Week of Feb 27 to March 3 -- 2012

[Tooth]

Hey WinnChill. Im hearing this is looking great for the Maine mountains. Are things ticking a bit north as the mets are saying? Did you see this?

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

 

[WinnChill]

Hey WinnChill. Im hearing this is looking great for the Maine mountains. Are things ticking a bit north as the mets are saying? Did you see this?

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

Very slightly if anything, but anytime you get a broad E-SE flow off the ocean, most of ME and NH are fair game anyways. NAM tends to everdo precip a bit so be cautious with those maps. This will be a lengthy upslope enhancement setup so your E-SE facing slopes like Sunday River, Black, and possibly Sugarloaf will be favored.

 

[John W]

Thanks Dr Chill!!!! I appreciate the advice!

 

[Wavewheeler]

Headed up north Wednesday or thursday for a long weekend... cant wait

Same here! I'd already planned to head up north and this is some serious icing on the cake!".

Made a hotel reservation at a hotel in North Creek and arranged to take off early from work Wednesday. Hope to be driving up/waking up in a winter wonderland. Glad I have 4WD!

 

[billski]

Same here! I'd already planned to head up north and this is some serious icing on the cake!".

Made a hotel reservation at a hotel in North Creek and arranged to take off early from work Wednesday. Hope to be driving up/waking up in a winter wonderland. Glad I have 4WD!

Where you dudes going to be? I met up with Edd and a colleague today at Burke. I'll be at JP and $$teaux this Sat/Fri.

 

[billski]

NECN, Tim Kelly

 

[billski]

WBZ

 

[Tooth]

Billski,

What are thoughts here? Those maps dont match up very well.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Those maps dont match up very well.

If I had to guess, I'd think maybe it's because the models are kindof disagreeing on this, so some mets may come up with different visions based on which model(s) they're giving more credence. Some seem to be cutting a bit south, some seem to be trending a bit north. We'll know more in a little bit when the 00z UKMET and Euro come out. Think....north....north...north....north....north......

 

[Glenn]

SoVT could use a good dose of natural snow at this point.

 

[Tooth]

70's next week. Oh no. Torch. :flame:

 

[mlctvt]

70's next week. Oh no. Torch. :flame:

I saw that on the weather forums too. WTF can this season get any worse ! They're calling this storm the "season ending" storm due to the torch coming next week.

NOAA is calling for snow turning to freezing rain for southern VTwith up to 1/4" of ice. Most other reports are still calling for all snow. I was thinking of taking Friday of from work so I could get at least 1 powder day in this year but it looks like it's all up in the air still.

 

[ScottySkis]

It's snowing at mount snow now, today will be great.

 

[hammer]

What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.

 

[billski]

70's next week. Oh no. Torch. :flame:

Tim Kelly said we only have ten days of pow. I'm starting to think that softened up woods will be nice. Stay north for base.

 

[billski]

What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.

I'll let you know

 

[billski]

Billski,

What are thoughts here? Those maps dont match up very well.

I don't know nothing about weather, I just rely on my gut. Those two maps say that nobody knows. My gut says it will be a crapshoot right up to the 11th hour. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. I win more than I lose, but we don't get many pow days here. "You won't know until you go"

I lean heavily on Snowforecast/Winnchill, FIS, Little bits I glean from powderfreak, Tim Kelly and Herb Stevens. No original analysis on my part, just plagiarized intelligence, and past track records..

Go in the woods and see what the critters are doing. That is as good a predictor than anything scientific.

BTW, we have not heard from Voodoo Lady in a long time....

 

[WinnChill]

What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.

Hmmm, you may want to reconsider.

 

[billski]

Look, can't decide wheter to take a day off from work? Look at these reports from today.
'nuff said.
NWS:
GIVEN THE TWO SHOTS OF STEADIER SNOWS...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW WILL EXIST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. IN ADDITION...THERMAL
PROFILE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUGGESTS SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

afd:
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO INTO THU NIGHT
* ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY

CONFIDENCE...
TRICKY FORECAST TO START AS MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING OF SWITCHING THE
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN AS WELL AS THE EXACT LOCATION THAT WILL
OCCUR. INCREASING CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWEEP ON
BY ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MARCH SEEMS TO ENTER AS A LION AS THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A LONGER
DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE REGION BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER
ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF
QG FORCING ALOFT...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING...NAM IS HINTING THAT BANDING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL TO
EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW CAN
SAY THAT SOME REGIONS WILL SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL AS THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND MAY CAUSE FOR A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE. THE MAIN
MIXED PRECIP LINE IS RIGHT ACROSS CONNECTICUT TO THE CAPE. THIS MAY
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF ATMOSPHERE AS TIME DRAWS
NEAR. CURRENTLY COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMS BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT AMOUNTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY TEMPS
WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH
COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ESP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR NOW
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH AND EXPECT 6-8 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATCH
AREA WILL SEE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW. ACROSS THE 95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARDS...INCLUDING PVD AND BOS...EXPECT 1-4 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS
WILL CHANGE OVERTIME SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN WINTER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. BELIEVE FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE AREA.


Go now dudes:
from american wx:

I think we see widespread 70+ the 2nd week of Morch. This is it winter fans. The season finale is this storm.

Morch is sping

If models are right, it could be that warm. 70 anyways.

 

[billski]

Look, can't decide wheter to take a day off from work? Look at these reports from today.
'nuff said.
NWS:
GIVEN THE TWO SHOTS OF STEADIER SNOWS...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW WILL EXIST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. IN ADDITION...THERMAL
PROFILE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUGGESTS SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

afd:
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO INTO THU NIGHT
* ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY

CONFIDENCE...
TRICKY FORECAST TO START AS MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING OF SWITCHING THE
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN AS WELL AS THE EXACT LOCATION THAT WILL
OCCUR. INCREASING CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWEEP ON
BY ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MARCH SEEMS TO ENTER AS A LION AS THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A LONGER
DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE REGION BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER
ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF
QG FORCING ALOFT...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING...NAM IS HINTING THAT BANDING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL TO
EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW CAN
SAY THAT SOME REGIONS WILL SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL AS THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND MAY CAUSE FOR A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE. THE MAIN
MIXED PRECIP LINE IS RIGHT ACROSS CONNECTICUT TO THE CAPE. THIS MAY
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF ATMOSPHERE AS TIME DRAWS
NEAR. CURRENTLY COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMS BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT AMOUNTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY TEMPS
WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH
COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ESP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR NOW
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH AND EXPECT 6-8 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATCH
AREA WILL SEE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW. ACROSS THE 95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARDS...INCLUDING PVD AND BOS...EXPECT 1-4 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS
WILL CHANGE OVERTIME SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN WINTER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. BELIEVE FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE AREA.


Go now dudes:
from american wx:

I think we see widespread 70+ the 2nd week of Morch. This is it winter fans. The season finale is this storm.

Morch is sping

If models are right, it could be that warm. 70 anyways.