Any chance for early November?

[Greg]

Okay weather geeks - give us common folk the scoop. What do the next 2 or 3 weeks look like? I normally don't buy into any forecasts beyond 3 days, but shoot, we need something to chew on here. November is only 2 weeks away!!! What are the chances of an early November opening for lift-serviced?

Pray for COLD!!!

 

[WWF-VT]

 

[shwilly]

Well, NOAA is predicting lower than normal temperatures for the next two weeks in the Northeast.

Climate Prediction Center

I predict / hope K will make snow aggressively and open the weekend of the 4th, and the season will be on. Just 3 weekends away!

 

[loafer89]

Based on the Accuweather 15 day forecast, I would say that early November skiing looks promising. If Killington does not make snow in late October, Okemo or Sugarbush might with summit area skiing by early November.

I have skied at Okemo many times in the early season and the Buckhorn, Countdown to Upper World Cup is okay, but the shuttle bus to the Northstar Express and the downloading involved are a pain in the @ss.

 

[Zand]

I definitely think a few areas can open up by the November 4th weekend by the looks of the temps. Hell, if someone goes totally nuts next week maybe they can get it going next weekend. Starting next Tuesday, temps will be great at night for snowmaking in Northern NE and things aren't really supposed to warm up anytime soon after that.

 

[riverc0il]

i do not think we will see any areas open before thursday november 9th regardless of the next few weeks unless we see a (highly unlikely) repeat of last year.

 

[maplevalleymaster]

How do they download at Okemo? What lift do they use?

 

[Joshua]

The end of the month looks coldER and wet, which is good, but how cold and does it stay cold? Those are almost impossible details this far out. There is a lot of chatter on weather boards about the end of the month and how stormy it looks. I think there is a great possibility there will be top to bottom skiing by the 11th of November.

 

[thebigo]

For what its worth mulitple different sources at kzone have repoted that mtn ops budgeted opening day is sunday 11/5. The published day is 11/11.

Personally my guess for kmart would be either 11/9 or 11/10.

 

[Joshua]

i heard the same thing about Killington, but i think they are always "prepared" to open early, like they did last year, even if its for a weekend.

 

[andyzee]

My starting dates, all lift serviced:

10/26/2002 - Killington
11/15/2003 - Killington
11/13/2004 - Killington
10/29/2005 - Killington

Of those, only 10/29/2005 was the opening day, the other years they opened during the week.

 

[loafer89]

How do they download at Okemo? What lift do they use?

They upload and download on the Northstar Express and use a bus to take you to the base of the lift.

 

[thetrailboss]

So far so good...cold temps and some frost/snow up high. I have not been as excited as years past...though the ASC Pass was just purchased today, so I am ready. Been too busy.

 

[Zand]

Here's the scoop on the next two weeks. Obviously this can all change, but the patterns seem to be going this way.

Tomorrow a strong cold front will blast through bringing heavy rain and strong winds through the region. Behind this front, highs in the mountains will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows will be around 30, so not quite enough for snowmaking. Highs in the SNE hills will be in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

Monday, a very strong arctic cold front will come through. After some Sunday night rain, temps will come way down. Next Tuesday through Friday, highs in the mountains will be in the mid 30s to low 40s with lows ranging from the lower to upper 20s. In the SNE hills, highs will be in the 40s and lows in the low 30s. Some areas up in the mountains could start snowmaking.

Sometime around next weekend, a large frontal system will come through. There should be one day when the temps will blast into the 60s for a few hours with rain, but behind that system (shouldn't even take a day), it should get even colder than next week will be.

That's about as much as I can do for now. No big snow is forecasted during next week's cold stretch, but there could be isolated snow or rain showers popping in the whole week.

 

[SnowRider]

Here's the scoop on the next two weeks. Obviously this can all change, but the patterns seem to be going this way.

Tomorrow a strong cold front will blast through bringing heavy rain and strong winds through the region. Behind this front, highs in the mountains will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows will be around 30, so not quite enough for snowmaking. Highs in the SNE hills will be in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

Monday, a very strong arctic cold front will come through. After some Sunday night rain, temps will come way down. Next Tuesday through Friday, highs in the mountains will be in the mid 30s to low 40s with lows ranging from the lower to upper 20s. In the SNE hills, highs will be in the 40s and lows in the low 30s. Some areas up in the mountains could start snowmaking.

Sometime around next weekend, a large frontal system will come through. There should be one day when the temps will blast into the 60s for a few hours with rain, but behind that system (shouldn't even take a day), it should get even colder than next week will be.

That's about as much as I can do for now. No big snow is forecasted during next week's cold stretch, but there could be isolated snow or rain showers popping in the whole week.

Ill take that....

Will it be cold enough for Mt. Dozer to comence snowmaking?

SnowRider

 

[Zand]

Mount Dozer is so big, it's cold enough at the summit to make snow in September. It'll be in the single digits next week with wind chills below -20 next week.

 

[Greg]

I'm digging the optimism in this thread. Glad I started it!

 

[loafer89]

Burlington forecast discussion:

[FONT=Courier New, Courier, mono]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT319 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...COMPLICATED FCST PICTURE NXT 24-36 HRS WITH STEADY RAIN DVLPG ERLYTNGT...WITH THE RAIN HVY AT TIMES FRIDAY WITH SOME RIVERSAPPROACHING BANKFULL FRIDAY EVE. SOME MINOR FIELD FLOODING NOT OUTOF THE QUESTION. THEN SOME SNOW WL FALL LATE FRI/FRI NGT IN THEADIRONDACKS.DEEPENING SHRTWV DIGS THRU MO VLY RGN THIS EVE WITH DVLPNG SFC LOOVR THE MID APPALACNS ERLY TNGT. THIS SFC LO TRACKS NE INTO ERN PABY FRI MRNG...THEN ACRS ERN NEW ENG FRI EVE AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICKLATE FRI NGT. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYS WL RESULT IN COOLING ACRSADIRONDACKS AND WL TRY TO INDC 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW THAT AREALATE FRI INTO FRI NGT.OTRW EXPC STDY RN TO DVLP ACRS AREA ERLY TNGT AND BE HEAVY AT TIMESTHRU FRI. PCPN MXS WITH WET SNW LATE FRI AFTN ACRS ADIRONDACKS THENALL SNOW ADIRONDACKS ERLY FRI NGT WITH AN INCH OR 2 OF WET SNOW.OTRW RN TAPERS OFF TO SHWRS FRI NGT.DURG SAT SFC HI MOVS OFF MIDATLC CST WITH SFC LO MOVG THRU CANADIANMARITIMES. WILL BE DRY SAT INTO ERLY SUN...THEN CHC SHWRS SPCLY SUNAFTN AS NXT SYS MOVS INTO ERN GRTLKS LATE SUN AND SUN NGT.&&.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...OVERALL ABOVE AVERAGE FCSTER CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...WITHEVOLUTION OF DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WLSUPPORT BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX. LATEST ENSEMBLES DATA ANDLATEST 12Z GFS RUN STILL SUPPORTS INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKING FROMMIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY.MEANWHILE...STRONG 5H VORT ENERGY COMBINED WITH 25H JET WL HELP TOENHANCE COAST LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z MONDAY. THISSFC LOW WL HELP TO DEEPEN MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUSAND ADVECT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER OUR FA. THIS COLD CORE SYSTEM WLHAVE SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS...COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND WRAPAROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY THRUWEDS. WL KEEP MENTION OF CHC POPS IN ZNS ATTM AND MENTION SNOW ABOVE1500FT DURING THE DAYTIME AND DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR AT NIGHTGIVEN THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...ESPECIALLYWITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT (-32C AT 5HPA AND -7C AT 85HPA). SETUPLOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERNSLOPES LATE MONDAY THRU WEDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL ABOVE 1500 FEET. THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30SSLK ON TUES AND MID 40S BTV WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDS INTOTHURS. MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS SHOULDSLOWLY LIFT NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE WEDS INTO THURSWITH SOME DRYING AND WARMING EXPECTED.&&.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)PLENTY OF SHORT TERM AVIATION CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH TAF SITESACRS OUR CWA THRU THE NEXT 12 TO 24HRS. FIRST...THE TIMING OF RAINTHIS EVENING AND ASSOCIATED LWRING OF THE CIGS...FOLLOWED BY BRIEFBREAK BTWN 03-07Z...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHTINTO FRIDAY. WL USE CRNT RADAR TRENDS FOR FIRST 12HRS OF TAFFCST...WHICH SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH SEVERALLIGHTNING STRIKES FROM EASTERN LK ONTARIO BACK INTO WESTERN NY/PAATTM. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WL CONT TO INCREASE IN AREALCOVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTN/EVENING AS 85/7H FGEN FORCING ISENHANCED AND STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS FROM SWTO NE ACRS OUR TAF SITES. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL SUGGEST RAINDEVELOPING AT MSS BY 20Z...SLK BY 21Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 22Z THISEVENING. HOWEVER...INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WL LAST FOR 4 TO 6 HRSBEFORE A BRIEF BREAK DEVELOPS AS SFC LOW PRES STRENGHTENS ALONG THEFRNT ACRS OVER SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG25H JET AND POTENT S/W ENERGY PER LATEST WV TRENDS OVER THE MIDWESTWL PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACRS OUR TAF SITES ONFRIDAY. THE 850-700MB FG FORCING AND 7H OMEGA FIELDS SHOW VERYSTRONG LIFT ACRS OUR CWA AFT 14Z FRIDAY AS SYSTEM QUICKLYINTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WL MENTION RADEVELOPING IN TAFS AFT 12Z FROM MSS TO SLK...THEN AFT 14Z FOR BTVAND MSS WITH CIGS LWRING BLW 1500 FEET.&&.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 INCH RAFL EXPECTED TNGT THRU FRI NGT.HIGHEST PCPN AMTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ERN HALF OF VT AS MOIST WRAPSARND SFC LO LATE FRI/FRI NGT.THIS SHOULD BE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS NEEDED TO CAUSE WIDESPREADFLOODING...HOWEVER SOME RIVERS WL APPROACH BANKFULL IN AREAS.ESPECIALLY THE WINOOSKI/LAMOILLE/MISSISQUOI AND AUSABLE RIVERS AND AFEW OF THEIR TRIBUTARIES.ALSO BE ALERT TO LOCALIZED FIELD FLOODING AS WELL AS ANY POORDRAINAGE AREAS DUE TO CLOGGED LEAVES.&&.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...VT...NONE.NY...NONE.$$SHORT TERM...SFHLONG TERM...TABERAVIATION...TABER[/FONT]

 

[SnowRider]

SETUPLOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERNSLOPES LATE MONDAY THRU WEDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL ABOVE 1500 FEET.

I'm packing my bags :wink:

SnowRider
"When hell freezes over i'll snowboard there to"

 

[Vortex]

The best I could find was some snow next weekend in the whites.

Friday, Oct 27s
Cloudy with rain possibleLow: 31 °FHigh: 52 °F
Saturday, Oct 28
Warmer with rainLow: 39 °FHigh: 66 °F
Sunday, Oct 29
Snow and rain in the morningLow: 22 °FHigh: 45 °F


http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecas...er&traveler=0&zipChg=1&zipcode=03251&metric=0