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Jay Peak Conceptual Development Plan (2011-2016)

thetrailboss

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Awesome news about Sky Haus renovation. That summit shack is a pit right now. Completely under utilized, especially when you compare it to Cannon's summit cafe which got beer service added recently. Look at what $teaux gets away with at the Cliff House... big revenue opportunity for those with deep pockets.

And not to highjack the thread, but Killington's summit lodge renovation plan is going to an Act 250 hearing soon. I saw it in the Rutland Herald this week.
 

deadheadskier

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Awesome news about Sky Haus renovation. That summit shack is a pit right now. Completely under utilized, especially when you compare it to Cannon's summit cafe which got beer service added recently. Look at what $teaux gets away with at the Cliff House... big revenue opportunity for those with deep pockets.

Cliff House has been the same place it's always been for almost 20 years. I know that throughout the late 90s and early 2000s, it lost money as an F&B outlet at the mountain. Maybe that's changed now that there is a bed base up at the mountain.

People grossly misunderstand the kind of money ski resorts make with their F&B department. The top of the Tram at Jay may make a little money, but not much. Same with Killington's venture.

Restaurants in cities that are busy 365 days a year make 9 cents on the dollar. Even with hugely inflated prices, ski resorts do not make that kind of margin at the end of the year.
 

riverc0il

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DHS- that is very interesting to hear regarding F&B! Since I work in an industry that has very high prices but very low margins, I fully understand the potential for the public over emphasizing potential so called "gouging". But even from that mind set, that surprises me about F&B when they are charging $3-4 for a fountain beverage on top of a $10 burger and fry. I do know that fountain beverages are super high margin. Not so much for much of the rest of the operation?
 

Magog Fishy

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Jay might be primarily going after the wedding market with the new Sky Haus restaurant. Hosting a wedding reception atop a 3,900’ peak has to be up there next to an ocean/waterfront setting as one of the most desirable places. Last Fall Jay had already booked I believe it was 27 weddings for this Summer – imagine that number is now at 40ish. Jay was planning to erect a big tent next to the front of the new Club House for this entire Summer, used mainly for wedding receptions. I imagine Alice’s Restaurant could also host receptions. Guess it is not only Raise'em Jay, but L**'em Jay! :lol:

Surely Jay will also pitch the new Sky Haus restaurant to conference groups – the new Hotel Jay has quite a bit of conference space, so they are also going after that market (offering them shiny new space plus the golf and waterpark amenties); this is probably more aimed at the Montreal market; how successful this will be is another story. At some point I need to visit Bromont and Mont Tremblant, since I don’t think one can fully understand Jay until you understand those resorts (in addition to Orford/Magog, and Sutton/Knowlton areas – these areas I have a feel for).

Has weddings been a big Summer business and revenue generator for other ski resorts that have the facilities, for example Stratton, Okemo, Killington, Stowe, Sugarbush?

Anyone know how the marriage system in Canada works – do they recognize a ceremony that takes place in the US?

It all comes down to Jay not have to pay any debt service and apparently not being required to pay a preferred return to their EB5 investors on the new buildings (although apparently Jay has been able to pay a few percent each year to the EB5 investors). You get a lot of flexibility operationally when you save -- who knows :dontknow: -- $10m?, $20m? (once the third EB phase is complete) per year in your cost of capital!
 

deadheadskier

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DHS- that is very interesting to hear regarding F&B! Since I work in an industry that has very high prices but very low margins, I fully understand the potential for the public over emphasizing potential so called "gouging". But even from that mind set, that surprises me about F&B when they are charging $3-4 for a fountain beverage on top of a $10 burger and fry. I do know that fountain beverages are super high margin. Not so much for much of the rest of the operation?

I'll try and explain

cafeteria/concession operations tend to be your cash cows no doubt. You can make a 50% margin pretty easily on those kinds of operations.*****

Resorts have to have finer dining operations to bring in the people that will buy the million dollar slopeside condo or pay $500 for a suite during holiday week at the Tram house. Those customers want at least 50% of the quality they can get going out to dine in the city.

So, Stowe puts up the Cliffhouse

Cliff House at Stowe run as a restaurant or a banquet facility is gonna have a food cost in the 26-32% range, their beverage cost is going to be 19-23%, labor cost for the kitchen 20% and 10% labor cost for the front of the house. Fixed costs of energy, insurance, etc, are going to fall in the 10% range. That leaves you a 10% margin. Mind you, this doesn't factor in the cost of the Gondola to get the people up there.

Let's look at how it works on the the Micro level. Say a table for 2 spends $100. In theory, the house makes $10. You know how much a decent fork costs for a restaurant? $4. Knives are more. They end up in the trash all the time. So now you've only made $6 on that table instead of $10.

What if the customer decides after two cooking attempts that the $30 steak they ordered was terrible and the manager takes it off the bill? Well, it's not a full $30 penalty to the restaurant, but steak is a high cost item of around 40%, so that plate cost $12. Now that table has lost you $2 instead of potentially made you $10 in the best case scenario.

There's only so much bad luck you can write off. Ultimately all those little things can destroy your bottom line.

back to concessions*****is where it gets so hard for resorts.

You're only making that 50% margin in the cafeterias on the weekends. 12 weekends out of the year. All during the midweek of the season that GIANT space still needs to be heated, the walkin refrigerators and all the kitchen equipment needs to be on. You scale back the labor as much as you can, but you still need to heat the building (which costs more because there's less people/body heat in the room) and run all the equipment. Then those fixed costs jump up to like 50% because of the lack of volume coming through. Also factor in that midweek skiers tend to be locals and not spending as much at the food court outlets as vacationers.

The knife in the heart is when you have a wind hold day. Now a place like Stowe has a thousand people on the hill instead of ten thousand. Not everything comes out of the freezer. There is produce in the like which you've bought on Wednesday to ramp up for the big weekend. 90% of that goes in the trash, spiking your food cost.

It's damn hard to make margins at F&B in a city that's busy year round. Much, much harder at a ski resort where you've got 12 weeks to make bread and in a bad winter can have 3 of those weeks taken away by weather.
 

deadheadskier

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Jay might be primarily going after the wedding market with the new Sky Haus restaurant. Hosting a wedding reception atop a 3,900’ peak has to be up there next to an ocean/waterfront setting as one of the most desirable places. Last Fall Jay had already booked I believe it was 27 weddings for this Summer – imagine that number is now at 40ish. Jay was planning to erect a big tent next to the front of the new Club House for this entire Summer, used mainly for wedding receptions. I imagine Alice’s Restaurant could also host receptions. Guess it is not only Raise'em Jay, but L**'em Jay! :lol:

Surely Jay will also pitch the new Sky Haus restaurant to conference groups – the new Hotel Jay has quite a bit of conference space, so they are also going after that market (offering them shiny new space plus the golf and waterpark amenties); this is probably more aimed at the Montreal market; how successful this will be is another story. At some point I need to visit Bromont and Mont Tremblant, since I don’t think one can fully understand Jay until you understand those resorts (in addition to Orford/Magog, and Sutton/Knowlton areas – these areas I have a feel for).

Has weddings been a big Summer business and revenue generator for other ski resorts that have the facilities, for example Stratton, Okemo, Killington, Stowe, Sugarbush?

Anyone know how the marriage system in Canada works – do they recognize a ceremony that takes place in the US?

It all comes down to Jay not have to pay any debt service and apparently not being required to pay a preferred return to their EB5 investors on the new buildings (although apparently Jay has been able to pay a few percent each year to the EB5 investors). You get a lot of flexibility operationally when you save -- who knows :dontknow: -- $10m?, $20m? (once the third EB phase is complete) per year in your cost of capital!

marked to comment more down the line. off to bed.

I used to manage the 2nd busiest wedding and conference facility in the state of Vermont. The revenue isn't what you think it might be.
 

JPTracker

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Anyone know (JPtracker?) if they will be replacing the whole Sky Haus?

I heard last year that they were considering that when they redo the power line for the new six pack, which also feeds the Sky Haus and top of the Flyer, they would put in underground and also bury a water and sewer line all the way to the summit. With this done then they would be able to renovate the Sky Haus. This was estimated to cost several million just for this. Sounds like they are going for it. Will tell for sure when they start work on the power line this summer. We have our annual homeowners association meeting this weekend where they will generally announce this kind of info. Will post more news when I hear.

Interesting how we hear about their expansion plans through eb5 first.
 
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This is a very interesting development, kudos to MagogFishy for keeping on top of things. FWIW, all the windows in Sky Haus were replaced last fall and some reno work was done in the apartment up there. I used the summit bathroom several times this winter and it seemed to be working fine.
 

JPTracker

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Update from the weekend:

The Sky Haus renovation is still in it's infancy as no real plans have been made just some wishful thinking put on the EB5 site. They will not be putting in water and sewer this summer to the Sky Haus, just a new power line.

Lift mods will happen next summer. They plan on doing all three lifts in one summer. New six pack up Power Line, Move the Bonnie to the Jet and move the Jet over to the terrain park. Nothing else new. Did not talk about any on mountain changes.

Went for a hike on the mountain and did notice one change. The double fall line at the bottom of Montrealer has been regraded and is no more.
 

Geoff

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DHS- that is very interesting to hear regarding F&B! Since I work in an industry that has very high prices but very low margins, I fully understand the potential for the public over emphasizing potential so called "gouging". But even from that mind set, that surprises me about F&B when they are charging $3-4 for a fountain beverage on top of a $10 burger and fry. I do know that fountain beverages are super high margin. Not so much for much of the rest of the operation?

ASC set their food cost corporate-wide at 30% of gross sales. I imagine 30% to 50% is where most ski areas fall.
 

Geoff

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It's damn hard to make margins at F&B in a city that's busy year round. Much, much harder at a ski resort where you've got 12 weeks to make bread and in a bad winter can have 3 of those weeks taken away by weather.

Which is why the major resorts installed snowmaking. If you can fill your cafeteria from mid-November and make lots of money selling beer & burgers on the deck in April, the whole F&B operation ends up looking a lot better.
 

Magog Fishy

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Update from the weekend:

Thanks JPtracker for the update – I had been thinking the JPR HOA meeting would be happening about now.

So they have raised $45m more (with another $45m in the process of being raised), and it sounds like they don’t know for sure what they are going to do with it other than put in the 34 townhomes along the golf course (which they have submitted an Act 250 application for; attached are the links). I’ll take a donation! :lol:

http://www.anr.state.vt.us/site/cfm/act250/detail.cfm?ID=25861

http://www.anr.state.vt.us/Imaging/Planning/7R0854-7-8/Site Plan P3 - Site Grading Plan.pdf

Did they say anything at the HOA about what would be in the third EB phases and timing (e.g. new Stateside Lodge, Stateside hotel)? Anything new about mountain biking? I know JPR is in the process of restating and amending their existing Planned Unit Development plan with the Town of Jay, so maybe no major announcements and rocking of the boat until this is complete – would be understandable. JPR might have been rushing to get the third phase money committed even if development plans were not complete since the EB program is expiring this year -- although IIRC Leahy is pushing to get it extended/made permanent. Better to get the $ committed, then risk the program expiring!

FWIW, all the windows in Sky Haus were replaced last fall and some reno work was done in the apartment up there. I used the summit bathroom several times this winter and it seemed to be working fine.

I thought I had remembered them putting in new windows last Summer, and renovating the apartment. At some point I need to check out the Sky Haus bathroom – I have this image of something worse than the lower level Stateside bathroom, which makes one want to :puke:.
 
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At some point I need to check out the Sky Haus bathroom – I have this image of something worse than the lower level Stateside bathroom, which makes one want to :puke:.

The Sky Haus bathroom is the best kept secret stash at Jay (well, not after this). Most people think it is closed or don't know it's there. It needs a paint job but other than that, I always find it clean, pleasant and uncrowded. Everything a bathroom should be!
 

JPTracker

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Jay has submitted their ACT 250 permit application for trail improvements for this summer. They include:

1) Andre's Paradise - The exit trail at the bottom is going to be double in length giving easier access to more terrain. No changes to the entrance or actual glade as promised.

2) Alligator Alley / Goat intersection - Will be regraded

3) Taxi - Some of the breakovers into the woods will be cleaned up.

4) Haynes - Part of the upper trail will be widened.

Details can be seen here.

The permit is also for the relocation of the power line. It will be going up Lift Line and Can Am.
 
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Thanks for the update, JPT. Hope you don't mind, I'm going to repost this on the RJPSR. Maybe I should enable Google AdWords so I can put you on the payroll!

#s 2 and 3 seem like no-brainers. Personally, I don't see any reason why the Haynes Glacier needs to be any wider than it is. The AP exit extension is interesting - could have negative repercussions if it tempts more people to go "Beyond" and they still miss the exit trail.

Hot enough for you?
 

JPTracker

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SBR no problem with the repost.

I think the Taxi change is because the need something to do with the extra dirt when they bury the power line going up Lift Line.

The Haynes widening I believe so they can meet FIS requirements which we previously discussed here.
 

Magog Fishy

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I like having a bit more room on Taxi – it can get tight in there with people hauling from Angel’s to Tram around those without enough speed, plus you got stopped gapers looking down (some even up) the trees, and then you can get people flying out of Del/Power. Haynes is what it is – I find myself skiing it less and less; good for early/late season, and perhaps after a thaw/freeze. Agree on Alligator, but will probably mean more people on that trail and perhaps more people taking lefts in to the trees.

Sick Bird – I was going to write a comment on your blog about your McSkiing blurb, but it is tough to organize all my thoughts in the Summer. Cliffs Note verson of my response: no, yes, and I have no idea. :) No being they are trying to design the expansion in an “authentic” and innovative way so it does not feel banal, and not change the image/vibe of Jay being a “skiers and skiing centric” mountain. Yes, in they have stated they are going to have to attract more skiers and real estate owners, the vast majority of which are going to want groomers and a significant variety of non-alpine activities – not going to be people who think a -15 wind chill on the Freezer is a “tropical breeze”. I have no idea being there are too many variables/scenarios on how Jay might develop, a few being whether EB will get extended/made permanent, “succession” plan if God forbid something happens tomorrow to Bill (since he is “key man”), and electric capacity.

This month there is actually what appears to be a critical vote on JPR electric capacity. Yeah file this under the all time most boring news category, but it could have major ramifications on the expansion. This past winter there was a major substation upgrade on 105 but apparently there are still capacity issues. I have not followed it closely, but supposedly there is a co-op vote on upgrading 17 miles of power lines in the Jay area (this is supposedly tied in with the Lowell Wind Turbines). Lowell Wind Turbines (another one I have not really followed) is a presumably struggling town near Jay sold their soul to put up a wind farm – IIRC 21 turbines on a ridge line and will eliminate everyone’s property taxes in the town; wait until they have to deal with the flicker (could make some go crazy). IIRC originally JPR was against Lowell (not sure if this has changed), presumably because of aesthetic sight lines issues (not sure how high up on the mountain before you would start seeing them). Some articles:

http://vtdigger.org/2011/07/17/vec-...-to-adopt-upgrade-for-kingdom-community-wind/

http://caledonianrecord.com/main.asp?SectionID=180&SubSectionID=778&ArticleID=64974
 
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kingdom-tele

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I like having a bit more room on Taxi – it can get tight in there with people hauling from Angel’s to Tram around those without enough speed, plus you got stopped gapers looking down (some even up) the trees, and then you can get people flying out of Del/Power. Haynes is what it is – I find myself skiing it less and less; good for early/late season, and perhaps after a thaw/freeze. Agree on Alligator, but will probably mean more people on that trail and perhaps more people taking lefts in to the trees.

Sick Bird – I was going to write a comment on your blog about your McSkiing blurb, but it is tough to organize all my thoughts in the Summer. Cliffs Note verson of my response: no, yes, and I have no idea. :) No being they are trying to design the expansion in an “authentic” and innovative way so it does not feel banal, and not change the image/vibe of Jay being a “skiers and skiing centric” mountain. Yes, in they have stated they are going to have to attract more skiers and real estate owners, the vast majority of which are going to want groomers and a significant variety of non-alpine activities – not going to be people who think a -15 wind chill on the Freezer is a “tropical breeze”. I have no idea being there are too many variables/scenarios on how Jay might develop, a few being whether EB will get extended/made permanent, “succession” plan if God forbid something happens tomorrow to Bill (since he is “key man”), and electric capacity.

This month there is actually what appears to be a critical vote on JPR electric capacity. Yeah file this under the all time most boring news category, but it could have major ramifications on the expansion. This past winter there was a major substation upgrade on 105 but apparently there are still capacity issues. I have not followed it closely, but supposedly there is a co-op vote on upgrading 17 miles of power lines in the Jay area (this is supposedly tied in with the Lowell Wind Turbines). Lowell Wind Turbines (another one I have not really followed) is a presumably struggling town near Jay sold their soul to put up a wind farm – IIRC 21 turbines on a ridge line and will eliminate everyone’s property taxes in the town; wait until they have to deal with the flicker (could make some go crazy). IIRC originally JPR was against Lowell (not sure if this has changed), presumably because of aesthetic sight lines issues (not sure how high up on the mountain before you would start seeing them). Some articles:

http://vtdigger.org/2011/07/17/vec-...-to-adopt-upgrade-for-kingdom-community-wind/

http://caledonianrecord.com/main.asp?SectionID=180&SubSectionID=778&ArticleID=64974

wow. that was really informative. is that how flatlanders view this area?

Lowell is like any other town up here, based on agriculture. If that means struggling to you then your right.

Jay is not against it now, they are supporting VEC members to pass the vote. As it stands 4% of the generated power would be dished over to the Jay area. The substation is getting overhauled either way - its more economical if we vote yes - but reinforces the wind project and kingdom community wind

you will be able to see the towers from Jay once above 2800'. You will also be able to see the towers in Sheffield that are going up now.

they shouldn't have any effect on snowfall as far as I know
 

Magog Fishy

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Apologies for using the word “struggling”. Was not the best word choice – wrote it quickly; should have said something along the lines “like many communities in the NEK, Lowell is a town based on agriculture. Farming can oftentimes be a challenging livelihood from an economic standpoint, and oftentimes there are difficult choices to be made – such as whether to vote for a wind farm, which would reduce/eliminate one’s property tax.”

Thanks for the info on JPR now supporting Lowell, and being able to see them above 2,800’. You of anyone on this forum probably have the most insight on a lot of the JPR topics since you live in the area -- I mean this in a sincere way.

Not familiar with the Sheffield towers. How many are going up, and how tall will the turbines be? What is the general sentiment in NEK about Lowell and Sheffield -- people in Lowell/Sheffield for it because of the economic benefits, others against it because of the sight line issues?

they shouldn't have any effect on snowfall as far as I know
:lol:
 
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