When will we have our first dump in Southern Vermont?

[billski]

let's start taking bets. We've had a lot of guessing about opening days, snowmaking starts and so on. Let's stretch it a little bit and predict the first good dump. Since weather patterns vary across the northeast, we have to bound it. Here's my first target: Southern Vt, since a large number of our readers and viewers find this a reachable target. Plus, places like Stowe, whites and ME can have very different weathern patterns.

Parameters: I'm gonna be generous (thank you global warming) and say it has to be 6" plus in 24 hours in southern Vermont (Bromley-Mt. Snow-Magic-Stratton). Is 6" a "dump", well that's debatable, and I'd rather say 12" but with weather being what it is...

Poll closes in one week. Votes are public, so winners receive a rubber biscuit.

Put down the scientific analysis and Scott's good word and take a stab at the survey!

 

[drjeff]

Nov 30 to Dec 6th - my guess. Sooner or later that strong jet crusing off the Eastern seaboard is going to break down(or atleast flatten out) and allow something to develop off the mid-Atlantic/New England. Whether it will be an Albert Clipper that hits Pennsylvania and the transfers its engergy to an offshore secondary low or an old fashioned Nor'easter, that will be the question. My hunch though is that we've got a solid 2 weeks of generally cold weather across the Eastern 1/3-1/2 of the country.

 

[Greg]

What the hell. I said next week. I classify a "dump" as 8". That seems to be the magic number for feeling less of the base underneath.

 

[jaywbigred]

Nov 30 to Dec 6th - my guess. Sooner or later that strong jet crusing off the Eastern seaboard is going to break down(or atleast flatten out) and allow something to develop off the mid-Atlantic/New England. Whether it will be an Albert Clipper that hits Pennsylvania and the transfers its engergy to an offshore secondary low or an old fashioned Nor'easter, that will be the question. My hunch though is that we've got a solid 2 weeks of generally cold weather across the Eastern 1/3-1/2 of the country.

I trust the Doc. He seems like he knows what he is talking about in most weather threads...

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I'm guessing early January..any snow that far south in December is a bonus..

 

[drjeff]

I trust the Doc. He seems like he knows what he is talking about in most weather threads...

Heck, all I need to do is bat about .33333 at my forcasts and I'd be doing better than many a TV weatherman

 

[Smellytele]

This will probably get me banned - How about there won't be one? Or who cares no one I know skis in Southern Vermont. I am only joking I wish you all that ski in Southern VT snow and lots of it. I don't want any bad Karma hitting me in the face.