Darn you, North Atlantic oscillation!

[legalskier]

Ok, so the Arctic oscillation died down, bringing cold temps and snow to much of the northern hemisphere. Except here, because the North American oscillation cranked up, keeping the cold air trapped up north.
Stupid oscillation. :angry:

*** For the Northeast it's one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record, with most of the region's temperatures the last couple months averaging 5 degrees warmer than normal, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. "I am disgusted that golfers are golfing on my cross-country ski course," said New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson, director of the Global Snow Lab....When the Arctic oscillation is in a positive phase, the winds spin fast in the Arctic keeping the cold north. But in the past few days, the Arctic oscillation turned negative, though not in its normal way, Halpert said. The cold jet stream dipped in Europe and Asia, but is still bottled up over North America.
That's because another weather phenomena, called the North Atlantic oscillation is playing oddball by staying positive and keeping the cold away from the rest of North America. About 90 percent of the time, the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations are in synch, Halpert said. But not this time, so much of the United States is escaping the winter's worst. ***
Full story: http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2012/02/wheres_the_snow_not_in_lower_4.html

From Global Snow Lab (daily snow as of 1-31-12):

 

[4aprice]

Northern New England can make out ok with a positive or neutral NAO. A positive PNA can also bring cold air into the Northeast.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[Abubob]

Its the negative NAO that causes storm to retrograde into land and mix Atlantic moisture with cold Canadian air. With NAO positive the storms just skip out to sea or if they're close enough to NE they tend to be fast movers that bring more rain than snow. Either way there's no back side snow for Jay.

 

[WinnChill]

Northern New England can make out ok with a positive or neutral NAO. A positive PNA can also bring cold air into the Northeast.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

True. The recent Halloween storm was technically +NAO....March 93 storm of the century was as well.

 

[BenedictGomez]

.March 93 storm of the century was as well.

There was another bizarre storm in the mid-90s I remember. Bizarre in that where I live in NJ we got 3 feet of snow, and that just NEVER happens in NJ. I remember putting on my downhill skis (Dynastar VR17s) and cross country skiing to friends houses.

 

[billski]

Farmer's almanac

Northeast U.S.
Long Range Weather Forecast for February 4th - April 3rd
Includes New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, Washington D.C

February 2012
4th-7th. Increasing clouds, cold.
8th-11th. Wet snow mixed with rain Mid-Atlantic north through New England; slushy accumulations of 4+" possible.
12th-15th. Light snow, then fair skies.
16th-19th. Unsettled.
20th-23rd. Heavy wet snow sweeps up through Mid-Atlantic across the rest of Northeast, 12+" possible; then fair, cold.
24th-29th. Spotty light snow/flurries; could turn steadier, heavier over eastern New England.

March 2012
1st-3rd. Light snow/flurries. Steadier, heavier snows along New England coast.
4th-7th. Stormy, with significant snow accumulations possible Mid-Atlantic region, then clearing.
8th-11th. Fair.
12th-15th. Light rain, especially Pennsylvania, New York, then fair.
16th-19th. Showers, heavy thunderstorms. Break out green umbrellas for St. Patrick's Day Parade in N.Y.C.
20th-23rd. Fair, pleasant.
24th-27th. Showery, windy, then fair.
28th-31st. Increasing clouds. Unsettled by the 31st.

April 2012
1st-3rd. Squally, then fair, cold.

Source

 

[ScottySkis]

Hope the forecast is correct.

 

[steamboat1]

I know nothing about osicillations, NAO's or PNA's.

I'd just like to see some regular light snow accumulations with some dumps in the mix.

 

[ScottySkis]

True. The recent Halloween storm was technically +NAO....March 93 storm of the century was as well.

That halloween storm dumped lots of snow at Platty, hurricane snow.

 

[ERJ-145CA]

There was another bizarre storm in the mid-90s I remember. Bizarre in that where I live in NJ we got 3 feet of snow, and that just NEVER happens in NJ. I remember putting on my downhill skis (Dynastar VR17s) and cross country skiing to friends houses.

That was January 1996, I was at college in Mahwah, NJ and there was close to 3 feet of snow. IIRC there were a few more snows after that too. I remember driving around and the snowbanks were higher than the car and the roads were sanded packed snow because they ran out of salt. Unfortunately I wasn't skiing at that time.

 

[WinnChill]

Ok, so the Arctic oscillation died down, bringing cold temps and snow to much of the northern hemisphere. Except here, because the North American oscillation cranked up, keeping the cold air trapped up north.
Stupid oscillation. :angry:QUOTE]

Minor note--technically it's the North Atlantic Oscillation. No biggie--just clarifying for those Googling more info on it, that's all. It gets confusing when you have the Pacific North American oscillation or PNA.

One of the keys to these indices is not just when they're in a favorable phase, but when they are shifting or changing to that phase. A pattern that snaps or shifts into a negative NAO or positive PNA stands a better chance of a storm occurring than if they were stagnant in those phases. It can happen when shifting out of those phases too but not as favorable.

 

[ScottySkis]

Any chance of this being a good thing for winter weather soon.

 

[ALLSKIING]

Any chance of this being a good thing for winter weather soon.

He hinted for some possible good things next week on his site...Fingers crossed!!

 

[2sons]

Hey Winn- completely off topic- we're up in the Stowe area Sunday thru Wednesday of next week. You've forcasted a high on Sunday of 0 degrees, NOAA says 14 and TWC a high of 22 degrees. NOAA says Monday is going to be warmer, 25 degrees whereas you say only a high of 3 degrees. Any idea as to which day is colder or warmer? Thanks.

 

[legalskier]

Minor note--technically it's the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Duly noted, thanks.

 

[WinnChill]

Any chance of this being a good thing for winter weather soon.

Storms might pick up a little late next week--still a track through us and not curling in from the south. Doesn't look like much help from the NAO or AO to make them monsters.

 

[WinnChill]

Hey Winn- completely off topic- we're up in the Stowe area Sunday thru Wednesday of next week. You've forcasted a high on Sunday of 0 degrees, NOAA says 14 and TWC a high of 22 degrees. NOAA says Monday is going to be warmer, 25 degrees whereas you say only a high of 3 degrees. Any idea as to which day is colder or warmer? Thanks.

Still working out the details on that--we have one front dropping through Friday night/Saturday AM, then a secondary one on Sunday. The passage of the front during the normal high temps times could throw everything off so you'll see some differing temps depending on that timing--plus we try to adjust slightly for elevation (midslope) NWS and others focus on lower areas. It's tough to nail down those details this far out but we suspect both days equally cold (cold Sunday PM and Monday AM) with a slight edge for Monday being the coldest as that secondary surge of arctic air settles in, not to mention windchills! We'll adjust accordingly as much as possible this week. Thanks for asking!

 

[ScottySkis]

Storms might pick up a little late next week--still a track through us and not curling in from the south. Doesn't look like much help from the NAO or AO to make them monsters.

Thank you Mr. Chill

 

[billski]

Any possibility of the BMF or the SOB influencing them?

 

[WinnChill]

Any possibility of the BMF or the SOB influencing them?

BYO NAO this season