Rebecca very reliable Facebook weather forecasters

[ScottySkis]

A look at this coming week into the first part of February.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/741305339318302/permalink/2750508975064585/
Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.

https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
This week is going to be generally cold, but the below average temperatures won’t be as sustained as they looked to be a week ago. That has caused the expected, cry, winter is over, another warm winter, and so on. I’ve been asked, “why keep posting on the medium and long range if what I said a week or more ago changes”? My answer is “that’s why I post on the longer range so much”. Patterns adjust and evolve. So, I try to keep you in the loop as to how the pattern is progressing. This post will get into the meteorology a bit….. Y’all can skip to the bottom if you want to see my final thought.

As I said, this week starts out cold, but we will see some warming for the second half heading into the weekend. The air temperature is going to be average to slightly above average……In other words fairly seasonal. So, it won’t be a torch by any stroke of the imagination. The week ahead, is looking basically benign with a possible storm this weekend.
I will try to post on the Euro Weeklies in the Weather Group sometime today; if not today then tomorrow. But on here we can talk a little about the American and Australian ideas of what’s ahead.

I called for the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) to go negative, but they haven’t. The ENSO isn’t looking quite the way I thought it would at this point. But we still do have the warm spot in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska). The reason for all of this has to do with the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). It was in the warm phase 6, this is helped in assisting the EPO and WPO to stay positive. With the positive phase we had warmth. We also have had this undercutting Pacific Jet (PJ). The PJ hasn’t been kind to our storm tracks, which has also helped contribute to how the winter has shaped up so far.

All the models do generally snow the next 30-40 days as being cold. The American CFSv2 (The Climate Forecast System Version 2), Australian BOMM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System) and the American GFS (Global Forecasting System) are showing overall cold, with the American GFS model the farthest east with the cold. The BOMM was higher into phase 8 last week. But it has since fallen off to a more weak phase 8. The Euro model is the farthest west. So, while they support the idea of cold, they each have it centered differently and various extents of the cold. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is an important player in the MJO. It was in a strong cold phase for last Fall heading into Early winter. Then it reversed to a warm phase signal. The last few days have seen it rebound a bit. Right now, it looks right around average, to slightly positive. This will limit the influence of the IOD for the rest of this winter and into spring. The reason the MJO has acted atypically this year, very well could be due to the expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. But that is a discussion for another time. The signals are mixed, so things could go either way at this point.

What the MJO does is going to be critical to how things evolve over the next several weeks. MJO phases eight through three are considered cold phases this time of year. When we look at the IOD the Indicators for cold in the Eastern CONUS signals are mixed. Many of the models are taking the MJO into the NULL phases, which means there is no/or little MJO influence on the pattern. We have seen cold winters that had the MJO going NULL, the most notable was 2015. If it enters the NULL, what phase it was before then is important. If we enter NULL from Phase 8 we have a better chance of seeing a lot of cold, as opposed to entering NULL from phase 6.

So, the bottom line is …. I’m sticking with my idea for overall cold for February. I do think the pattern will turn to more sustained cold…. but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way.

 

[ScottySkis]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/741305339318302/permalink/2750508975064585/
Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
Today is cold, my high temperature for today was 11. This week will be fairly non-eventful, as Canadian high pressure builds in.

Looking at satellite we can see the energy that will be moving onto the West Coast. This will progress across the CONUS this week; then possibility becoming an issue for us here in the Northeast. I’ve been talking about this possible storm for a few days now.

The last few days, several of y’all have been upset with the extent of the warmth coming in for the 2nd half of this week. I’ve been saying the temperatures will be close to seasonal, but not a torch. The models are backing off on the amount of warmth going into this weekend. If you want a snowstorm that is a good trend.

As for the weekend setup. We will have high pressure over Eastern Canada, as I said the other day, this looks to setup near Hudson Bay. If this indeed happens, there would be a tendency for cold air to filter down out of Canada ahead of the approaching storm. Again, a good thing if you want a snowstorm. (we could see a shortwave move out of Canada, just before the weekend event. The Arctic Oscillation is currently positive. So, there is a lack of upstream blocking. This would normally mean the storm would what to move into the Lakes. Now before y’all start to cringe. We do have another part of the puzzle that has a role to play. We’re going to have a storm off the Southeast Coast.Our approaching system will squeeze between the northern high and the southeast low. That low off the southeast, will allow the storm approaching from the west to tap the breaks, keeping it from turning too early into the Great Lakes. If you remember, I said the storm would try to go into the Great Lakes, but the energy would undoubtedly recurve south and east heading for the Mid Atlantic Coast. Right now, the models are supporting this idea, showing development off the Mid Atlantic Coast. With the cold air close by any coastal forming in that location, would have something to draw on. Once the coastal forms, it will move north and east; right now, the most likely track would be south of Long Island and Cape Cod. So, right now this could be an interior Northeast/northern Mid Atlantic snowstorm; this would keep the core of the snow, north and west of the major cities along the I-95 Corridor. But if the coastal low forms a little farther south, it could shift the snow axis south, bringing the Mid Atlantic and closer to the Coast into play.

I’ve been asked to show model runs once in a while. So, here is the GFS and Euro. Both show a similar idea on both the track and temperature profile. Temperatures will be a major key. But the overall setup isn’t all that bad. We will see how this trends over the next few days.

Yesterday, I posted on the cold outlook for the next few weeks. While not terrible; it’s not as cold as I thought it would be. But the pattern is going to remain very active. So we see.

Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.

 

[180]

She is pretty good, I follow on FB

 

[ScottySkis]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/741305339318302/permalink/2750508975064585/
Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/

The deep trough over the East Coast had Floridians shivering this morning. 30’s were all the way down to the Florida Straits.

Today is about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Tomorrow and Friday will be even warmer. Then changes start Friday afternoon lasting through Sunday.

A look at the next 7-10 days, including more on our weekend storm.

Looking at the 500mb anomaly chart. We can see the higher heights in Canada, but what we can’t see is the upper ridging in the Southeast CONUS. But there isn’t a persistent flow of cold air coming out of Northwest North America either. So generally, temperatures look to stay around average. There is also this undercutting Jet. This is going to keep the pattern extremely active for the next few weeks. These are weekly anomalies, so there will be some moderately warmer than average, and days that are relatively below average. But like I’ve been saying the Southeast Ridge would be relaxing. The models support that idea. With average temperatures and an active pattern, more snow is likely as we move forward into the first part of February.

This weekend

The high pressure over us will move away, allowing the storm from the west to approach. The primary low still looks to move toward the Ohio Valley then there looks to be a transfer south and east, with a secondary low forming near the Delmarva. Later Friday night into Sunday the secondary will become the main storm. The storm will bring rain to southwestern Pennsylvania Friday late morning/ early afternoon. The rain will stick around for most of Friday, then a change over to a mix/snow is likely later Friday night and Saturday. This will progress north and east through Saturday into the first part of Sunday. Then on Sunday a northwest flow will usher in colder and very windy conditions.

The storms main impact will be felt Friday night into Sunday morning for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The storm last weekend was a fast mover, this one will not be. Most of us will see conditions improve Sunday, but snow could linger for Maine into Monday morning.

Along the Coast and the major cities of the I-95 Corridor (not sure about Boston) it is still looking like a predominantly rain/mix event, with most likely a bit of snow on the back side. The same can be said for for lower elevational areas of Northwest New Jersey, and coastal and southernmost Maine for Sunday. Those in the interior areas have a good chance for snow. Those with the best chance of seeing 4+ inches will be across Northeast Pennsylvania, back toward State College, then heading into Northwest Pennsylvania, most of New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those higher elevations will fair the best; with higher elevations Like the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks back into the Tug Hill, Greens into the Berkshires and Whites seeing several inches of snow.

 

[ScottySkis]

Our storm is pushing away from the Lakes into Canada. So the Northeast will see things calm down. The same general pattern we’ve been in for the last 3 weeks continues. Away from the Great Lakes, it will be a fairly tranquil week, until we approach the weekend.

We are about to enter February; for those south of Northern New England and northern New York State, winter has been lack luster. These same areas, going forward could end up with the same general idea of little or no accumulating snowstorms. I still think we will see another cold outbreak during the first part of February. But at this point, I have to ask myself, will areas near the I-95 and closer to the coast see a lot of accumulation snowfall for the rest of this winter? It is possible, but time might not be on their side.

This week we will see low pressure drop out of the Rockies that will move into the Gulf States. From here, the track is tricky. The other day I talked about the upper level jet pattern.

Here is a look at the GFS showing its Idea for the Jet pattern. The question is still there, will we see a phase between the northern and southern jet. Between a possible phase, timing, and extent of cold air. Will be the deciding factors on P-type and who sees what, from the low pressure that move up the East Coast next weekend. Could it be the Miller A storm that some of y’all have wanted? Maybe. The models are going back and forth. The odds look to be 50/50 for a weekend snowstorm. But right now, I don’t see this becoming a major deal due to upper air dynamics and available cold air. We will see!

Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather

 

[ScottySkis]

Getting better let's not jinx anything

"Today we have a very weak disturbance moving overhead, which is kicking off precipitation here and there. We also have a bit of lake effect going on downwind of the Great Lakes.

Temperatures will slowly drop each day until Friday, then temperatures will start to climb. But all in all, this will be a fairly quiet and dry workweek, with moderately cold temperatures (not a torch, just close to seasonal)

As we get into the 2nd half of this week. We will see low pressure drop south and east out of the Rockies; there will be a piece of energy in a shortwave in the northern stream dropping into the upper Plains. As the southern low develops along the Gulf, it remains to be seen if we will see the streams phase (interact) or if the northern energy keeps the southern low to the south with no phase between the two. If the southern low is suppressed to the south, it will just end up going out to sea. But if it phases it will come up the East Coast, and possibly develop into a Miller A nor’easter. A Miller A consist of just one primary low that moves out of the gulf then move up Coast as it develops, typically it moves east of New Jersey and south of Long Island. A Miller B is a complex storm that has an inland primary that transfers to the coast, were a second storm will develop and become the primary. Temperatures over the weekend, will be marginal at best. Without a deep cold pool, figuring out snow/rain will be difficult.

If you want to know more about types of storms that impact the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Here is a blog post I did awhile back.

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/01/types-of-winter-storms-that-impact.html

I’m still expecting a transition to a colder pattern has we get into February. I’ve been talking about this cool down for a few weeks now, you can go back and read my post talking about the evolving solution.

 

[ScottySkis]

Welcome to the end of January. There is no doubt that January was a torch. For most of us, it will generally rank within the top 10 to top 5 warmest January's, depending on where you are.

Well we made it to Friday. The week has been uneventful. But next week will see things become a bit more active.

Later today/tonight low pressure will form off the Carolina Coast. This will track well south and east of the Mid Atlantic Coast and stay south of the southern New England Coast as it heads out to sea. For Saturday, those along the MAC and I-95 could see a bit of rain, with areas north of the Mason Dixson line in PA seeing a little snow/mix. It’s possible for a few spots to see some freezing rain. Around New York City and the lower Hudson Valley, as well as Long Island, there could be some rain as well. Most of New York State and New England should stay dry, but a few showers could pop up closer to the coast, and especially for the Cape and Offshore Islands. For interior areas widespread rain/mix/ wet snow showers are possible.

A clipper type system will bring a chance for rain/snow showers for Saturday night into Sunday night. Parts of northern New York State and northern New England could see a bit of accumulation, especially in the higher elevations where 1-3 inches of snow would be possible.

Behind the clipper temperatures will rebound for the first part of next week. High pressure builds in and brings us more quiet weather early next week. Monday through Wednesday will see well above average temperatures, then temperatures will start to moderate Thursday and heading into next weekend. By Wednesday, a slow-moving cold front will move into the region. The front looks to stall close to or over New England. Temperatures profiles will be colder behind the frontal boundary. Where the front actually stalls will determine who sees what. We will see several waves of low pressure move along the front, keeping the second half of next week and next weekend unsettled. Rain/mix/snow, with a possibility for at least some freezing rain will be with us during the second half of next week. Again, who sees what will be determined by the frontal location.

 

[ScottySkis]

Ground Hog Day is tomorrow, maybe Punxsutawney can do a better job than most of us have done this winter. The Super bowl is also tomorrow so if you’re going to or having a party have fun.

Today is basically quiet. We have the system to our South and West, and the little clipper system moving into the Great Lakes. I’ve been talking about these for a few days now, they are what I consider nuisance disturbances, so I think I’ve covered them enough.

This coming week

Today has the feel of early spring in the air; the spring like feel will extend into Tuesday, we will see a dusting to 3 inches or so later today and tomorrow across extreme northern Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, much of New York State, and Northern into Central New England.
later Tuesday into the coming weekend, across northern New York State and Northern into Central New England, there is a good likelihood for Snow /sleet/freezing rain from. Everyone else it is most likely a mix/mainly rain event. But exactly who sees what will depend on exactly where the front stalls out. Those areas that see mostly snow could end up seeing quite a bit, as several disturbances move along the frontal boundary for the 2nd half of next week.

Looking ahead

Positive TNH pattern (I explained what the TNH is a couple of weeks back), with an undercutting Jet is usually a good indication of a cold and active snowy setup. But January certainly wasn’t like that. The first half of February is beginning to look iffy too.

The PNA has been positive, but it is looking to go negative again, this would indicate more of a likelihood of ridging in the East. The NAO is looking to go strongly positive (almost off the chart positive) this indicates a strong likelihood of no upstream blocking; as a result, the pattern becomes fast and zonal.

The EPO is heading for neutral, then it is forecast to turn strongly negative. The WPO is looking to go moderately negative as well. This is a signal for colder air trying to push out of Northwest Canada and Alaska. But as I’ve said, the MJO looks to want to go back into phases 5 and 6, so how strong that negatively trend for the EPO is going to be, is in question.

So, for now the cold signal is split in half. But that’s better odds than we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. The ensembles have been trending colder, but the models track record hasn’t been that great lately, but to be fair neither has mine. The pattern has adjusted toward my ideas, when I said it would happen, but not nearly to the extent that I thought would happen. As we get toward Mid-February will that arctic air finely break loose. I strongly believe it well. But I have to temper my ideas, based on the factors I’ve listed above and how the entire winter pattern has unfolded so far.

 

[bdfreetuna]

I liked her forecasts when I was on Facebook, before making the excellent decision to leave the toxic online bullshit echo chamber of narcissistic virtue signalling and varied forms of posturing. Then you realize your data is getting sold to China and other bidders. As Mark Zuckerberg said years ago "They trust me. Dumb fucks!"

Anyway... does she have a normal website where I can keep tabs?

 

[ScottySkis]

I liked her forecasts when I was on Facebook, before making the excellent decision to leave the toxic online bullshit echo chamber of narcissistic virtue signalling and varied forms of posturing. Then you realize your data is getting sold to China and other bidders. As Mark Zuckerberg said years ago "They trust me. Dumb fucks!"

Anyway... does she have a normal website where I can keep tabs?

Yes
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/?m=1

 

[bdfreetuna]

Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here

 

[ScottySkis]

Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here

Up I noticed that while ago +100
Absolutely my plan

 

[ScottySkis]

Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here

As of Sunday afternoon

We have a clipper (really more of a glorified warm front) moving through. This will bring a few rain/snow showers into the region Parts of Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, northern New Jersey into New York State and New England, could see a dusting to an inch or so, of snow/mix. With parts of northern New York State and northern into central New England seeing 1-3 inches of this snow/mix The Tug Hill into the eastern Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches of snow. Southern into Central Pennsylvania, Mid Atlantic and southern New England many will see rain. So no real weather worries, But roads could be a slippery so keep that in mind. So those Super Bowl parties should go off with no weather worries.

Well Punxsutawney says it’s going to be an early spring. I’ve seen Staten Island Chuck and Manchester’s Chuckles the Groundhog said the same thing. I think Considering winter has been a no show for many of us. It makes sense from them to say that. NOAA seems to agree, they show February being quite warm.

It will be warmer tomorrow into Tuesday. Then we turn colder for the 2nd half of the week. It won’t be super cold, but cold enough to produce snow for parts of our region. We will also have a couple areas of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

Tomorrow we will see more sun with temperatures ending around 10 degrees warmer than today. Tuesday will see a cold front slowly approach, it will kick off some rain/snow showers later Tuesday/Tuesday night. Those with the best chance for rain will be across western Pennsylvania, with more in the way of snow/mix in New York State. The front will move into the region on Wednesday, where it will stall. At the same time will see weak to moderate high pressure build down from Canada. The high pressure will allow moderately cold air to filter into New England and New York State. There will be low pressure moving along the front. The northern Mid Atlantic will be on the warm side of the front, so mostly rain for y’all. Rain across western Pennsylvania, will change to a snow/mix Wednesday then snow for Thursday into Friday. For northern Pennsylvania, New York State and New England rain will change over to snow/mix. The farther north and higher up you are the greater your chance for more in the way of snow. As the high pressure gives way snow/mix will change back over to rain/mix.

Thursday night/Friday a stronger wave will work up the East Coast. Northern areas will change from snow over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Southern areas will warm Thursday afternoon, changing over from a mix to primarily rain Thursday night and Friday, rain amounts of one to one and half of an inch are possible. Parts of New York State and northern and Central New England could end up with significant snow accumulation during the entire event and very slippery roads are possible during this event.

The system clears the region by next Saturday afternoon.

 

[ScottySkis]

Here are my first real thoughts on the general P-type as well as a very general basic timeline.

The second half of this week is going to be very active. The region will experience rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. Parts of the I-95 Tri state might get into some of the frozen precipitation as well.

Wednesday Rain across southern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City/long Island much of southern New England. With central Pennsylvania, having the best chance for a sleet/freezing rain mix. Right not it looks to be light to at times moderate snow across Western Pennsylvania (north of Pittsburgh), western New York State, as well as the southern tier north to around the Mohawk Valley, northern Connecticut, Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire. Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire look to see next to nothing, but there could be a bit of mix. Eastern Maine could see some snow, while western Maine sees next to nothing.

High pressure will move to our north, this is going to allow cold air to try and filter into the region. Low Pressure will also be moving north and east along the frontal boundary. The low will be pulling in a lot of moisture. As we get into Thursday rain is likely for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic, lower Hudson Valley, most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts.

Thursday morning, cold air looks to get trapped close to the surface. For those south of the Mohawk Valley into the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley (perhaps even Albany) Northeast Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, northern Connecticut, and southern Massachusetts temperatures will most likely be just below freezing. This will lead to the possibility for an extend period of freezing rain. Areas north of I-90 in New York State extreme northern Massachusetts, and northern New England, moderate to at times heavy snow will be possible.

Friday will see the low pressure moving over the Mid-Atlantic and close to Southern New England. Snow for Northwest Pennsylvania, much of New York State (with the exception of southeast New York State and the Hudson Valley, most of Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern and central Maine, everyone else will see rain/mix. The farther south and east you, the greater your chance of seeing just a cold rain.

Saturday will see lingering wintery precipitation with brisk winds. Sunday into Monday we will likely be dealing with another storm.

I will post more as the picture gets clearer.....This is based on what things look like at this time.....but things can change.

 

[ScottySkis]

Later today into tomorrow, we have a storm, bringing snow from Texas into the Great Lakes. For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High pressure will move into Northern New England on Wednesday allowing for a dip in temperatures a couple of waves will move north and east into our region for the 2nd half of this week.

The storm will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, and a warm front will move up the coast. How far north the front gets will be a key as to where the most snow falls. Initially, the air will be cold enough for an icy mix and snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across our southern areas into Northwest New Jersey. right now, these areas most likely will see a lull for Thursday afternoon as temperatures warm, rain returns for Thursday evening /night. Rain should change over to light snow for your Friday.

All of this will work North and east for our Thursday. This sleet/freezing rain risk extends into, western, southern, and central New York as well as the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island. North of these areas more in the way of snow/with some mix possible. These areas will most likely experience a short lived break before the second wave brings back the precipitation.

These two waves won’t be major snow producers. Northern into central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York State south of I -90 and north and west of New York City and Long Island, Southern New England northward into Southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire a Dusting to 3 inches of snow will be possible by Friday. Areas around Portland and Maine's coastal plain, most likely will see around the same. New York State north of I-90, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire into the rest of Maine 3-6 inches of snow, with perhaps a couple inches or so above that for the mountains.
Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, most of New Jersey, New York City and along the southern New England coast this will be mostly rain, with some mixing at times.

 

[ScottySkis]

Not much has changed from my earlier post........Here are the highlights.

The 2nd wave's track has shifted a little to the south and east.

Winter Weather Advisories are posted for most of Pennsylvania, New York State (northern and west of New York City), and southern and central New England. There are Winter Storm Watches for far northern and northeast New York State to Northern New England.

Ice accumulation for areas north and west of New York City and Philadelphia…. southeast into northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey of up to a quarter of an inch, with perhaps some higher amounts are possible. The Poconos, Catskills, Hudson Valley Highlands and Interior Connecticut could also see ice accretion like this.

Heavy rain for Southern New England and the Middle Atlantic Region, total rain amounts of up to three inches are possible. Don’t be surprised if a few thunderstorms pop up in these regions as well. The SPC has a marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania, and into southern New Jersey.

The 2nd piece of energy (Main wave) track has shifted south and east.

Most of the snow will be in Northwest Pennsylvania, western and upstate New York, and northern into central New England.

Here is a map showing my general ideas for the entire event. This could change as I get a better handle on the track of the main piece of energy.

 

[ScottySkis]

A major storm is developing and will impact the Northeast and the northern Middle Atlantic region. With interior areas dealing with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow, heavy rains for the coast, with severe weather in the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

Here is a look at the current Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. There are also flood watches up for New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and points south.

Earlier I posted my first thoughts on total snowfall amounts. Those amounts might have to be adjusted depending on the actual track the main wave takes. But at least for now, the NWS is in general agreement with my earlier map…here is my earlier map. I have adjusted some of the numbers (but these adjustments are minor) Remember all of this snow won’t come down all at once…. It will be over a 36-48 hour time frame. I admit there are outlets calling for higher amounts. But I'm trying to take a realistic and conservative approach.

Northeast PA, into New York State and southern New England will be dealing with ice. But I don’t see it being a major ice storm, temperatures just don’t look cold enough for that. Moderate temperatures and upper air dynamics doesn’t look all that impressive. But 0.25-0.35 of an inch is enough to still cause a lot of issues.

I will post an update, and if needed a new snowfall map tomorrow morning….(If I do, I will include county lines)

Have a great night.

 

[ScottySkis]

Sorry for not posting this earlier, but my husband built me a new shoe rack with attached drawers for jewelry and my scrunchies in my closet. So, I’ve been reorganizing my closet, which is a huge job. Anyway……. Looking at this week.

This coming week will see a series of waves of low pressure heading eastward with the strongest of them moving through mid to late week. Each one brings rain and some snow eastward. I will also touch on the long-range weather pattern.

The first wave will bring rain/snow tonight. Most places that start out as snow, will change over to rain. Northern New York State and northern Vermont into Maine will see more in the way of snow. The front is going to stall along the Coast into New England. Another weak wave will move through later Monday into Tuesday, marginal temperatures will see similar results. Then we will see the third wave move north and east to the west of the front. There will be cold air trying to approach. Timing will determine who sees what, but I think this will be similar to our Friday event, at least as to the areas most likely to see snow amounts greater than 6 inches. So those areas in the snow drought look to miss out once again. ……. Looking out into the future!

The pattern has been wrong and it continues to look wrong moving forward. This has been a strange winter, it started out great for most of us. But then from Christmas to last week It was dismal .

In this type of pattern, for a snowstorm to occur in the I-95 corridor, everything has to have everything line up perfectly. If we get the right setup, there can be monster storms. But these windows of opportunity will be fleeting IMO. The storm that just went through, was an example of how things can happen if things line up right. I ended up seeing 18 inches, Malone to Newport VT down to near Plattsburgh saw 17- near two feet of snow. Spencertown 21.5", Newburgh 13.5. There were reports of 3-5 inches falling over parts of the Tri-State with amounts of 5-nearly 12 inches for parts of Northern Pennsylvania. Not a block buster, but better than we’ve seen in a while.

We haven’t seen real arctic highs set up shop driving sustained cold air into our region. Every time we had a system that was accompanied with a lot of moisture the air was too warm and the results were not good for snow. That strong polar vortex which has been strong for the last 6 to 8 weeks is being attacked by warm air, there is a slight weakening occurring in the vortex. But I doubt it is going to weaken enough to bring cold air into North America. It will most likely move back to the other side of the pole where it has mostly been since Christmas.

From here on I use a lot of acronyms; but I’ve used them and explained them in depth in the past, so most of y’all should have an understanding of them. But if you need something cleared up, just ask.

We’ve had a very progressive pattern, but other than the Friday/Saturday big storm we have little to show for it. Without blocking these storms just don't linger enough to produce big snow storms. The Pacific is starting to look more and more unfavorable. The cold SST spot the Gulf of Alaska is warming In the ENSO region of the Pacific, region 1 and 2 are cooler, with the areas to the west warming. The SOI has been negative a lot this winter; but the MJO and other teleconnections like the IOD have resisted any attempt to a colder pattern. The latest CFS plume is showing cooling in the ENSO region. The EPO is looking to stay primarily positive. Both the MJO and the NAO don’t look to be cold friendly moving forward. The Southeast Ridge is going to continue to be problem as the battle between the northern and southern streams continues.

 

[ScottySkis]

This week is going to feature an active pattern. Today is going to turn mild as a fast-moving clipper moves through, bring a couple of fronts through the region. Here is a look at current radar with frontal positions. The clipper brought a trace to 3 inches to Northern New York State, with the higher elevations ending up with 3-6+ inches. Northern into Central New England will see the same general idea. Northeast New England can expect scattered rain/snow showers for the rest of today. Those in Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania, I-95 and Mid Atlantic and Southern New England rain (heavy at times) The front is going to stall. This frontal boundary will be the focus of our weather, for the next few days.

Late tonight and tomorrow, another wave of low pressure will ride north and east along the frontal boundary. The low will move across Virginia and then out to sea. Rain is likely for southwest Pennsylvania especially for those along and south of I-70. For the lower Hudson Valley, southern New England, Eastern Pennsylvania, I-95 and Middle Atlantic Region rain showers, with areas in Southeast New York State (south of Albany), and along the Connecticut and Massachusetts border seeing a mix, before changing over to rain showers.

Southern New Hampshire into Southern and Central Maine a mix is likely, especially closer to the coast. For those north of Pittsburgh, the farther north you go the less chance you see any rain. Western/ Northern New York, Vermont, northern New Hampshire and Northern Maine, should end up with a quiet day tomorrow into Wednesday. High pressure builds in behind this storm.

For late Wednesday into Friday, low pressure will develop in the Southwest US. This will move east and then north and east across Pennsylvania and Southern New England. This track would mean rain for most of Pennsylvania, I-95 and Southern New England. With mix/snow across New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those in northern New York State and Northern New England, have the best chance of seeing several inches of snow. So the rich get richer and the poor don’t.

Behind the end of week storm, very cold air comes in to the region just in time for Valentine’s Day

 

[ScottySkis]

Looking at radar, we can see our current weather maker getting ready to depart. The Satellite image shows our next system sitting over Texas. Behind the departing wave of low pressure, slightly colder air will work into the region. This setup will allow for snow for Upstate NY and Northern New England with mix/rain for the rest of our region.

As our next storm approaches. This storm will be similar to our storm last week, but it won’t be as strong or impactful. It looks like, rain for most of Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic Region. Northern Pennsylvania should start out with some snow, but this will change over to a mix and then rain. Southern New York State into areas just south of I-90 some snow/mix and rain. But snow accumulations should be fairly light. Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York, along and north of I-90 and northern New England look to see a general 3-8 inches with localized higher amounts possible.

Very cold arctic air moves in for Friday and Saturday and then temperatures should rebound for Sunday and Monday. Another system will move into the Upper Great Lakes early next week. This will allow for snow/rain for our region. With the marginal cold, northern areas will have the best chance of any accumulating snows. With rain for everyone else.