17/18 First dartboard

[BenedictGomez]

Already planning based on this.

If recent NOAA long-range winter history is a guide, do the exact opposite.

 

[BenedictGomez]

JB out today saying global models are starting to align for another La Nina winter. Hopefully that pans out.

 

[Abubob]

Weatherbell's first guess.....

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18

Look how warm the arctic is. That can't be good in the long run. Eh ... one winter at a time. Looking "normal" in the NE so far.

 

[Jully]

Look how warm the arctic is. That can't be good in the long run. Eh ... one winter at a time. Looking "normal" in the NE so far.

Feels colder than last September in NE at least! Would love for this to continue into a cool October.

 

[skiberg]

I would not wish for La Nina or El Nino. Average winter is best. Studies have shown that their is not a statistical correlation between either weather event and more snow. If we have a good winter during a particular event, their is no guarantee it will happen again in the future. We are just as likely have a bad ski season in a La Nina year as we are El Nino. You also have to account for all the other factors that influence weather, like Artic Oscillation, Blocking etc. Both El Nino and La Nina are not solely predictive of anything as far as snowfall in NE. I am no weather expert, but once I actually read the snowfall studies relative to El Nino/La Nina I learned a lot.

 

[slatham]

All El Nino's and La Nina's are not created equal, both in strength and structure. While a strong La Nina has correlated with warm/snowless winters in the NE, a weak to even moderate does not. Also, there's research indicating that one key is the difference between zone 3.4 (near date line) and 1.2 (close to SA coast). Warmer 3.4 vs 1.2 is good, the opposite is bad. One reason for last winter not being as good as it could have been is 1.2 warmed significantly (amongst other factors, like the central pacific cooling and the strength of the pacific jet etc) . The winter of 13/14 (or was it 14/15?) had a strong warm signal in 3.4 and it was epic......

 

[Not Sure]

All El Nino's and La Nina's are not created equal, both in strength and structure. While a strong La Nina has correlated with warm/snowless winters in the NE, a weak to even moderate does not. Also, there's research indicating that one key is the difference between zone 3.4 (near date line) and 1.2 (close to SA coast). Warmer 3.4 vs 1.2 is good, the opposite is bad. One reason for last winter not being as good as it could have been is 1.2 warmed significantly (amongst other factors, like the central pacific cooling and the strength of the pacific jet etc) . The winter of 13/14 (or was it 14/15?) had a strong warm signal in 3.4 and it was epic......

So what your saying is El Nino's and La Nina's are free to identify with what ever gender they wish ?:grin:

 

[slatham]

So what your saying is El Nino's and La Nina's are free to identify with what ever gender they wish ?:grin:

Ha, yes, and may change gender in the middle of the winter too.

 

[Not Sure]

https://www.weatherbell.com/#featured

Saturday summary FF to 8:32 La Nina developing

 

[BenedictGomez]

It's true that La Nina is no "guarantee" for a snowier NE winter, but it is conducive to slightly colder than normal, and more importantly, a higher conveyor belt, both important things conducive to snow where you want it. Two decent signals, and I'll take that over poor signals.

 

[Los]

Feels colder than last September in NE at least! Would love for this to continue into a cool October.

It's been a heatwave ever since and it looks like that will continue to the end of the month.


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[Jully]

It's been a heatwave ever since and it looks like that will continue to the end of the month.


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Yeah... summer has returned in full force.

 

[dlague]

We had that a week or two ago and now has cooled down in the mountains and snowed at A Basin and other high elevations. The cold front we had this weekend is likely headed your way.

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[chuckstah]

We had that a week or two ago and now has cooled down in the mountains and snowed at A Basin and other high elevations. The cold front we had this weekend is likely headed your way.

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Nope!

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[dlague]

Nope!

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you are right http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Wx...oomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055

the cold air dropping in from Canada in the west is doing just that and the jet stream is then pushing the cooler air back up into Canada over Ontario - looks like the warmth in the Northeast is attributed to all of the Caribbean weather and the Gulf.

http://people.com/human-interest/fall-2017-hot-meteorologists-predict/ this is not good for Killington - but who knows they always pull things off!

However it is coming according to Open Snow

 

[mriceyman]

Can we get open snow banned from any talk about weather


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[ss20]

Both the GFS and the Euro have been showing a decent cold snap next weekend. Cold enough to blow out the mice, perhaps.
NOAA doesn't buy it on their 8-14 day temperature probability outlook. But hey, it's something...

Spetember/October is pretty much the only time I look out 200+ hours...

 

[dlague]

Can we get open snow banned from any talk about weather


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Why I think they do a decent job at least for the Rockies!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Looks like it's going to be unseasonably warm until the very end of September or very beginning of October.

Blame Jose & Maria.

 

[Cornhead]

Blame Jose & Maria.

You know Trump does.[emoji12]


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