NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[slatham]

Solid indications in MJO and teleconnections and forecasted stratospheric warming that a significant pattern change is coming in the 10-15 day period. Even the CSV2 has it getting colder end of Jan right through Feb. I hope the damage from the thaw isn't too bad and the storm around the 23rd is snow to kick it all off.

 

[dlague]

Well it looks like skiing back east should be comfortable. Will be a bit strange due to cold temps at night but above freezing during the day through the weekend. Then the fun starts after that on Monday and Tuesday.

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[NYDB]

Looks like another miracle taking place. Forecasts are trending towards mostly frozen precip next week. At least no huge rain event and meltdown.

 

[Abubob]

Looks like another miracle taking place. Forecasts are trending towards mostly frozen precip next week. At least no huge rain event and meltdown.

It's one of those years. It wants to snow here. I remember snow flurries when the temperature was 40 earlier in the season. Even the rain events we've had haven't been meltdowns.

Well, northern New England anyway.

 

[4aprice]

It's one of those years. It wants to snow here. I remember snow flurries when the temperature was 40 earlier in the season. Even the rain events we've had haven't been meltdowns.

Well, northern New England anyway.

I agree with the want to snow. I've seen this as far south as NNJ this year with a couple of little events. Just enough cold lurking around to help.

It's my opinion, from things I have read that, once past this shot of the moisture coming into the west the spigot gets turned off for a while out there, and high pressure, which loves to build over a large snow pack, takes over the west, resulting in trough for the east. How many winters have acted this way before and really started up in this time period (last 1/3 of Jan, first 1/3 Feb) ? Makes sense. February is always when the storms come to the east and the ride gets fun.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[slatham]

I agree with the want to snow. I've seen this as far south as NNJ this year with a couple of little events. Just enough cold lurking around to help.

It's my opinion, from things I have read that, once past this shot of the moisture coming into the west the spigot gets turned off for a while out there, and high pressure, which loves to build over a large snow pack, takes over the west, resulting in trough for the east. How many winters have acted this way before and really started up in this time period (last 1/3 of Jan, first 1/3 Feb) ? Makes sense. February is always when the storms come to the east and the ride gets fun.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

12/13, 13/14, 14/15 all started late. Each benefited from a positive PNA, which is the western US /western Cananda high that sends a trough into the east. The models are forecasting just that starting late next week. Also negative EPO, which this season has been a main driver - cold when negative, warm when positive. Fingers crossed it comes about and stays!

 

[tnt1234]

forecasts improving for next week...

 

[slatham]

Models seem locked in that its a coastal and there is cool high to north but no widespread cold. Key is track as the recent runs pushing track back west which is warmer. But the models are likely to flip and flop so can't get too happy or sad based of one run. By tomorrow the NAM should be locked in as well as Euro/GFS/Canadian and we will see where they are taking it and whether there is consensus.

 

[4aprice]

Models seem locked in that its a coastal and there is cool high to north but no widespread cold. Key is track as the recent runs pushing track back west which is warmer. But the models are likely to flip and flop so can't get too happy or sad based of one run. By tomorrow the NAM should be locked in as well as Euro/GFS/Canadian and we will see where they are taking it and whether there is consensus.

How about instead of a snow to rain scenario, we see a rain to snow? Hard to predict accumulations with that. JB posted a pretty juicy ECMWF map on his twitter page.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[4aprice]

12/13, 13/14, 14/15 all started late. Each benefited from a positive PNA, which is the western US /western Cananda high that sends a trough into the east. The models are forecasting just that starting late next week. Also negative EPO, which this season has been a main driver - cold when negative, warm when positive. Fingers crossed it comes about and stays!

One of my favorites 1993 has been mentioned in the Analogs. If that happens the mood around here will shift drastically.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[dlague]

Your weather is very weird this January. What looked to be a rainy day in New England, appears to be snow followed by freezing rain or mix and end possibly as rain. Then to top it all off a warming trend to follow then getting to borderline freezing for the weekend. That should firm things up again. Then no significant snow to follow.

It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?

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[fbrissette]

It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?

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Severely under-performing for Northern Vermont and Quebec.

 

[180]

Surprise powder day at Hunter. 4 - 6 inches of sleet and snow covered everything nicely.

 

[dlague]

Looks like the winner this time was Sugarloaf 5-7 with a couple more expected.

 

[4aprice]

Your weather is very weird this January. What looked to be a rainy day in New England, appears to be snow followed by freezing rain or mix and end possibly as rain. Then to top it all off a warming trend to follow then getting to borderline freezing for the weekend. That should firm things up again. Then no significant snow to follow.

It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?

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It never was supposed to deliver. According to Sno Country about 5-inches in S Vermont with what I would imagine is sleet and some rain, slop so to speak, probably good for the base. The warmth is a one day bump and then it looked like maybe a little more slop turning this time to snow at the end of the week. I'm optimistic that it could be a good weekend coming up.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[BenedictGomez]

It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?

Giant snow hole over much of ski country / Murphy's Law.

Smuggs is reporting 4" though, and Whiteface is up to 8" and still coming down. Not sure if it's enough to make me switch plans and hit Whiteface instead of Jay Peak (reporting 2" so far), but I'll be monitoring it.

There should me more to come through much of the evening, so I think n.VT may catch up a bit, plus through the next few days there are predicted snowshowers (not to mention L.E.S. bands) so I think n.VT from Smuggs/Stowe to Canada will end up okay. I think it might sneak up on people in dribs & drabs.

 

[benski]

Greek Peek had 5 inches of cement. Enough to ski the natural snow trails, though they were closed wasn't hitting the ground Zeus and Hercules though I had to jump water-bars on Hercules.

 

[snoseek]

More cement is fine. The base at my regular joint is shaping up pretty decent all things considered. Maybe a little bit of fluff in the coming days, some actual cold...and then maybe just maybe down the road....

 

[dlague]

By the looks of it any water in the new snow should drain out and reduce the chances of it turning ice on Sunday.

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[bdfreetuna]

It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?

January has been pretty bad, but it could have been worse. Mountains have got enough refills (including this last storm) to keep them mostly viable... or at least keeping the base from completely evaporating due to the relative warmth. 5 inches of dense snow is what most mountains needed right now to set us up with a reasonable base to build upon for what we hope and expect is the return of winter any day now.

We were doing better in December when it was cold and lake effect snow was doing it's thing and mountains were getting surprise dumps. We didn't get a blow torch like last year but that was a longish thaw and the rain and fog didn't help, mostly by causing mediocre skiing conditions even when there was plenty of snow.

Peak of the season so far is 2 last weeks of December and 1st week of January.

BTW this is the point in the season I flip from optimist to realist. Better to set myself up to be pleasantly surprised once again, right?