Rebecca very reliable Facebook weather forecasters

[ScottySkis]

This is later than I wanted to post this. But earlier I was driving home, when some guy pulled out of his driveway, are hit my Land Rover. I’m OK and so is Bryant. My SUV didn’t fare too bad, but the back fender and rear door were damaged, and my rear fairing was torn. The guys girlfriends car had a lot of front end damage.

Anyway, Today was windy. Tomorrow will feature a brisk northwesterly flow, but it will be warm and basically dry.

Two waves of energy will be approaching and moving through of Friday. The first will be over the Great Lakes; the second will be moving north and east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. As I’ve been saying these pieces of energy won’t fully phase, but there will be a little interaction between the two. Both of these will be moving at a good clip as well. All of that along with moderate temperatures, doesn’t spell big snow storm. Winds will be very gusty for Friday. Colder air will wrap around the backside of the system Friday night, this is when Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, up into Connecticut, could see a trace to an inch or so, with areas like the Poconos and higher elevations in Northwest New Jersey end up with possibly 1-3 inches of snow.

For the NYS Southern tier up to Buffalo, Syracuse, and Albany up to an inch or so of snow is expected. For those higher elevations, south and east of Syracuse and south of the Mohawk Valley around 1-3 inches will be possible by Friday night. The same thing looks to occur for Massachusetts into southern Vermont and New Hampshire an inch is possible for places like Boston. Across northern New York State and Northern New England 2-5 inches is possible, with perhaps a bit more in the higher elevations by Saturday morning. The models are hinting at a possible surprise for the Tri-State, this area could pick up more snow than is apparent at this time

The weekend looks to be basically dry. Mild conditions will stick around for Monday and Tuesday. Before a strong shot of cold air tries to invade our region for mid next week.

 

[ScottySkis]

On satellite the two disturbances can easily be seen. These two will start to interact to far south and east to bring the Northeast a big storm. A coastal storm will develop off the North Carolina Coast. From here it will move north and east and pass well to the south and east of the northern Mid Atlantic and New England. The coastal looks to pass south of Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday. So, the coastal will only bring a very minimal impact for us here in our region. But we will see snow/mix rain from the northern system as it rotates through. The northern clipper component will transfer to the coastal, as the coastal intensifies south and east of Cape Cod. The coastal storm is going to have a large wind field. So, it will be windy along the Coast, especially over the Cape and Islands. The Cape and Offshore Islands look to see wind gust as high as 45-55 mph Friday night into Saturday morning. But the entire region will see gusty winds later Friday into Saturday.

As far as accumulating snow, this system isn’t going to be a big snowmaker. Most of Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey will see mainly rain that will mix over to a bit of snow. These areas will see a trace to as much as an inch. But the higher elevations south and east of Pittsburgh; as well as those higher elevations across the Poconos and northeast Pennsylvania, and far northwestern New Jersey could see 1-2 inches. The valleys and lower elevations of much of New York State will see a trace to an inch. With the exception of northern areas, the higher could see 1-3 inches of snow. Places like the Tug Hill and Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches

Connecticut, into much of Massachusetts, seacoast of New Hampshire and in the coastal plain of Maine could see a trace to an inch of snow. With higher elevations in Northwest Massachusetts southern Vermont and New Hampshire seeing 1-3 inches. Parts of the Greens and Whites could see 2-5 inches of snow.

There will be some lake effect on the backside of the system. But nothing remotely like the last event.

 

[ScottySkis]

Our Clipper is dropping out of the Lakes, with the Coastal storm off the Carolina Coast. The Coastal is going to move north and east and interact with the Clipper. When this happens, the storm is going to rapidly intensify (Bomb). There is going to be a Norlun (inverted) trough over the Mid-Atlantic Region back into southeast and central Pennsylvania. This is going to further complicate the setup, a Norlun trough can focus and lift moisture to form intense and persistent snow squalls. But it’s hard to know exactly where the bands will setup beforehand. Those under the NT can expect to see burst of heavy precipitation. P-type will depend on temperature, precipitation rate, and elevation. For the Mid Atlantic back into Pennsylvania, rain should be the prevailing precipitation type. But the NT could throw a monkey wrench into all of that.

General snow accumulation is going to be minimal for most of y’all, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast will see a trace to an inch, with the higher elevations seeing 1-3 inches. The high elevations in northern New York State and northern New England could see 2-5 inches of accumulation. possible by midnight. For those in Southeast Massachusetts, Cape, and Offshore Islands several inches of snow will be possible.

Winds will increase later today, staying gusty into Saturday. Along the coast seas will be very choppy.

Sunday we warm up in a big way. Monday into Tuesday will see even warmer temperatures. Later Tuesday into Wednesday it will be a bit unsettled. The 2nd half of next week is looking to be mild as well.

 

[ScottySkis]

A quick look at the week ahead

The next couple of days, will be very spring like. No major storms for this week in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region.

Today is going to be warm, the warming trend will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for Monday, will be from the upper 50’s in northern areas, to the low to mid 70’s in our southern areas. While there are no major storms on the horizon, we will see 3 weak to moderate systems come through this week. The first will be on Tuesday and another two for later Wednesday and Friday.

For Tuesday, the warm southwesterly flow will continue for Tuesday, ahead of an area of fast moving low pressure and an associated cold front. We could see a few afternoon/evening showers Monday night, but most of the rain/mix will accompany the cold front on Tuesday. There won’t be any real cold air behind the front but in spite of that, the rain showers very well could end as snow showers Tuesday overnight, across northern New York State and northern New England, especially in the higher elevations. If this tracks farther south than expected, there will be a chance for some snow showers that extend into southern New England, and farther south in Pennsylvania.

Some of the precipitation could extend into early Wednesday. But Wednesday should end up mostly sunny and dry. We will be watching a storm system approaching our region from the west. Later Wednesday into early Thursday, we will see scattered rain showers, with the higher elevations having a chance to see snow/mix showers. Most of Thursday should be mild and nice. showers and mountain snow showers. Later Thursday and Friday, another system will bring rain and higher elevation snow showers. This could stick around into Saturday morning,

GFS images are from Pivotal Weather

 

[ScottySkis]

Current spring outlook

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2020/03/my-spring-outlook.html?m=1




This is later than I normally post the spring outlook. But every time I would start to work on it something came up. But beyond that, I’ve been going back and forth with the idea of even posting one at all. More than a few of Y’all used my winter outlook as cannon fodder, making me feel like a long tailed cat in a room of rocking chairs. But I’ve decided to go ahead and post it……

 

[ScottySkis]

High pressure is making for a nice day today across the entire East Coast. But our active and fast-moving pattern continues. There are several systems to watch, but no major storms are expected.

Our last system has moved away. Now we’re watching our next system approach from the Mississippi Valley. This system is going to weaken as it moves east. The center of this looks to move over Virginia and North Carolina. Most of the rain from this system will stay to our South, with the weakening system any precipitation will be widely scattered . There is a chance for isolated rain showers across Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. While a few very isolated rain showers are possible across the New York State Southern Tier, most of New York State and New England will stay dry today.

Tomorrow is looking mainly dry, but an offshore flow will keep clouds overhead, with a chance for very spotty sprinkles. But the vast majority of us won’t see any rain at all.

Our system for later Thursday and Friday is currently over the northern Plains. This system is accompanied by a strong cold front. Rain will break out west to east starting Thursday night. The rain and most likely a few thunderstorms will continue to move east during the day on Friday. We should see a line with embedded thunderstorms approach out of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes 5-6 am. The line will move quickly, but 2 to 3 hours of rain, sometimes heavy can be expected, gusty winds will accompany this system as well. I can’t rule out a couple thunderstorms being on the strong side across southern Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic. Behind the front, colder air will move in. The quick nature of the front will help keep rain totals down. Right now, rain totals of as much as 0.25” to 0.50” with locally higher amounts is possible. Temperatures behind the front will quickly drop. Across Upstate New York and northern New England, rain will transition over to snow showers, especially in the higher elevations Friday evening/night. Snow accumulation looks light for most, but a moderate accumulation is possible for parts of northern New York State and northern New England, this is especially true for northwest Maine.

Right now, the weekend is looking seasonally cool and mainly dry. Saturday will still feature some gusty winds. But there is a stream of moisture moving into the Southwest CONUS, this will have to be watched, for any possible rain threat to our weekend.

If you haven't read my Spring Outlook, I encourage you to do so.

 

[ScottySkis]

Looking ahead:

This progressive pattern will continue as we move into Mid-March. Low pressure frontal and cold high pressure systems will move through, with nothing blocking them they will move out, keep colder air transitory.

Touching back on my Spring Outlook. I talked about the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) teleconnection indices and a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event.

The AO is still looking to turn negative as we move through the next couple of weeks. The NAO is also looking to turn neutral to negative. The EPO has been the major driver in our pattern over the last several months. The EPO has been mostly positive during winter 2019-2020; But as with the AO and NAO, the EPO is looking to go strongly into a cold negative phase. This is a good sign that March into April will be rocky, with a chance for several shots of colder air to try and invade our region.

The sun is returning to the arctic, every spring this means we will see the power vortex break down. The models are keying in on the idea for an SSW occurring. Here is a current look at the 10mb arctic temperature and a look at the 10mb arctic temperature in 10 days. You can see a lot of warming over the Pole. The model is showing the displaced colder air is shoved south over North America. This is a good indicator that Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS could see a few outbreaks of colder northern air.

I expect to see occasional colder outbreaks over the next two to four weeks. So don’t put those cold weather clothes away just yet.