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i am very hopeful!
any hope?
the 00z run last night took a huge shift north.
For where?
Right now, every model has it hitting NC and VA and going out to sea. MAYBE a bit of snow gets to South Jersey.
But there's a lot of time left and the energy hasnt even made landfall yet, so I imagine some big changes could still occur and it could come north. But could the models all be so wrong that it turns into a New England blizzard? Highly doubtful, but we can hope. I'd be happy if it came north enough to put 7 or 8 inches in northern New Jersey, but even that looks pretty doubtful at this point.
i really don't know much about the weather tech stuff but when i read something I like i just choose to believe it.
It did come north, but it's still a southern storm.
The 00z GFS just came out and came a bit north again, but the jackpot zone is now slated to be northern VA instead of southern VA.
Will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro is a bit further north of the GFS since its been leading the way lately, but given the model consistency it would take a simply massive jump to get the bullseye area to any ski resorts now, except possibly the Poconos (and the Poconos ALWAYS get screwed, so we know that aint happening!).
Its all about the trend. If its this far out and the trend is north, then there's a chance.
For us in NJ? Maybe. But this storm is really not that far out anymore, it would take all the models being about as wrong as humanly possible for this to be a ski country storm now. Granted the models have been trash most of last winter and this winter, but I think it would really be pushing it for them to be this wrong only a few days out.
I think you have to pin your hopes on the block to the north not being as strong as all the models think, or not being in the exact place it's currently in. If that somehow goes away, then the storm could come up.
FWIW, Henry Magurity from Accuweather put up a map with the possibility of a foot for most of eastern PA and western NJ.
Is there any commentary along with the map? There's really nothing to support that in any of the models, so I'd like to know his reasoning. That's one of the best ways to learn, IMO, is to listen to two experts with differing opinions, and then try to understand why they're so different.
You're right. I'm just talking about the Poconos and maybe Catskills.
FWIW, Henry Magurity from Accuweather put up a map with the possibility of a foot for most of eastern PA and western NJ.
Honestly henry is an awful forecaster. He Wants big storms to happen so bad that he screws up forecasts bigtime.