Jay Peak Conceptual Development Plan (2011-2016)

[BigJay]

- The Jet T-Bar went up more or less where the current chair is. The UN has always been the UN. If there was a lift on the UN earlier than 1968, I will stand corrected.

The first lift to serve "Mont L'intrepide" was running up the UN. Then the Jet T-Bar took the alignmenet of the Jet and upper UN was cut to line up with the first lift.

At least, that's how it was told to me by my dad. I took the Jet T-bar as a kid and remember the old haynes.

 

[BigJay]

You got me there. Given the obvious split between upper and lower, I figured it was more continuous at one point and I have often wondered how it skied. I might not know what I am missing but I certainly appreciate what that trail might have been like before Wiggle.

@Riv: I remember the "old" Angel's Wiggle (Northway) that was very narrow and you couldn't access the Taxi from it. You had to catch up speed in order to cross the "steep" (-er) wall of the Milk Run or cut through the woods to the bump run down Milk Run. Now the old "northway" as regrown a bit... The old Milk Run was hard and always bumby. No grooming, no snowmaking. It was hard to connect back to tramside from the northway

 

[BenedictGomez]

so benedict, these investors in the EB5 program create jobs, provide capital, and probably are paying a ton of taxes in this country working and living here and you say BS? you may be confusing this group with immigrants that take our services, get educated on our dime, commit crimes, and pay no taxes. EB5 is a total win for the NEK and our country.

While I agree with most* of your assessment, it doesn't make it right. Basically, they jump to the head of the line just because they're rich. It's wrong.



*I agree with the previous poster that there's likely no way in hades Jay created directly or ancillary 4,000 jobs off this $200M, unless you're really playing fast and loose with the numbers (i.e. a 3 month long, 24 hour/week cafeteria worker = a job).

 

[Steve@jpr]

Hey all

Wow. Lots going on here. Just got an email from one of our Homeowner's advising me to come take a look. If anyone has any questions specific to the development, I'd be happy to help clear up what I can. I have answers to most and for what I don't know, I can pretty easily make up. Feel free to send em along, and I'll get back to you as soon as I can. Understand that even though that map is hanging up, it's a snapshot in time. Lots of this stuff will change and evolve-mostly as we hear comments from folks so happy to hear everything you have to say bad/good.

W/r to EB-5 and financing issues--yeah it's more of a cut to the head of the line than it is buying a green card. When you balance what the US gets (growth capital, job creation) with what it gives-advancing potential investors to the front of the line, it feels fair. At least to us. But I guess you'd expect us to feel that way. What I do know is that one of the key's here is that, in reality, no return to them is guaranteed. We lay out a set of expectations in various plans and memorandums, but no return is ever guaranteed.

Hope everyone is doing well and we all get a shot at this thing Tues-Thurs.

steve

 

[luvinjaycloud]

"What businesses in America need more than anything is capital," says Bill Stenger, president of Jay Peak Resort, a ski destination in Orleans County, Vermont, and an EB-5 participant. Since 2005, Stenger has raised $80 million from 160 investors in 20 countries (from South Africa to Thailand) through EB-5, and says he has another $40 million in the pipeline. Stenger typically let go 600 of his 700 employees during off-peak season; with help from EB-5, Jay Peak now retains 90% of its employees year-round, and all hail from the nearby community. "

From this quote a year ago we can assume only a portion of his capital is being raised from EB-5. ($120 mill). that brings the job number to a more reasonable 2400 and I believe they are talking about the entire NEK region which i don't think is that far a reach.

Anyway, ....Let it snow! Bring on the POW!

 

[neil]

Angry debate on Jay's facebook today!

 

[riverc0il]

Yes, but it's a government program is what I meant, not that it's taxpayer money. And I friggin' hate that program. Basically, if you have money, you pay for US citizenship. It's unfair and total BS.

What's wrong with it? This program has really benefited many less well to do communities in the United States. This country was founded on immigrants. What is wrong with not only excepting poor immigrants but also giving citizenship in exchange for substantial economic aid to the country? This is a total win win. Its not like the country is being flooded because of this program.

 

[Magog Fishy]

Wow, thanks Neil. Just scanned the angry debate on Jay’s Facebook page -- are the Egyptian riots spreading to Jay!

Lots to say but…man, need to finalize plans to take advantage of Wed storm; apologies if not all my thoughts are fully thought out.

JPtracker thanks for starting the thread.

EB5:
FWIW with regards to the EB5 job creation required, I believe it is 15 jobs for every investor. The key word is “indirect” jobs can be counted, which ranges from the people that mill the lumber to those that make the steel. Additionally Jay is using local/US folks to make the tables in Alice's that are from reclaimed wood, to the Johnson Woolen Mills blankets in THL plus they’re trying to multitask with buildings (the Golf Clubhouse also has wedding receptions, and in the winter it is the Nordic Center and the condo check in). Additionally because the new development apparently has no debt and no required guaranteed return to investors – this is huge -- , if need be during the slow time JPR could still have people on the payroll that sit around and do nothing (basically the good times subsidize the slow times; I’m over simplifying it, but you get the idea).

100% other people's $/equity for construction and mini-perm financing at 0% required return = deal of a lifetime and no brainer. I don’t believe Bill/Ariel have any personal $ invested in the new buildings other than perhaps they funded pre-development costs (conceptual plans, geotech, etc.) and .1% (or whatever %) required as part of the partnership structure. I thought I read (could be wrong though) the 2 new EB5 buildings at Sugarbush have some debt on them, which might not actually be a bad way to approach it for a number of reasons (one being meeting the job requirement). This is all getting outside my knowledge base, so don’t hold me to it!

One of the other things to keep in mind is that JPR has a system in place to reach EB5 investors, which can take years to create. The system ranges from have a syndication network that can identify potential EB5 investors to having organized Vermont foreign EB5 trips with the Governor and other VT companies seeking EB investors to having an approved EB5 project and regional center set-up.

Anyways, on to the important stuff.

Lift/trail improvements:
First off, Upper Milk Run – I’m with Sick Bird on this (BTW, hope the knee has healed) but will give it more time in the future, which I think makes it 2 against 2; I would say 50% of the time I bail to Canyon Land; the top always seems to be scratch city, but every now and then I have a good run on it. Hardly see anyone on it, and I don’t find myself skiing it much since I try to stay off Northway plus you have the upper Angle’s Wiggle zoo at the exit.

The narrow crossover run to the West Bowl through parts of Andrea’s could become a disaster in the afternoon after it gets skied off. I know putting a trail through Andrea’s is a tough one, but it doesn’t look like there are many other options – I just looked at whether you could put the trail at the bottom of Andre’s where the entrance to Kokomo is (and moving where some of the new condos in the plan are), but I don’t think there is enough pitch. It looks like they have created a new low angle glad below Andrea’s that one could use to ski over to the West Bowl.

West Bowl trails I am fine with – I had an inkling that this was the direction they were going to go in trail wise. Remember they gave up the West Bowl ridge line last summer when they did the land swap with the State since they needed to have separation with the Long Trail (plus having the lift to the summit cuts down on the Champlain Valley winds/windholds).

I think the new groomer next to Timbuktu is partially a result of giving intermediates another option off of the Jet (since State Side is going to be built up/have more foot traffic) – I had heard about the idea for this trail a year or two ago and thought it was going to swoop farther out towards 242 as a way to reign people in from skiing directly on to 242. Not crazy about them messing with Kitzbuehel, other than figuring a way to make snow stick at the top (perhaps that is what they are trying to do by taking away skiers right, although I usually choose that option) – looks like they are trying to straighten the double fall line and widen it so it can handle more users (due to the State Side expansion); taking Kitz to State Side glade is always a fun run, plus hardly anyone ever on it.

Yeah, the West Bowl conceptual plan from years ago (I know JPR has disavowed this; alternative A from ecosign 1/28/03) had another short lift on the east side to a peak which I don’t believe JPR owns (forget the name of this mountain; only about 2730’; heading towards the nipple; believe part of the summit is State Forest and part privately owned). I know a little bit more to the story but best not to say anything on a public forum. There also could have been the possibility that any more terrain expansion would have triggered an indepth and prolonged blackie study (they’re certainly up there, as we have met a few), although I think JPR already did a bunch of studies and set aside some habitat land when they put in the golf course. I think the former reason is more likely than the latter.

For any naysayers please don’t take advantage of the nice oppty that the West Bowl expansion will make a lot easier, which is one of the more noteworthy items from the terrain expansion. For those who know, please keep it quiet and use some common sense.

Base Master Plan:
I’m not crazy about having 3 base pods with lodging and other amenities that are spread out – I realize they have some physical constraints that they have to work with, and thus it would be tough to expand the Tram Side area (which is the heart of the mountain when you take West Bowl in to account) without taking the Slopeside condos via a buyout (which obviously isn’t going to happen) or carving up a couple of Jamie Stenger’s polo fields and croquet lawns (that’s what those fields are for, right?). Maybe it is better to build up the State Side base since West Bowl base will not have the best road access. In an ideal situation, you try to eliminate the need for people at night to use a shuttle or get in their cars to get around the mountain. Three ideas that I will throw out (these are ideas so please don’t throw a 1,000 grenades at me) is 1.) to have some sort of lift that connects State Side and Tram Side, which would primarily be used after hours (yeah, you would have to turn some corners), 2.) not sure if this it possible, but expand Tram Side over to where the snowmaking pond is, and 3.) make the proposed State Side base more of a village by expanding it into the parking area and move parking farther away to where proposed new condos are (also perhaps some sort of short-hop lift).

Random thoughts:
This first thought is way out there, so again please don’t throw a 1,000 grenades at it. What would be kinda cool is some sort of lift up the nipple (which JPR owns) accessing all glade terrain, which could be only approached via touring or snowmobile in order to keep traffic down – wouldn’t be too bad of a hike from West Bowl pod. Yeah you don’t have a ton of vertical, but you have a nice pitch at the top. I could lap it for ½ day if I knew I had less competition for pow; I would be in heaven if you had that with a nice 2,000 sf post and beam rustic lodge at the base that had wood paneling (no white/yellow pine) and wood/stone floors, cool fireplace, small bar, and some cutie picking a guitar.

It would have been nice if JPR presented 2 or 3 conceptual master plans, which would help jog people’s minds for ideas.

As most here know, none of this expansion would be happening without the EB5 (especially in this economy). Without 25 years of networking, playing one’s political hand well, and preparing/waiting for the opportunity of a lifetime (MSSI selling) by one person (should say two plus since I believe he has a wife, and he has a good support staff) none of this expansion would probably have been possible – add in, without Bill/Pat L there might not have been a viable and usable EB5 program. I realize that some will have philosophical issues with the EB5 program, but I will just say that there are few if any alternative ways to finance major growth for an economic engine in a rural, high-unemployment area (esp a ski area, since the the # of skiers/boarders is rapidly declining). There is perhaps also an element of luck – without Bill finding Ariel to help buy JPR none of this might have been possible; without the Montreal market being 1:40 away (and don’t underestimate the draw from Ottawa), the expansion might not be feasible.

Final thoughts:
There is certainly risk here. The biggest risk I believe is if the EB5 program is not extended (I believe the program expires next year). Without the extension, perhaps most of the conceptual plan could be tossed away or take another 5-10 years to happen. However like I have said, Bill plays his hand well. There wasn’t a certain sign in front of JPR and a certain letter in the Newport Daily in October for naught.

I will be happy as a clam as long as the snow gods give us plentiful blower powder on top of a good base, plus snowmobile parking/access at the mountain. Not too many places in the Northeast where you have a cool mtns plus 3 other high quality options (Smuggs, Burke, Sutton) w/in an hour drive. :beer:

[Steve W. – if you read this, I might email you down the road on snowmobile access; figured I would mentioned it while it was on mind so that you can make a mental note of it; I was talking to someone recently who said JPR used to allow it but stopped, although you were looking at allowing it again – I am a few years away from being set-up, so haven’t asked around further; I realize that you will need policies in place so people don’t tear up the golf course plus the x-country skiers – perhaps some cameras, and can always get that Howie groundskeeper guy in the magazine to track them down; I would love access from Wilderness ROW][Steve -- different subject, word on the street is that Bill was in the bathroom when Shumlin’s asked him last month to please stand – I know perhaps only you will understand/appreciate this comment; you and I were right in the Nov thread; hopefully everyone is kosher, and I don’t think Bill not being there was a big deal]

 

[JPTracker]

As most here know, none of this expansion would be happening without the EB5 (especially in this economy). Without 25 years of networking, playing one’s political hand well, and preparing/waiting for the opportunity of a lifetime (MSSI selling) by one person (should say two plus since I believe he has a wife, and he has a good support staff) none of this expansion would probably have been possible – add in, without Bill/Pat L there might not have been a viable and usable EB5 program. I realize that some will have philosophical issues with the EB5 program, but I will just say that there are few if any alternative ways to finance major growth for an economic engine in a rural, high-unemployment area (esp a ski area, since the the # of skiers/boarders is rapidly declining). There is perhaps also an element of luck – without Bill finding Ariel to help buy JPR none of this might have been possible; without the Montreal market being 1:40 away (and don’t underestimate the draw from Ottawa), the expansion might not be feasible.

+1

 

[BenedictGomez]

As most here know, none of this expansion would be happening without the EB5 (especially in this economy). Without 25 years of networking, playing one’s political hand well, and preparing/waiting for the opportunity of a lifetime (MSSI selling) by one person (should say two plus since I believe he has a wife, and he has a good support staff) none of this expansion would probably have been possible – add in, without Bill/Pat L there might not have been a viable and usable EB5 program. I realize that some will have philosophical issues with the EB5 program, but I will just say that there are few if any alternative ways to finance major growth for an economic engine in a rural, high-unemployment area (esp a ski area, since the the # of skiers/boarders is rapidly declining). There is perhaps also an element of luck – without Bill finding Ariel to help buy JPR none of this might have been possible; without the Montreal market being 1:40 away (and don’t underestimate the draw from Ottawa), the expansion might not be feasible.

I dont blame the owners at all for utilizing the EB5 program. They're doing nothing wrong and are simply playing within the framework of rules that were created. That said, as I said before, I'm one of the ones that dislikes EB5.

As far as it relates to JPR, however, I believe that they have outkicked their coverage so to speak on this one. Despite the Field of Dreams mantra of, "If you build it they will come", that is not always reality in business Location, location, location as they always say, and I just do not know that there is a market for a high volume mega-resort in the far reaches of Northern Vermont. You need to actually have people on site to spend money, and Jay Peak is simply too inconvenient for too many to get to. It has always been a crux, and I just dont see how any of this changes that. But it sure must be nice for the folks who live up there and I wish them well. Hopefully 20 years from now the first player from Derby or Newport will be drafted into the NHL.

Final thoughts:
There is certainly risk here. The biggest risk I believe is if the EB5 program is not extended (I believe the program expires next year). Without the extension, perhaps most of the conceptual plan could be tossed away or take another 5-10 years to happen. However like I have said, Bill plays his hand well. There wasn’t a certain sign in front of JPR and a certain letter in the Newport Daily in October for naught.

Sure, there's risk, but with money so hard to come by all over the world, I imagine it will be extended. And probably with very little promotion and fanfare.

 

[riverc0il]

Benedict- Don't forget Jay is really close to Montreal. Also, its not like Jay has a lack of skier visits. It is already outgrowing its existing downhill capacity due to demand. Likely more (and better quality) on mountain lodging will increase demand. How much is too much? How much fights to too little slice of the pie (because there aren't many new pies being baked)? There certainly is a saturation point. Jay has the location for Montreal. For Metro, they really aren't too much further north than many other NoVT areas. Sugarloaf seems to have done well despite its location. There is something to be said for a quality product over location.

 

[Magog Fishy]

BenedictGomez

Please keep in mind that Bill has two major off-mountain EB5 projects in the pipeline, which I think are partially if not fully counted in the $200m number.

 

[Steve@jpr]

You guys are all over this. I have nothing substantial, creative or interesting to add. This is not wholly unusual.

But I will add that, per Bill, there is zero chance that Andre's/BP will be touched. It's not on the table and only being referenced as a mis-read (or mis-print) of the map I believe.

As to the world of EB-5, as Riv, mentioned (and referring to the sustainability of our business model)-there's a life beyond our borders here in the US. Depending on how cut up QC-there's a 4-6 million person day market to talk to and that expands exponentially once you get into the destination markets of Ottawa, Toronto, etc..

Anyway, if you have questions, fire away. If not, I'll just sit back.

steve

 

[deadheadskier]

While I agree with most* of your assessment, it doesn't make it right. Basically, they jump to the head of the line just because they're rich. It's wrong.

and very common to other Nations outside of the US.

I investigated citinzenship in New Zealand many years ago. Very difficult country to get into and work unless you have a needed skill; generally medical.

.....but, if you had 300K at the time and were willing to put it into a gov't adminstered escrow account for several years, you could get citizenship.

 

[Sick Bird Rider]

But I will add that, per Bill, there is zero chance that Andre's/BP will be touched. It's not on the table and only being referenced as a mis-read (or mis-print) of the map I believe.
steve

This is a great discussion and the quote above is the best thing to come out out of it yet.

 

[neil]

Not to get too political, but I see a lot of people talking about this EB-5 visa in a negative way using phrases like "jump to the start of the line" which doesn't really make sense. There really is no line that you are jumping.

As a non-US citizen who has gone through a few visas, I can tell you that there is NO line to even get in if I wanted to become a US citizen...those days have long gone. Even as someone with a Masters degree in a high demand field, it is still unbelievably difficult for me to get any employment based green card.

 

[SIKSKIER]

Fantastic and facinating discussion here.Very impressed with the quality of the posts.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Not to get too political, but I see a lot of people talking about this EB-5 visa in a negative way using phrases like "jump to the start of the line" which doesn't really make sense. There really is no line that you are jumping.

As a non-US citizen who has gone through a few visas, I can tell you that there is NO line to even get in if I wanted to become a US citizen...those days have long gone. Even as someone with a Masters degree in a high demand field, it is still unbelievably difficult for me to get any employment based green card.

I get what your saying, but I don't. When people say "jump to the front of the line", it's not a term used to describe red tape, not actual people. So when you say that there is no line, but then say it is hard to get a green card, that is what we are reffering to, these people putting down the 500g's get one after a background check of sorts. And you say it is hard (which sucks), but if it weren't, there would be no point in having the EB5 program. I apologize if I am still misunderstaind you.

 

[neil]

There are 5 EB type visas you can get. There is a cap per year on all EB visas and EB-5 are restricted to something like 8% of them. The other EB visas are handed out to your PhD researchers, executives, athletes, religious workers etc.

So because they have a unique qualification (money!), they aren't leapfrogging any kind of red tape or even people.

You could say that it is unfair that you can get a green card based on money...but the whole immigration process is unfair to be honest.

 

[EPB]

There are 5 EB type visas you can get. There is a cap per year on all EB visas and EB-5 are restricted to something like 8% of them. The other EB visas are handed out to your PhD researchers, executives, athletes, religious workers etc.

So because they have a unique qualification (money!), they aren't leapfrogging any kind of red tape or even people.

You could say that it is unfair that you can get a green card based on money...but the whole immigration process is unfair to be honest.

Anyone who is critical for the EB-5 should check other countries' policies concerning immigration. I once learned that Mexico won't let immigrants own waterfront property, and they must have a job that would pay them a multiple of hundreds of times the median Mexican income in order to gain citizenship. The examples in Mexico and other countries go on.

Very few countries are interested in taking garden variety citizens as immigrants, as mentioned on this thread before. Its a fairly simple concept with a strong global precedent. Is it fair? Define fair, and ask, fair to whom? This certainly isn't something I'll be losing sleep over.