorch.

 

[machski]

I just called around to try to score a room on a mountain with some trails open, and they all were claiming no cancellations, enforcing the 3 night min, and charging premium rates when they could find me something for 2 that didn't conflict with other books, so seems to me people are coming for the holiday....

Strange, SR dropped the minimum nights stay last weekend I believe for Christmas week.

 

[deadheadskier]

From where I've worked in the business, it can very much be the difference between a red or black year.

 

[Smellytele]

Not sure how many on this board actually go away for Christmas week. I never do nice or not. Maybe a few day trips - I would never book a place to stay in advance that week. Too many people not enough trails open.

 

[BushMogulMaster]

From where I've worked in the business, it can very much be the difference between a red or black year.

^^^This.

The majority of the ski industry relies heavily on about 40 key days to make or break the bottom line (weekends & holiday periods, and a spring break week or two). The Christmas period usually accounts for about 10 of those days. Miss them, and it hurts. Doesn't mean recovery is impossible, but it definitely hurts.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I cant remember what poor early-season year it was, sometime in the last 5 or so years, but I found that once it got decent from mid-January to close the slopes were abnormally busy, and I think it's because people needed to "get their ski days in" so to speak.

 

[Hawkshot99]

I cant remember what poor early-season year it was, sometime in the last 5 or so years, but I found that once it got decent from mid-January to close the slopes were abnormally busy, and I think it's because people needed to "get their ski days in" so to speak.

While this is true, there are VERY FEW times that a person can go and book a entire week at the ski mtn.
Once these people get onto property for the week, many do not leave at all. So not only do you have tickets, and lodging for these people, but also food, ski shops sales, evening entertainment, and many other revenue streams.
Now if these families miss out on that week, and still go up during weekend days "to get there days in" a good amount of that week long $ is lost. You can pack lunches for a day, eat dinner on the drive home, not buy everything at the mtn ski shop, ect....

 

[drjeff]

While this is true, there are VERY FEW times that a person can go and book a entire week at the ski mtn.
Once these people get onto property for the week, many do not leave at all. So not only do you have tickets, and lodging for these people, but also food, ski shops sales, evening entertainment, and many other revenue streams.
Now if these families miss out on that week, and still go up during weekend days "to get there days in" a good amount of that week long $ is lost. You can pack lunches for a day, eat dinner on the drive home, not buy everything at the mtn ski shop, ect....

Totally true!!!

Using my example at Mount Snow - if a family rents a condo in my complex, on site you have a pool, fitness center, indoor basketball and raquetball courts, if there snow on the ground you have 10k of groomed cross country skiing and/or snowshoeing trails and a shuttle bus that takes you from just out your front door to the mountain and back every 15 minutes from 7AM until 5:30PM - So short of groceries or going out to eat, you never need to leave either our Condo association property or Mount Snow property the whole time your there!

For reference, on a "normal" winter weekend, there will be about 175- 200 cars parked outside of the 225 units we have in my complex, on a "Holiday" week/weekend the car count is usually about 325-350 (the 1st shuttle driver of the day does a car count) - is a BIG difference, with people who typically don't stray too far from their often rented condo!!

 

[deadheadskier]

Just one example. 2003-2004 I worked at Wisp, MD in management. We had a great 10 day Xmas through NYE holiday period where we did $1M in revenue. Big celebration for the first time the resort did that kind of business. At the time Wisp was doing about 125K skier visits a season, had a golf course, an okay banquet operation, 1 year round restaurant and bar.

Total annual revenue from all of those sources was $5M for the year. So, that ten day holiday period accounted for 20% of the annual business.

That's obviously not the case at all ski areas. I'm just illustrating how important that week can be for some areas

 

[Harvey]

Total annual revenue from all of those sources was $5M for the year. So, that ten day holiday period accounted for 20% of the annual business.

That's obviously not the case at all ski areas. I'm just illustrating how important that week can be for some areas

I would bet this scenario is not that unusual.

 

[Harvey]

double post

 

[Boxtop Willie]

I rent my ski house near Sugarbush from early season thru early March. It rented early and fast this year. However, current conditions have some nervous. Group that has the weekend before Christmas (5 days) just cancelled. Christmas week people called yesterday asking about other things to do in the Valley (and what my cancellation policy is). This has to be happening in other places....economic impact could cascade through the local area.

 

[JDMRoma]

Don't forget the hotel / motels that deal with the snow mobile community !
I'm sure they are gonna get whacked without anyone coming up to ride Christmas week !! Sucks all around


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[jimmywilson69]

I know my local hills here in southcentral PA really need the Christmas holiday to be in the black. This year could be slightly different, as they haven't spent any money on snowmaking yet. However, they haven't made any money yet, and their target opening is typically last weekend.

this weather SUCKS

 

[mbedle]

Interesting to note that I read an article from 2013 where the president of the Vermont Ski Associations says the Presidents Day holiday period is the biggest money maker for resorts. Something about it being spread over two weeks. Goto believe that maybe the guarantee of better conditions in February might help.

 

[machski]

Interesting to note that I read an article from 2013 where the president of the Vermont Ski Associations says the Presidents Day holiday period is the biggest money maker for resorts. Something about it being spread over two weeks. Goto believe that maybe the guarantee of better conditions in February might help.

Perhaps, but at some point people start making their Presidents Week plans. And if the snow and cold don't show up here, they will book elsewhere (out west). This happened back in the mid 2000's, the year we had no natural to speak of until Valentines. It dumped that day and never shut off until mid April, president's week skied great but no one was around. So while the NE resorts may be able to float a bad Christmas/NY holiday, it needs to turn around quickly after to save the financial season for them.