Week of Feb 27 to March 3 -- 2012

[billski]

I think WinnChill is on to something. He writes,

"The midweek storm looks more substantial so we'll be watching that closely--maybe some mixing for southern areas. Stay tuned!"

So I did a little snooping, and found this from NWS:


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1119 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

--

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
334 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012


MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER DYNAMICS DOMINATE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL TRACK A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AS OPPOSED TO MIX OR RAIN. IN
ANY EVENT...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT.

AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES AS RIDGING BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NEXT LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SLATED TO
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY.


I can't believe I'll be up north this Sun/Mon and back again on Thurs-Sunday.
I don't think there will be many friends this week!

 

[billski]

Herb Stevens

Herb Stevens is getting cranked:

"Written by Herb Stevens-The Skiing Weatherman on 24 February 2012.

As I suggested in my last report, the pattern was about to enter a phase that would finally bring some snow to the Midwest and Northeast on more of a regular basis
..
it will NOT signal the start of spring, for an MJO driven return to cold and potentially snowy weather later in the month will be a good bet...and good news as we attempt to stretch this frustrating season out toward the Easter holiday.

...
The parade of storms will continue next week, with the next one set to move through with a round of light snow in the mountains Monday and Tuesday. There will be a shot of cold air behind that event, and it will penetrate further down the eastern seaboard, which will set the stage for a more widespread snow and ice event through the East in the midweek period,
...

By the fifth of March or so, it looks as though it will turn warmer over the eastern half of the country, with a more significant trough taking shape in the West. That bodes well for skiing and riding in the West, but that could be the death knell for the season at some lower elevation eastern resorts, where they have never had the chance to build up the sort of base depths that would sustain sliding well into March.

The moral of the story is this in the Midwest and East...if you want to enjoy mid winter packed powder, you'd better get out there in the next ten days...after that, we will be looking at more spring-like surfaces.


Next week will bring another storm or two, and the track will be determined in part by how far south the cold shot that is coming late in the weekend makes it. Right now, I favor a track along I-90, with a secondary low forming along the coast, which will serve to limit the amount of warm air that can spread into northern New England. North of the track it will snow...south of the track it will be a snow to rain scenario, or just plain rain, I am afraid. So, in the near term, conditions will be just fine north of I-90, with good snow also found between I-90 and I-80. South of 80, it appears that both consistent cold and natural snow will be in short supply, as the storm track will be running further north. Another storm would appear to be in the cards late next week, and once again, it appears as though low pressure will cut through the Northeast, rather than take a coastal track, so a mix of precip types will result, with the northern resorts likely to be the winners...again.

 

[MommaBear]

Not making the same mistake twice. Will be headed further North for the next one. Kids and their terrain park be damned. :smash:

 

[Wavewheeler]

Let is snow!

This could coincide well with my planned trip Thurs-Friday. I don't know where I'm winding up on Wednesday night when I pack the skis in my Jeep and head north but hopefully someplace WHITE because this could be IT! Ah, to wake up to fresh white stuff on Thursday....

If I have to go further north in search of it...I will! I can't tell you how depressing it's been this year to drive through brown and more brown to get to the slopes. I pray that it doesn't rain. I hate rain....

 

[Wavewheeler]

Not making the same mistake twice. Will be headed further North for the next one. Kids and their terrain park be damned. :smash:

Now I have to ask..what happened?

 

[MommaBear]

Now I have to ask..what happened?

We own near Mount Snow but have tickets via ski club for other mountains (Burke, Magic, Killington) still to be used this year. They were calling for 5 inches or so but it rained all day yesterday. We talked about hitting one of the other mountains higher up for today but let our terrain park kids talk us out of it. Result? 2 inches received, wind holds on all summit lifts, north face never opened. The Nitro lift opened so the kids had their parks. I spent the day working at the condo and reading about the foot of power at Burke with no wind. Blah. .

 

[Wavewheeler]

I spent the day working at the condo and reading about the foot of power at Burke with no wind. Blah. .

I guess Mount Snow didn't get much in the way of snow. I've never been there because it seems there's always a lot more in the way of better conditions just an hour north

As a parent I feel your pain. I hate when a day is "wasted" and all you do is think of lost opportunities.

 

[St. Bear]

Gotta hope this long term forecast comes through. The wifey owes me for missing this weekend.

 

[steamboat1]

.

 

[ScottySkis]

Yahoo snow coming are way.

 

[4aprice]

Herb Stevens is getting cranked:

"Written by Herb Stevens-The Skiing Weatherman on 24 February 2012.

As I suggested in my last report, the pattern was about to enter a phase that would finally bring some snow to the Midwest and Northeast on more of a regular basis
..
it will NOT signal the start of spring, for an MJO driven return to cold and potentially snowy weather later in the month will be a good bet...and good news as we attempt to stretch this frustrating season out toward the Easter holiday.

...
The parade of storms will continue next week, with the next one set to move through with a round of light snow in the mountains Monday and Tuesday. There will be a shot of cold air behind that event, and it will penetrate further down the eastern seaboard, which will set the stage for a more widespread snow and ice event through the East in the midweek period,
...

By the fifth of March or so, it looks as though it will turn warmer over the eastern half of the country, with a more significant trough taking shape in the West. That bodes well for skiing and riding in the West, but that could be the death knell for the season at some lower elevation eastern resorts, where they have never had the chance to build up the sort of base depths that would sustain sliding well into March.

The moral of the story is this in the Midwest and East...if you want to enjoy mid winter packed powder, you'd better get out there in the next ten days...after that, we will be looking at more spring-like surfaces.


Next week will bring another storm or two, and the track will be determined in part by how far south the cold shot that is coming late in the weekend makes it. Right now, I favor a track along I-90, with a secondary low forming along the coast, which will serve to limit the amount of warm air that can spread into northern New England. North of the track it will snow...south of the track it will be a snow to rain scenario, or just plain rain, I am afraid. So, in the near term, conditions will be just fine north of I-90, with good snow also found between I-90 and I-80. South of 80, it appears that both consistent cold and natural snow will be in short supply, as the storm track will be running further north. Another storm would appear to be in the cards late next week, and once again, it appears as though low pressure will cut through the Northeast, rather than take a coastal track, so a mix of precip types will result, with the northern resorts likely to be the winners...again.

Bill:

This to me is the post of the season. I'm hoping Mr Stevens is right. My PA season obligations (read race season) ended yesterday and I'm now free to get up north at my whim. I'll take the spring condtions down here locally and hope the north country gets plastered and lasts till Easter. Thanks for posting this and making my day. (maybe my season). See you all up in the north country.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[WJenness]

Maneuvering for a last-minute vacation day on Thursday begins NOW...

-w

 

[Puck it]

I am thinking the same.

 

[mriceyman]

Headed up north Wednesday or thursday for a long weekend... cant wait

 

[Cheese]

Ditto!

Mandatory "Board" meeting!!!!!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Accuweather has this up today, but keep in mind they do a terrible job with elevation (I think we have all seen some recent evidence of this).

Plus, all that would have to happen is the models come just a very little bit north, and BOOM!!!!

 

[Tooth]

Praying things do get a little north. They better if people want to be skiing into May.

 

[WinnChill]

I'm liking a swath of most snow from about SVT thru S/Central NH to S ME...basically a stretch from Stratton-K-ton thru Sunapee/Gunstock/up to Loon/Cannon over to Shawnee...lesser amounts for northernmost VT/NH/ME areas this time....Waterville, Sunapee and perhaps Gunstock the highlights. The key is that prolonged SE flow from Wed night thru Thurs funneling ocean moisture in....could be interesting. We're ballparking between half a foot and a foot but will see if we need to adjust that higher. We'll see.

 

[John W]

Dr Chill!!! How the hell are ya!!! I have thursday and friday avail to me. I was seeing that Elk in the poconos is expecting heavy snow. I have been DYING to try Gore (never been) and my brother lives in Saratoga. So I could go there.. And I have a ticket left over to Killington. So saratoga means I could head that way too. I guess my question for you is?? At this early day in the week, which location looks most worth the drive from QUEENS BLVD in Queens NY???

Can I check in Wednesday evening??

 

[WinnChill]

Dr Chill!!! How the hell are ya!!! I have thursday and friday avail to me. I was seeing that Elk in the poconos is expecting heavy snow. I have been DYING to try Gore (never been) and my brother lives in Saratoga. So I could go there.. And I have a ticket left over to Killington. So saratoga means I could head that way too. I guess my question for you is?? At this early day in the week, which location looks most worth the drive from QUEENS BLVD in Queens NY???

Can I check in Wednesday evening??

At this point, skip Elk. Gore or K-ton--take your pick...both should make out well. I'll update through the week.