The Market's impact on skiing

[Sky]

This market chaos is causing me some discomfort...probably like the rest of you.

The ski industry seems to run on a tight budget as it is, especially the one-season resorts.

But I'm curious to see what happens this winter. I've just seen gas under $3 a gallon, so the price of gas won't be the show-stopper...but maybe the cost of the extra gas to get to that same resort becomes the issue (assuming family budgets tighten up).

What will the resorts do to keep people coming and skiing/riding, staying overnight, eating in the lodges?

This might be the year to find some decent bargains on ski and stay packs...and maybe early sale prices on gear. Better to have folks at the resorts to cover the "fixed" costs...and move inventory.

Thoughts?

 

[Moe Ghoul]

No idea. I suspect if they have snow, we'll come runnin. Somebody posted VT resort pass sales and reservations/rentals. Sounds like they're on track so far.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I really feel like 80 percent of the skiers will still ski as much and 20 percent will ski alot less or not at all..Ski areas are going to have to be creative in their marketing to attract more skiers and riders..there's only so many of us out there and with good deals..they can attract budget conscience skiers and riders. I really think big resorts will do fine..but like you said..the one resort places are going to have to hope for a great snow year..or at least cold or there will be alot more resorts joining NELSAP..

 

[RootDKJ]

Hopefully Mother Nature will help our resorts keep their snowmaking expenses down this year.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

$2.87/gal won't hurt abit and probably going lower.

 

[Phillycore]

It wouldn't surprise me if they cut it down to the smallest amount of lifts running absolutely needed for midweek / night skiing cutting down power usage and the amount of staff needed.

Places like camelback will find every excuse possible to shut down the high speed quads, nothing really new there though...

Places like Blue mt will not do midday grooming whatsoever any longer

Less lift ticket sales from day trippers could force cutbacks somewhere and it normally means the season pass holders suffer in the end.

 

[deadheadskier]

I really feel like 80 percent of the skiers will still ski as much and 20 percent will ski alot less or not at all..Ski areas are going to have to be creative in their marketing to attract more skiers and riders..there's only so many of us out there and with good deals..they can attract budget conscience skiers and riders. I really think big resorts will do fine..but like you said..the one resort places are going to have to hope for a great snow year..or at least cold or there will be alot more resorts joining NELSAP..

I disagree. I think the ratios will be the opposite. It's the 20% folks who get out 10+ days and are passionate about the sport.....they'll keep coming. The 80% who aren't so passionate and ski less than 10 days will cut back.

I'd like to hope that gas prices keep dropping.....but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[snoseek]

I think there will surely be some kind of impact. I also think there will be some serious last minute vacation deals to be had countrywide as a result.

 

[andyzee]

I disagree. I think the ratios will be the opposite. It's the 20% folks who get out 10+ days and are passionate about the sport.....they'll keep coming. The 80% who aren't so passionate and ski less than 10 days will cut back.

I'd like to hope that gas prices keep dropping.....but I'm not holding my breath.

Agreed, and the question here is not gas prices but the market, both will affect the 80%. The present market situation has resulted in some layoffs already, not tell how much further that will go. But, even worst than layoffs, its causing consumer fear. I think as a result, people will start watching their spending. They will be more concerned with getting their credit balances down and savings up.

 

[riverc0il]

I don't think the market is going to have much effect on this season. My opinion is that next year is when most average Americans will really start feeling the pinch once this Wall Street mess starts to trickle down into everyones lives with lots of lay offs and higher prices for goods and services. This year I think people will cut back on disposable income spending for psychological reasons whereas I suspect next year there will be much more cuts out of necessity.

One might think that smaller and mid-sized ski areas stand to lose the most... but they are really in a good position to take advantage of opportunity with their cost savings. That would take advertising and marketing though, two areas that most small and mid-sized areas don't do very well in.

 

[Geoff]

A friend of mine in the lodging business said bookings were down 45% from last year. The only thing they are booking is Christmas and even that is slow. It's only one data point but I suspect a lot of people have a reef in their sail. By historical levels, unemployment is still quite low. If the stock market bottoms and starts a gradual rise, I think business will happen. If it's a lean snow year, there are going to be a lot of business failures.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

It wouldn't surprise me if they cut it down to the smallest amount of lifts running absolutely needed for midweek / night skiing cutting down power usage and the amount of staff needed.

Places like camelback will find every excuse possible to shut down the high speed quads, nothing really new there though...

Places like Blue mt will not do midday grooming whatsoever any longer

Less lift ticket sales from day trippers could force cutbacks somewhere and it normally means the season pass holders suffer in the end.

Blue cut back on mid-day(actually around 4PM grooming) last year big-time..one of the joys of going night skiing was arriving to a few freshly groomed runs..

 

[Warp Daddy]

I believe as Moe and others have said before -"-WE AIN"T SEEN NUTHIN YET"

The Derivative Bubble is in the TRILLIONS and Paulson and others are keeping THAT problem in teh closet till after the election when that situation impacts it gets meaner yet .

In teh GREAT Depression nominally 1929 they did NOT fine BOTTOM til 1932 and all several safeguards that were put in place during FDR's run have been trashed by DERULATION --- SO STAY TUNED for more pain

Skiing will be impacted ----- the 20 /80 notion is prolly near right BUT even that could be OPTIMISTIC

Hey there's always free heeling , earn your turns or XC

 

[ski63]

It seems to me, the areas that will end up being hurt by the current "financial crisis" are the ones that have to much debt on there current infrastructure.
One poor year with continued snowmaking to rebuild melted snow bases could end it for some.
On the other hand we are a couple of years past the peak of the 11 year solar cycle so a long, cold winter is a good possibility.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

On the other hand we are a couple of years past the peak of the 11 year solar cycle so a long, cold winter is a good possibility.

That's what I'm hoping for...I set aside the money for this ski season last January..now I need to start saving for 09-10...the only thing that would keep me off the slopes would be an alien attack or getting hit by a meteor(unless it's a small meteor)..lol

 

[frozencorn]

Ski early, ski often. With the current economy, I don't forecast many places staying open into late April, not if they don't get the Christmas and Feb. vacation dollars they are accustomed to.

 

[Sky]

Andy's quote:

The present market situation has resulted in some layoffs already, not tell how much further that will go. But, even worst than layoffs, its causing consumer fear. I think as a result, people will start watching their spending.



riverc0il's quote:

This year I think people will cut back on disposable income spending for psychological reasons whereas I suspect next year there will be much more cuts out of necessity.


Warp Daddy opened door #3. For the uninformed (me), there's that naive optimism that we just keep plugging away, noses to the grind stone attitude which will make everything better (or at least less worse).

Andy's and RC's point about the consumer's pyschology, the impact on their spending...and the ultimate downward spiral reduced consumerism's impact will have on the economy will impact even the folks who have invested into THIS season..."cutting one's losses" so to speak.

Sure there will be the more hard-core/dedicated (read addicted :> ) folks who will revel on the abandoned slopes, use the avaialable (read "turning") lifts...or "eran" their turns. But if the psyche of the consumer spirals lower (and in that direction faster)...hell / handbasket issues willl prevail.



Let's Go Red Sox! *sigh*

 

[jsul]

Stowe up for sale?

http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/82367/

 

[Moe Ghoul]

My guess is, fewer folks are going to plan/commit to a reservation months in advance and take a last minute approach to the season if money is an issue. With this much fear and uncertainty, who wants to book a trip in January and tie up deposit money if there's a chance of a layoff, early retirement or biz failure. I just got our ski club flyer this week, and all but 2 trips still have availability. Last year, at least the cheaper bustrips were usually sold out once announced.

 

[thinnmann]

An average American effect

I don't think the market is going to have much effect on this season. My opinion is that next year is when most average Americans will really start feeling the pinch once this Wall Street mess starts to trickle down into everyones lives with lots of lay offs and higher prices for goods and services.....

My most local ski shop apparently slipped out of business a couple weeks ago. And I have like $100 credit there from their ski swap last year. Guess they got that cash and I am stupid for not using it sooner.