12/2-12/3 potential storm?

[Justin10]

Well here we go again with a potential storm 5-7 days out. But simply scanning through the forecasts for the north country, sunday night through monday looks like a good possibility of some significant snows. The temperatures seem to be in place initially, but who knows how it will pan out.....keep your fingers crossed!!!

 

[loafer89]

Right now this looks to be an inland running storm with snow to rain/freezing rain for southern and central New England and possibly all snow for northern New England.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I can't wait to ski some fresh Poe...holla

 

[Zand]

I can't wait to ski some fresh Poe...holla

Look out for that crazy poet on the trails...

 

[nelsapbm]

Urgh. Of course I'll be away (in the tropics no less) for the first real snow storm of the year. I love the first real snowfall....oh well. Here's hoping to many more!

 

[ajl50]

Noaa seems to agree. I'm surprised - they aren't often this ballsy

 

[powderfreak]

Sunday Night Through Tuesday might be an exciting time in that it should be
our first widespread, significant winter weather event with between .5 and
1.5 inches of liquid equivalent being modeled at this time. My gut feeling
from the progged surface low track is that we'll see something like a few
inches of snow on the frontside before the area transitions to mixed
precipitation (looks like a lot of sleet to me) for a while, before going
back to snow. I doubt anyone goes over to plain rain with a decent high
pressure system sitting north of the border. We should have ample low level
cold but the trick will be in the mid levels between 5-7K feet...where warm
air from the strong SSE low level jet will surge northward. Just how far
north is the question.

BUT, I'm not watching the actual storm as closely as usual because the
pattern that sets up after the storm is a classic upslope pattern. We could
be looking at a significant, long duration upslope snowfall along the
western slopes of the Green Mountains on Tuesday. Alarms are sounding in my
head when I see a cut-off storm stall in the Maritimes for 12-24 hours,
strong NW winds, and ample low level moisture. The way the synoptic pattern
sets up after the storm, heavy mountain snowfall from Sugarbush northward to
the tune of a foot or more could be possible.

[Edit: For those of you outside of the Green Mountains, these upslope patterns often hit northern NH hard, too. Not sure about ME as much, but definitely Cannon, Wildcat, and Bretton Woods are the resorts to watch next Tuesday in NH. For VT, its Sugarbush, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay with snowfall usually increasing as you head northward along the spine.] Stay tuned on this one.

Here's BTV's AFD from this afternoon on the event...note the last couple
sentences about a stagnant upper low over the Maritimes...

MAIN WX FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THRU MUCH OF MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS TOWARDS
THE REGION. MDLS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SHIFTED ITS TRACKS FROM
BEING COASTL...OVER TO MVG NW OF THE CWA SUN/SUN NGT...W/ SOME
COASTL DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT IF IT FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL CUT MUCH OF THE CWA OFF FROM THE
WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL END UP BRINGING THE CWA A MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIP. CD POOL OF LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO FALL IN FORM OF MIX(SLEET...FZRA AND
LGT SNOW). SOME AREAS WILL SEE BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...BFR GOING
TO ALL SNOW AS CD AIR WRAPS AROUND SYSTEM FROM THE WNW. MDL QPF NEAR
AN INCH WHICH COULD BE PROBLEM IF COASTL DOES DEVELOP...MEANING CWA
WILL SEE MORE SNOW THAN MIX/RAIN. BY MONDAY AFTNOON...REGION ON
BACKSIDE OF EXITING SYSTEM W/ CD AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER N/NW FLOW THRU MIDWEEK AS MDLS HAVE UPPER LOW
STAGNANT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA W/ CHANCE FOR SW DURING THIS TIME...W/ HIR ELEV
SEEING BEST CHANCE FOR LGT ACCUM.

-Scott

 

[Greg]

Any thoughts on what might happen in the Catskills, Scott? Any accumulating snows there?

 

[loafer89]

Snowforecast.com:

Hunter Mountain (Base: 1,600', Top: 3,200')


6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, November 28, 2007

OVERALL SITUATION--TODAY--The storm track will be more west to east rather than from the southwest for the rest of the week. That typically means less moisture with each pass but at least colder temps. We'll be in between systems and back to normal, dry conditions to hit the slopes once again.
THURSDAY--A cold front in the pipeline heads our way with shifting winds again--southwest to northwest--and a quicker moving batch of showers. Temps will be cold enough for light to moderate snow showers but it won't hang around long enough for significant accumulations--generally a quick 2-4" north of the Pike--dusting to a couple of inches south.
FRIDAY--Temperatures take a hit and will be quite cold with westerly breezes for the day (windchills). Conditions look dry for the most part with continued lake effect snow showers for western resorts.
SATURDAY--The rapid fire storm track delivers another quick moving shot of snow showers--again, light accumulations possible but temperatures will remain very cold!
SUNDAY--A beefier batch of moisture will be starting to approach with increased cloud cover and perhaps some late day snow showers/icy mix (depending on timing). Temperatures remain quite cold with windchills but will barely start warming up. A heavier wintry mix develops overnight and into Monday.
MONDAY--A stormy day as low pressure pushes through. Some milder air works in on stronger southerly winds with a rain/snow mix (still too far out for details) but will transition back to colder weather wrapping in on the backside. We'll transition back to snow showers as we turn much colder. We'll keep you posted--CT



Wednesday
Nov 28, 2007

Hi 40°f / 4°c (base)
Lo 21°f / -6°c (base)


Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S at up to 15 mph.



Thursday
Nov 29, 2007

Hi 40°f / 4°c (base)
Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)


Sky Condition:
Chance of Light Snow Showers
Precipitation:
40% Chance of snow - Snow Potential: (0.813 cm. | 0.32 in.)
Snow Potential
Expecting 0.32inches
Wind:
SSW at up to 15 mph.



Friday
Nov 30, 2007

Hi 33°f / 1°c (base)
Lo 13°f / -11°c (base)


Sky Condition:
Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers
Precipitation:
Slight Chance (20%) of snow
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
WSW at up to 15 mph.



Saturday
Dec 01, 2007

Hi 23°f / -5°c (base)
Lo 11°f / -12°c (base)


Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
WNW at up to 10 mph.



Sunday
Dec 02, 2007

Hi 30°f / -1°c (base)
Lo 19°f / -7°c (base)


Sky Condition:
Chance of Very Light Snow
Precipitation:
50% Chance of snow
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
WSW at up to 15 mph.



Monday
Dec 03, 2007

Hi 37°f / 3°c (base)
Lo 12°f / -11°c (base)


Sky Condition:
Chance of Light Rain
Precipitation:
40% Chance of rain showers
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
W at up to 20 mph.

 

[Justin10]

Looks like its starting to trend a little more towards a colder scenario over the last few runs of the models. Keep praying for snow!!!!!

 

[ajl50]

As far as the noaa discussion and the gfs models go the trend has been for the 850 MB freezing line to not extend very far north and thus cutting the chances for sleet down somewhat.
We'll see however!

THis storm is crazy for early december-- it's going to drop 1-2 feet from the wasatch, 2-3 feet on the san juans in sothern colorado, create nasty winds on the plains, leave somebody with some sick ice problem and give us some good snow.


who killed a goat for Ullr?

 

[snoseek]

As far as the noaa discussion and the gfs models go the trend has been for the 850 MB freezing line to not extend very far north and thus cutting the chances for sleet down somewhat.
We'll see however!

THis storm is crazy for early december-- it's going to drop 1-2 feet from the wasatch, 2-3 feet on the san juans in sothern colorado, create nasty winds on the plains, leave somebody with some sick ice problem and give us some good snow.


who killed a goat for Ullr?

Me, and I ate it Jamaican style. Taking a little crested butte/monarch?/silverton? road trip starting Sunday. I hope this really happens for everyone. I wish Taos would open up.

 

[loafer89]

Albany forecast discussion from this morning:

THE
POTENTIAL WL EXISTS FOR WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FOR MANY OF THE SKI
RESORTS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN DACKS BY TUES...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR THE CPV. WL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO
THIS MORNING.

 

[ALLSKIING]

Albany forecast discussion from this morning:

THE
POTENTIAL WL EXISTS FOR WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FOR MANY OF THE SKI
RESORTS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN DACKS BY TUES...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR THE CPV. WL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO
THIS MORNING.

:beer:

 

[loafer89]

My wife just gave me consent to stay up north on sunday night with Warren

It's an educational day off from school:razz:

 

[ajl50]

what finals?
Nice...I just hope that too much mixing doesn't occur

 

[pepperdawg]

Loafer beat me to it.....

Heh heh heh....next Wed I'm off.....heh heh heh...


FEEL SYSTEM WL COME IN TWO EVENTS...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW
TO MID LVL WAA LIFT AND GOOD 5H PVA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF 6 TO 8 HR WINDOW OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE ROUND TWO ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE/WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DEVELOPS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS MONDAY AFTN THRU
TUES. GIVEN...DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW/CPV
CONVERGENCE...AND GOOD SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL...A PROLONGED AND
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT LOOKS VERY LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS...AND MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE
POTENTIAL WL EXISTS FOR WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FOR MANY OF THE SKI
RESORTS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN DACKS BY TUES...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR THE CPV. WL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO
THIS MORNING.

 

[Greg]

Maybe see an MRG opening next week?

 

[thebigo]

From mattnoyes.net:

This means the potential is there for a significant snowstorm of over one foot through the interior of central and *especially* northern New England Sunday night through Monday, and if the storm center should sit close enough to the Downeast Maine coastline on Monday, blizzard conditions couldn't be entirely ruled out for interior eastern Maine, though most of the remainder of the region would find lighter wind.

http://www.mattnoyes.net/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/30/sfx_matt_jet2.jpg

With this news I informed the boss I will be at sugarloaf instead of the office on monday.

Off topic but with all the technology available to the noaa why cant they use the caps lock key? Am I the only one that finds the discussions in all caps extremely difficult to read?

 

[JD]

Looks like SVT might make out the best.