Week of February 24 to March 2

[WinnChill]

Yeah, winds an an issue Wed...Cannon doesn't do well with a SE flow. Snow carries well into Thurs so accumulations could be pretty high...still evaluating.

Edit-Snow starts late overnight/early Wed AM

 

[billski]

Yeah, winds an an issue Wed...Cannon doesn't do well with a SE flow. Snow carries well into Thurs so accumulations could be pretty high...still evaluating.

Edit-Snow starts late overnight/early Wed AM

OK Winnchill. I just read your snowforecast.com narrative. It seems clear to me that Wednesday is going to be mega-windy at the summits north. So here are the questions. - What is the probability that this thing is either going to slow down and/or hit us early? That is, what's the variability in it's movement. - A corallary, when is the bulk of the precip going to fall, with a margin of error? - How confident are you on the rain-snow demarcation line? Thanks C.

 

[billski]

OK guys. If you could pick one day and one place to go this week where would it be? Need some guidance. I might take a sick day

Sick Nick

Let's see how WinnChill responds to my questions below. That might better define it for me.

 

[Puck it]

OK Winnchill. I just read your snowforecast.com narrative. It seems clear to me that Wednesday is going to be mega-windy at the summits north. So here are the questions. - What is the probability that this thing is either going to slow down and/or hit us early? That is, what's the variability in it's movement. - A corallary, when is the bulk of the precip going to fall, with a margin of error? - How confident are you on the rain-snow demarcation line? Thanks C.

It seems like with the winds that he is saying wind holds may be an issue at Cannon for Wed. Good questions, BTW.

 

[billski]

It seems like with the winds that he is saying wind holds may be an issue at Cannon for Wed. Good questions, BTW.

Hi Winn,

My sense, and I'm no pro is that there will be very high winds (topping gusts of 50) throughout the storm system, but it drops off quickly. That, according to the NWS maps. But again, that's why I count on you for the summits and snowdays

My gut also tells me that this may be very moisture laden, so what comes down stays where it is, regardless of the winds. Your thought?

Thanks,

 

[WinnChill]

OK Winnchill. I just read your snowforecast.com narrative. It seems clear to me that Wednesday is going to be mega-windy at the summits north. So here are the questions. - What is the probability that this thing is either going to slow down and/or hit us early? That is, what's the variability in it's movement. - A corallary, when is the bulk of the precip going to fall, with a margin of error? - How confident are you on the rain-snow demarcation line? Thanks C.

Not much timing variability--it's a slow mover anyways so it's tough to nail exact start times but gradual snow development west to east thru AM, so by Wed PM, snow should be starting to accumulate. Winds increase through the day--PM would be strongest and most likely chance of wind holds. Still looks like most mixing holds to around or just south of Sunapee thru Gunstock (possible mixing at these areas and perhaps even into Waterville a bit too).

 

[hammer]

Not much timing variability--it's a slow mover anyways so it's tough to nail exact start times but gradual snow development west to east thru AM, so by Wed PM, snow should be starting to accumulate. Winds increase through the day--PM would be strongest and most likely chance of wind holds. Still looks like most mixing holds to around or just south of Sunapee thru Gunstock (possible mixing at these areas and perhaps even into Waterville a bit too).

So will it just be NCP (nair) south of the MA/NH border? Saw that Nashua is under a Winter Storm Watch and Francestown (Crotched) is under a Winter Storm Warning...

 

[WinnChill]

So will it just be NCP (nair) south of the MA/NH border? Saw that Nashua is under a Winter Storm Watch and Francestown (Crotched) is under a Winter Storm Warning...

Crotched could still mix. The Winter Storm Warning covers the potential of getting that accumulation before mixing (late PM/eve). I'll be tweaking the forecast throughout the day...

 

[billski]

So it will leave just as predictably as it comes in? That is, by early Thursday it will depart? Any Idea what the timing difference will be between Magic and Sugarloaf? Sorry, I'm over - analyzing!

 

[WinnChill]

So it will leave just as predictably as it comes in? That is, by early Thursday it will depart? Any Idea what the timing difference will be between Magic and Sugarloaf? Sorry, I'm over - analyzing!

Nope. This is a slow mover--the upper level low creeps through. The leading edge of moisture is the bulk of our snow (Wed and overnight)--that gradually shifts away into Thurs but residual upper level energy and moisture help out with continued lighter occasional snow/showers thru Thurs and even a bit into Friday (ME resorts the last holdout). Additional accumulations will be gradual and lighter. Hope that helps.

 

[Puck it]

The leading edge of moisture is the bulk of our snow (Wed and overnight)--

Would this be the timing for Cannon? How do you think will fall Wed night in Thursday morning? I am worried about the winds Wed.

 

[WinnChill]

Would this be the timing for Cannon? How do you think will fall Wed night in Thursday morning? I am worried about the winds Wed.

Yep. All snow--perhaps a lull overnight early Thurs AM. Winds will be strongest Wed PM.

 

[Puck it]

Yep. All snow--perhaps a lull overnight early Thurs AM. Winds will be strongest Wed PM.

I meant to say. How do you think will fall overnight Wed into Thurs? Thx.

 

[WinnChill]

I meant to say. How do you think will fall overnight Wed into Thurs? Thx.

How much will fall?

 

[St. Bear]

Winn, if I were you, I'd create a thread and post every day that you plan to go skiing, and people would just buy you beers left and right for all the hard work you do.

 

[Puck it]

How much will fall?

I can not type today. Sorry. I looked at your report all ready. I am confused by the Wed. forecast.

SKY CONDITION
Storm Day!--moderate to possibly heavy snowfall continuing--mixing should stay south--moderate to slightly heavy accumulations likely--gusty east/southeast winds and blowing snow
PRECIPITATION
90-100% chance of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall from overnight continuing





Does this mean Wed night?

 

[WinnChill]

I can not type today. Sorry. I looked at your report all ready. I am confused by the Wed. forecast.

SKY CONDITION
Storm Day!--moderate to possibly heavy snowfall continuing--mixing should stay south--moderate to slightly heavy accumulations likely--gusty east/southeast winds and blowing snow
PRECIPITATION
90-100% chance of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall from overnight continuing


Does this mean Wed night?

Ah, I see what you mean...sorry. Snow develops late tonight/early Wed AM...that's just to reflect waking up Wed AM to some falling snow but it gets ramped up later on, that's all.

 

[Puck it]

Ah, I see what you mean...sorry. Snow develops late tonight/early Wed AM...that's just to reflect waking up Wed AM to some falling snow but it gets ramped up later on, that's all.

Thx.

 

[WinnChill]

Ah, I see what you mean...sorry. Snow develops late tonight/early Wed AM...that's just to reflect waking up Wed AM to some falling snow but it gets ramped up later on, that's all.

How's this?

 

[Puck it]

That works!!

Precipitation
90-100% chance of light snow developing Tues night--then moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall into PM/overnight