Arctic outbreak next week?

[loafer89]

Albany, N.Y forecast discussion:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
TIMING OF TRANSITIONS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES
IN GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
SETS UP IN EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL IN TURN DETERMINE WHERE
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS THE PATH THE
SURFACE WAVES WILL TAKE...AND THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE ICING
POTENTIAL NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...MIXED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ON SUNDAY AT ABOUT THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
BERKSHIRES ON SOUTH...BUT STAY TUNED...THIS POSITION OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. IF WE END UP
WITH A WARMER RAINIER SCENARIO...COULD BE SOME FLOOD
POTENTIAL...WITH THE SNOW PACK IN THE ADIRONDACKS THAT WOULD MELT.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...OR LATER DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
EXIT...WHICH ALSO HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE.

BEYOND MONDAY...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL
AS OVERALL UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
WINTERY IN THE EASTERN U.S.

 

[loafer89]

Nice looking long range model, I'll take normal temperatures over New England:

 

[from_the_NEK]

Nice looking long range model, I'll take normal temperatures over New England:

Hopefully "Normal" also means

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Hopefully "Normal" also means

I'll just be happy with "Normal" at least they'll have the capability to make some
but nothing beats Ma Nature's home grown goodness..

 

[tcharron]

I've had an epiphany!

We ARE seeing arctic weather!

And FYI..

THE CAPS ARE MELTING!

 

[trycash2]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/pressroom.asp?pr=wx_258.htm

WINTER TO COME "WITH A VENGEANCE"
Prolonged Period of Cold and Stormy Weather Appears on the Way

(State College, PA - January 8, 2007) - The unseasonably warm winter experienced by much of the country is likely to "turn on a dime," in the words of AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi.

Bastardi said that the weather pattern from mid-January through mid-February has a chance to mimic the winters of 1965-66 and 1957-58, each of which ended cold and stormy after a warm start. A worst-case scenario would be if this winter plays out as did the winter of 1977-1978.

Similar to this year, 1977-1978 was a winter with a waning El Nino. After a tepid start, the second half of the winter was noted for its cold and remarkable storminess, including back-to-back-to-back blizzards in the Northeast.

"Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock," said Bastardi. "Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

Added Bastardi, "Whether we end up with seasonably cold weather, or something far worse, remains to be seen. There are indications that this winter could parallel severe winters of the past. Even should we not see an extremely cold and snowy conclusion to winter, you can be sure that by the end of the month, when those in the Northeast are shoveling out their driveways and sidewalks, the mild weather we're experiencing now will be a distant memory."

Where Will Winter Go From Here?
The first signs of change will be noticed this week. A passing shot of cold air will knock temperatures down to typical January levels in the northeastern part of the country for a few days. Temperatures will return to unseasonably warm levels by the latter part of week and last into early next week. The seeds for the more-lasting change, however, will be planted in the western part of the country.

Arctic air from western Canada will pour southward into the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains this week, and this will mark the beginning of a true winter weather pattern that will encompass much of the nation over the next couple of weeks. The core of the coldest air by the latter part of the week will be centered in the Rockies and northern Plains, and the arrival of the cold air will mean another round of accumulating snow for Denver later this week.

The cold air will slowly push southward and eastward from this weekend into early next week and will likely arrive in the eastern part of the country by the middle of next week. Much of the nation will then have a cold weather pattern for the second half of the month.

Long-range forecasting expert Bastardi points out that it's too early to say with certainty that the change in the weather pattern will be long-lasting or produce heavy amounts of snow. However, he believes that if the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the dramatic change from warmth to cold could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."

 

[from_the_NEK]

Similar to this year, 1977-1978 was a winter with a waning El Nino. After a tepid start, the second half of the winter was noted for its cold and remarkable storminess, including back-to-back-to-back blizzards in the Northeast.

Would be nice to have back to back blizzards. However, the snow depths on Mt. Mansfield indicate that these winters are FAR from comparible.
http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php3

1977-78 had a great long season of DEEP snow. This year if we do get deep snow it is not going to be nearly as long lived.

 

[Justin10]

This is looking REALLY good for late weekend into early next week up in Franconia....

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?CityName=Franconia&state=NH&site=GYX

Im sure up at the actual mountain it will be colder, and probably all snow......also, take a look at wednesday next wednesday (the 17th).

:beer:

 

[Greg]

This is looking REALLY good for late weekend into early next week up in Franconia....

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?CityName=Franconia&state=NH&site=GYX

Im sure up at the actual mountain it will be colder, and probably all snow......also, take a look at wednesday next wednesday (the 17th).

:beer:

Here's a better one for you, adjusted for elevation a bit:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.625417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=135&map.y=121

 

[Justin10]

Awesome, even better!!

 

[Justin10]

Just saw this, from Gray ME forecast discussion


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF A
COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR MONDAY. GFS IS
COLDER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS MOST
AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
OF THE YEAR ON MONDAY IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. FOR NOW DIDN'T
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO DAYS 4-7 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND IN THE STORMS WAKE.

Looks like we're gonna do it in style......

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Here's a better one for you, adjusted for elevation a bit:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.625417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=135&map.y=121

This is great news. I have next wed off as a ski day!! Woo Hoo! It looks like wint... ok, not going to jinx it.. Just glad to have normal temps sticking around for more than 24 hours!