Christmas Week Weather

[drjeff]

Latest runs in - and this storm is looking interesting too say the least. Have had now multiple models runs suggesting a BIG storm for the mid-atlantic (some folks are even starting to compare the potential of this one to the March 1993 storm that just pummled the East Coast!) What the last couple of model runs have shown though, that isn't the greatest news for most New England Ski Areas, is that this storm could very well be in ideal position with LOTS of strength offshore to produce BIG snows up until about Atlantic City, then the models suggest that the low wants to almost go due East for a while before turning back to the North/Northeast out East of Nantucket. That would keep the potential HEAVY snow accumulations more to Southern New England and lighter accumulations to the mountains of central/northern New England.

*If* this scenario pans out, we could easily be looking at FEET of snow along the I-95 corridor from VA to Boston, with what could be a quick fall off in snowfall amounts to the North and West of that corridor of I-95 - some of the estimates based on potential melted liquid amounts and like snowfall ratios could see say NYC and Boston with about 2 feet and maybe only 6" in Albany and a foot in Portland, Maine. Storm speed wise, this is looking like a Monday into Tuesday event for the New England.

 

[from_the_NEK]

I can only speak for the Pocono region where we have had little more then a dusting this season but the conditions right now are great. Not only have they been pouring it on and building a mega base but the quality of snow they are shooting is wonderful. If we are to get any natural it will only make it better and on the down side bring out the hordes.

Still not a knee+ deep powder day...

we could easily be looking at FEET of snow along the I-95 corridor from VA to Boston, with what could be a quick fall off in snowfall amounts to the North and West of that corridor of I-95

Last year all over again. uke: Huge snows in the flatlands where they don't need it, and my shovel is still in the attic :roll:. I don't know if I can go 2 full years without a legit faceshot. Watch things turn around when I'm in Mexico for a week later this winter and that is the only major storm that decides it is going to push the blocker out of the way and score a touchdown in Northern NE. Sounds just like my fantasy Football team this year, "Too Little, Too late".

 

[skiberg]

check out www.accuweather.com. Good analysis of the storm. They say some of the same but also suggest that the storm could come right up the coast and pummel interior NE. In any event it looks good for me, my house in in Northern NH. We are probably going to see some snow either way. Keep in mind that we have had about 2 feet in the past ten or so days.

 

[mlctvt]

check out www.accuweather.com. Good analysis of the storm. They say some of the same but also suggest that the storm could come right up the coast and pummel interior NE. In any event it looks good for me, my house in in Northern NH. We are probably going to see some snow either way. Keep in mind that we have had about 2 feet in the past ten or so days.

Accuweather's update a few minutes ago now says the storm is trending more south. Possible sizable snow for southern areas that never get it. Sux .. Hopefully next update it trends back north.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Accuweather's update a few minutes ago now says the storm is trending more south. Possible sizable snow for southern areas that have been getting consistently slammed with obscene amounts of snow starting with several storms last winter and all they do is complain about it. Sux .. Hopefully next update it trends back north.

Fixxed it for ya

People in the hills of North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia can barely comprehend what to do with the snow.

Meanwhile, in the NEK, people's snowshoes are hard to find amongst the cobwebs and plow the guys are going broke.

 

[skiberg]

Read the whole update. After is goes south it either comes up the coast and kills us, or goes out to sea and then wraps back around like the last few storms.

 

[drjeff]

Read the whole update. After is goes south it either comes up the coast and kills us, or goes out to sea and then wraps back around like the last few storms.

As of now, the biggest things that are different about the models this time last week verses for this coming event is that 1) the models are more in consensus with a much tighter series of storm tracks between the furthest West and the furthest East 2) The models also now have had a series of runs (4 or 5 modeling cycles) showing similar tracks (last week we had 1 or 2 model runs that showed a mega snow track and then poof! gone) 3) this storm in the models looks to be much more of a coast hugger (atleast from GA/SC upto Atlantic City or so) before you start to see much deviation in the tracks with a shift to the East vs. still coast hugging.

 

[skiberg]

Are you in agreement that it looks like much better that NE will be gettign some snow out of this. Also, if it does miss, do you think we have the chance of the wrap around type snow we have been getting across northern NH?

 

[from_the_NEK]

Are you in agreement that it looks like much better that NE will be gettign some snow out of this. Also, if it does miss, do you think we have the chance of the wrap around type snow we have been getting across northern NH?

From what I'm seeing,no and no.

 

[drjeff]

Are you in agreement that it looks like much better that NE will be gettign some snow out of this. Also, if it does miss, do you think we have the chance of the wrap around type snow we have been getting across northern NH?

From what I'm seeing,no and no.

Compared to this time last week, the storm is modeled more consistently to come further up the coast, so that's much better for New England than the last one. Also wrap around wise, once the storm passes, all indications are that there's going to be some backside winds that should kick in and start producing. *If* the models are correct with respect to both winds and shear size of the storm, it's could get close to, if not all the way to a strength and barometric pressure that one usually sees in a Cat 1 hurricane - once again we're talking 5 days out, so lots can change, as the anticipated track takes this storm across Southern California starting now, through AZ-NM-TX likely tracking near the Northern Gulf Coast before it's projected to take a sharp turn to the North somewhere around the Florida Panhandle and then track, just offshore up the East Coast - that's seems pretty likely modelwise now - it's the will it turn East or now that seems to be more of the question to be answered over the next few days

 

[riverc0il]

Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.

 

[wa-loaf]

Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.

Sounds like if it pans out Tuesday would be the day.

 

[polski]

Watch things turn around when I'm in Mexico for a week later this winter and that is the only major storm that decides it is going to push the blocker out of the way and score a touchdown in Northern NE.

At least you won't have to look at snow in Mexico. I was in Ireland earlier this month and saw beautiful snowfields atop their mountains (which top out at > 3,000'), while back home we'd had no snow at all yet (that big upslope blower event in the Greens happened while I was away). It is impossible to rent skis in Ireland, other than at two "dry hills" on golf courses with mats with some sort of lubrication misting system so they are "skiable" even with zero snow. Even though I knew there would be widespread snowfall while I was there - for, according to the locals, just the second time in a decade - it was a family trip and I knew there wouldn't be time for bc exploration to make it worth schlepping my sticks over.

 

[HowieT2]

this is sickening

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2010/post-492-0-88312800-1293065227.jpg

 

[riverc0il]

this is sickening

Gee wiz, don't jump off the bridge yet. We are off to a great start, trail counts and base depths are great for December considering we have yet to receive a region wide mountain dump yet, and it is currently snowing in the mountains with a few inches predicted over the course of the next 24 hours. I'm already planning my next powder day (third in a row) for Friday. Sure, the Monday event might be a coastal dump and miss the mountains. But the pattern we are in is great! The big one might not be here this weekend but it is only a matter of time.

 

[drjeff]

Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.

Flip a coin as of now Riv. This one as of now looks like it's going to be real close from being a major powder event vs. just a couple of inches of snow. Realistically still a good 48 hours or so before *some* degree of certainty on the call for New England can be made

 

[St. Bear]

This guy from Accuweather thinks the storm is going to skirt underneath the mountains of NE.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43380/euro-and-gfs-both-go-to-the-big-storm.asp

I'll take it down here. I've only seen snow once this year, which is odd even for NJ.

 

[wa-loaf]

I've got about 2-3 inches at my house, so at least it should be a white Christmas around here.

 

[WinnChill]

Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.

Snow aside, the winds may be a factor for wind holds, not to mention driving conditions if this thing really hugs the coast. Once this storm clears, the rest of the week looks quiet so maybe Friday wouldn't be such a bad idea.

 

[St. Bear]

Snow aside, the winds may be a factor for wind holds, not to mention driving conditions if this thing really hugs the coast. Once this storm clears, the rest of the week looks quiet so maybe Friday wouldn't be such a bad idea.

Score! For once.