billski
Active member
There is clearly some variability in these forecasts. There is a very balanced narrative on
http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2013/02/blizzard_watch_coastal_flood_w.html
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There is still conflicting information on the exact track of the storm. A wobble closer or further to the coast would ultimately change accumulations by big numbers, but it's still going to be a big storm.
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he reason the estimated accumulations have such a large range,are that in these very intense storms thundersnow or banding can rapidly add 8-12 inches of snow to an area in just a few hours. Today, some of the computer models will start to indicate if the storm will produce thundersnow or heavy banding (which has extreme snowfall rates) and that will allow me to be even more specific with the final amounts.
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For the storm Friday night to become historic a lot has to happen. Every key ingredient in the atmosphere must come together in just the right way. Snowfall rates will need to approach 3 inches per hour at least for a few hours. If, for example, it snows at 1 inch per hour from midnight until 5 AM that is going to give us 5 inches of snow, but imagine getting 3 inches per hour during that time, now you just added 15 inches to your total. For Boston and other towns to see final amounts over 18 inches we need to have some incredibly intense snowfall rates for at least part of the storm
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This is the hard part of forecasting and conveying what the storm will be like before it occurs. Everyone has a different opinion on what makes a bad storm"
This won't stop me from being obsessively optimistic.
http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2013/02/blizzard_watch_coastal_flood_w.html
"
...
There is still conflicting information on the exact track of the storm. A wobble closer or further to the coast would ultimately change accumulations by big numbers, but it's still going to be a big storm.
...
he reason the estimated accumulations have such a large range,are that in these very intense storms thundersnow or banding can rapidly add 8-12 inches of snow to an area in just a few hours. Today, some of the computer models will start to indicate if the storm will produce thundersnow or heavy banding (which has extreme snowfall rates) and that will allow me to be even more specific with the final amounts.
...
For the storm Friday night to become historic a lot has to happen. Every key ingredient in the atmosphere must come together in just the right way. Snowfall rates will need to approach 3 inches per hour at least for a few hours. If, for example, it snows at 1 inch per hour from midnight until 5 AM that is going to give us 5 inches of snow, but imagine getting 3 inches per hour during that time, now you just added 15 inches to your total. For Boston and other towns to see final amounts over 18 inches we need to have some incredibly intense snowfall rates for at least part of the storm
...
This is the hard part of forecasting and conveying what the storm will be like before it occurs. Everyone has a different opinion on what makes a bad storm"
This won't stop me from being obsessively optimistic.
