12/12 Storm Speculation Thread

[hammer]

This one's far out and potentially all over the place...but worthy of a thread nevertheless.

 

[WJenness]

About time we had one of these threads!

-w

 

[gmcunni]

 

[hammer]

Still early but...ugh. Let's hope the models start pushing this more east soon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2010
...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT IS LIKELY TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION MAKER ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD FLOOD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF TO PRELUDE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE CWA. IT/S TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW ANY DETAILS...BUT A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN EVENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEXT WEEKEND DRAWS NEARER.

 

[hammer]

Any more comments? Bueller?

 

[drjeff]

This is really starting to look like one of those storms where 50 miles could very well make the difference between a mainly liquid event , a mixed event, and an all snow event. Right now, it's looking like the further West you are, the better the chances of this being an all frozen event.

This could very well be a classic New England "winter mess" storm, where within say 30 - 50 miles of the shoreline gets mainly liquid with some backend light accumulations, 50 to 100 miles or so from the coast gets a mix of precip during the storm with a few inches of all snow as the low pulls away, and 100 miles or so from the coast stays all snow. This storm though until it starts pulling away and drags some REALLY cold air in that should be around next week, will likely feature snow that has a much greater water content in than the upslope snow that's falling across New England now.

The track is going to be everything. A move to the East and less of the warm surge from the South effects Southern/Eastern areas. A move to the West and the liquid/mix line moves further North/West

 

[andrec10]

If everyone thinks hard enough, maybe we can move the track east and south!:lol::lol:

 

[Madroch]

Some of the models are trending for the better, but they have a long way to go (or so I am told- I can't read that stuff!!). Would be nice to have a forecasted rain storm shift and become snow, or at least mostly snow, instead of the usual other way around.

 

[drjeff]

Some of the models are trending for the better, but they have a long way to go (or so I am told- I can't read that stuff!!). Would be nice to have a forecasted rain storm shift and become snow, or at least mostly snow, instead of the usual other way around.

The only thing really certain about the models right now is that there's UNCERTAINTY with this storm. There's plots that have would have this storm being measured in FEET across much of New England, and there's other plots that would have this storm measured in inches (as in inches of r$%n ) over much of New England.

Todays model runs seem to want to increase the speed at which the storm moves across New England a bit more than yesterdays did, which would cut down on accumulations of all types. Some models yesterday were projecting that in the heavier precipitations areas the 1-2" of water (or it's equivalent frozen stuff) could fall during the storm, so this storm should have plenty of moisture to work with. Gotta watch this one

 

[Greg]

Rain storms predicted several days out as this one is/was usually ended up better than all snow storms predicted several days out. There's still hope.

 

[drjeff]

This is from not the "glass is 1/2 full" model, but the "glass is 99.999% full" model with respect to snowfall potential estimates for this storm, the latest DGEX model. Basically this model has the storm both moving way further South and East to pick up a ton of moisture and then SLOWLY moving up the coast. There is really no other model at this time that really even gets close that this scenario, but hey, it's fun to look at and dream!

On the complete flipside, some of the latest runs of the Euro model essentially show this storm giving CHICAGO blizzard conditions and it being essentially a total liquid event for 95% of the Northeast with the storm tracking basically right up the St. Lawrence seaway(the DGEX model above basically takes the storm right up I-95 from the DC area by comparison. There's about a million and 1 variables in play with this thing right now

 

[hammer]

On the complete flipside, some of the latest runs of the Euro model essentially show this storm giving CHICAGO blizzard conditions and it being essentially a total liquid event for the Northeast 95% of the Northeast with the storm tracking basically right up the St. Lawrence seaway. There's about a million and 1 variables in play with this thing right now

That's the one I'm concerned about...would the stronger La Nina favor tracks like this?

 

[Greg]

It's going to be a blizzard north of 95. You heard it hear first. :razz:

 

[Madroch]

Yeah the Euro is the total naysayer-- yech. Even with some optimism from the other models, the reasonable upside for a lot of us is merely colder r*!n. Maybe westernmost and our friends up north do a little better. Still hoping for the best though.

 

[wa-loaf]

Chicago is a waste of a good blizzard.

 

[WJenness]

If this messes up my date for Sunday, I'll be more than a little upset...

-w

 

[wa-loaf]

If this messes up my date for Sunday, I'll be more than a little upset...

-w

Got a date already? That didn't take long.

 

[WJenness]

Got a date already? That didn't take long.

;-)

-w

 

[Big Game]

This is the Big Kahuna.

You heard it here first.

 

[Madroch]

lol-- 18z gfs (supposedly off hour crap from those in the know) has it going out to sea over the benchmark-- if I understand it correctly. We now have from detroit to the atlantic covered.