Arctic outbreak next week?

[loafer89]

The latest NWS forecast discussions are mentioning a change in the weather pattern around the middle of next week with to a jet stream flow with Arctic origins that may last through January.

 

[Greg]

I sure hope so. I've been trying to remain positive. Part of the reason I was able to do so is because I've been still getting out, even if only at night at the local haunt. They're closed currently and I seriously doubt they'll be able to reopen tomorrow, especially after today's rain. I'm now seeing more rain forecasted for the weekend. I'm quickly joining the skiing-depressed...

 

[hammer]

Hope springs eternal...

Was out yesterday...managed to have fun despite the spotty conditions, but I can't see going out again until there's a lot more snow (natural or manmade).

 

[loafer89]

I sure hope so. I've been trying to remain positive. Part of the reason I was able to do so is because I've been still getting out, even if only at night at the local haunt. They're closed currently and I seriously doubt they'll be able to reopen tomorrow, especially after today's rain. I'm now seeing more rain forecasted for the weekend. I'm quickly joining the skiing-depressed...

I hope this picture from Sunday River helps your depression:

4-5" of new snow and dumping hard!!!!!!!! While it probably is changing to rain, or will soon, at least they are getting snow, as is Sugarloaf.

 

[Greg]

I hope this picture from Sunday River helps your depression:

4-5" of new snow and dumping hard!!!!!!!! While it probably is changing to rain, or will soon, at least they are getting snow, as is Sugarloaf.

Nice. Some base-building snow. At least the precip this coming weekend also has a chance at staying frozen up in Northern NE. Time to set the sights northbound...

 

[loafer89]

I am trying to convince my friend to take a day trip to Sunday River on sunday, but he wants to ski at Okemo. The weather this weekend will hinge on where the arctic front stalls out over New England and who is on the warm or cold side.

 

[loafer89]

This is the first time in a LONG, LONG time that I have seen a NOAA forecast model so lovely looking:

 

[2knees]

This is the first time in a LONG, LONG time that I have seen a NOAA forecast model so lovely looking:

agreed. I stopped reading them until i saw your post.

OF NOTE...PAST FEW DAYS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS INDICATE A STRONG TENDENCY
FOR A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BEYOND
DAY 7. THE AO...WHICH HAS BEEN SO ANOMALOUSLY POSITIVE SO FAR THIS
WINTER...TO LIKELY TREND SHARPLY NEGATIVE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
INDEED...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LONGER TERM OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN CORE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
BREAKING OFF AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND CROSS POLAR FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THUS A MARKED TREND TOWARDS
MUCH COLDER WX IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY DAY 8 AND BEYOND.

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

hope so,,,,,heading up to Smuggs on the 19th for 5 days....pray pray pray!!!!

 

[gores95]

Nice radar indeed if you ski in ME!!!

 

[ALLSKIING]

Man.....I hope so!!! I can't even look at the web cams anymore. This thing better turn around quick, my wife is starting to talk about a tropical vacations since she is not skiing much:blink:

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

Farmers Almanac is a bit promising...."8th-11th. Fair skies. 12th-15th. Stormy, then fair, colder weather. 16th-19th. Showers Mid-Atlantic. Light snows Northeast. 20th-23rd. Clear to partly cloudy and cold. 24th-27th. A series of storms move in from southwest, bringing snow. 28th-31st. Showery, especially Mid-Atlantic"

 

[ajl50]

Honestly- I don't buy this pattern change talk. It's just not in the cards this winter. I see a cold shot- Maybe 1 -2 degrees below average at the most and then a moderation of the temperature. Nothing long term and persistant. Not sure about the storms but I wouldn't expect much snow...it's not that kind of winter. It's a warm winter.

 

[JimG.]

Good lord will you folks never learn?

Time to give the weather discussions a rest.

 

[Paul]

They've been saying this since Nov. 1st.

What's that old adage?

Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me....... won't get fooled again.

 

[2knees]

Good lord will you folks never learn?

Time to give the weather discussions a rest.

Jim, its all i have left!!!! Let me wallow in my misery.

 

[AdironRider]

Seriously. Just shut up about the weather and itll probably change at this rate.

 

[Greg]

Good lord will you folks never learn?

Time to give the weather discussions a rest.

Seriously. Just shut up about the weather and itll probably change at this rate.

I'm not supersticious. The weather's gonna do what the weather's gonna do. Talking about these chances of a cool-down at least make me feel better about these sad state of affairs. Trust me; I'd much rather be talking about all the good skiing there is out there, but.....well.......you know... :roll:

 

[loafer89]

The difference is that NOAA never predicted any cold shot of merit like accuweather constantly was. Actually NOAA was right on the money with the forecast for above normal temperatures since November.

I put good faith in the people of the NWS, lets see what happens next week.

 

[Greg]

The difference is that NOAA never predicted any cold shot of merit like accuweather constantly was. Actually NOAA was right on the money with the forecast for above normal temperatures since November.

I put good faith in the people of the NWS, lets see what happens next week.

I have to give you some props, loafer. The observations you've posted based on NWS forecasts and data have been pretty much right on this season. I've started using NWS forecasts almost exclusively. Remember folks - we link to NWS on each ski area profile. These are based on zip code, but from there you can click around on the map to grab specific elevation forecasts.