Ding! ding! Ding! ADK Snow alert for Wednesday

[billski]

Yeah, it's only two inches and yeah, it's mixin with rain, but it seems as if Ullr is finally coming to battle. You go Ullr!

A little tease for SVT (see map). I'll wait to see how BTV checks in, they are usually much more reliable.

 

[Nick]

I should go post up on SkiADK :lol:

 

[o3jeff]

I should go post up on SkiADK :lol:

Please don't wake anyone up while you are in there!

 

[noski]

<Yawn.> MRV has a Winter Storm Watch for 4-8" Weds night.

 

[nekweather]

Looks like Wednesday's event is going to be a high elevation snowfall

Latest trends from the European model offer a colder solution with a potent surface low tracking further south, allowing a better chance for accumulating snow across the higher elevations of the North Country. As of right now it looks like the onset will be late Tuesday evening with the majority of precipitation overspreading the area Wednesday in the form of rain. Given the current forecast track combined with temperatures at the surface and aloft, the onset will be a mix of sleet/snow/rain - but primarily snow for the mountains then switching to rain during the day Wednesday. Rain then changes back to a rain/snow mix late Wednesday afternoon - to all snow for the mountains as cold air surges in along the backside of the system. As for accumulations - lower elevations will see little if any accumulation, whereas given the QPF of 1.00 to 1.25, it will likely translate into 4-8" maybe + of heavy wet snow for the higher elevations. I would surmise Jay Peak has a good shot given it's northwesterly fetch and magical ability to squeeze every flake out...we'll see if this verifies...nonetheless - Jay and Stowe should get a nice helping hand from mother nature in their snow-making operations...

NWS in Burlington has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* as of 2:55 EDT Details can be found at http://www.nekweather.net/AtomAdvisories.php?zone=VTZ003#WL0

Northeast Kingdom Weather

 

[billski]

Latest trends from the European model offer a colder solution with a potent surface low tracking further south, allowing a better chance for accumulating snow across the higher elevations of the North Country. As of right now it looks like the onset will be late Tuesday evening with the majority of precipitation overspreading the area Wednesday in the form of rain. Given the current forecast track combined with temperatures at the surface and aloft, the onset will be a mix of sleet/snow/rain - but primarily snow for the mountains then switching to rain during the day Wednesday. Rain then changes back to a rain/snow mix late Wednesday afternoon - to all snow for the mountains as cold air surges in along the backside of the system. As for accumulations - lower elevations will see little if any accumulation, whereas given the QPF of 1.00 to 1.25, it will likely translate into 4-8" maybe + of heavy wet snow for the higher elevations. I would surmise Jay Peak has a good shot given it's northwesterly fetch and magical ability to squeeze every flake out...we'll see if this verifies...nonetheless - Jay and Stowe should get a nice helping hand from mother nature in their snow-making operations...

NWS in Burlington has issued a *Winter Storm Watch* as of 2:55 EDT Details can be found at http://www.nekweather.net/AtomAdvisories.php?zone=VTZ003#WL0

Northeast Kingdom Weather

What you're saying is, take a boat to the slopes, then take your skis up high!

 

[nekweather]

Exactly Mr. Billski! Thanks for posting the expected snowfall graphic - I was waiting to see that come out - looks like 4 along the spine - hoping Jay's orographic lift will enhance snowfall rates...fingers crossed.

 

[WinnChill]

Yeah, Jay could benefit from the back end of the storm. The S-SE flow on the front end of this system could possibly help K-ton if mixing doesn't tamp things down....possibly Stowe and MRG....Snow/Okemo/Bromley/Stratton may be too far in the mixing. The strongest dynamics look to develop and pass through the Whites and ME, so perhaps Bretton/Black/Waterville may do better. Attitash would be in prime position but they have NW facing slopes. Should be fun to track!

 

[billski]

That ALY graphic has a much greater level of detail than ever before. Then again, it seems futile to forecast with that level of precision. As soon as the battle starts, the battle plan is obsolete!

 

[billski]

Ok Winn, open that back channel up to Ullr and see what he can do to keep it cold up there

 

[Glenn]

NWS says 8-12" of snow for the Southern Greens. Fingers crossed.

 

[nekweather]

A few morning updates....

A few updates - Morning analysis is showing the strong ridge of high pressure is going to pancake and hang in there a little longer than initially expected. European model continues to agree with the GFS remarkably well and has the low deepening quite impressively by midday Wednesday. Explosive development of the low will allow the system to draw more cold air from the north and keep snow going, especially above 2500 feet. Below 2500 feet, I'm still thinking it's a coin toss - some areas may see 1-3" of snow, while others may see more of a mix to plain cold rain. For you skier and riders I know your concerned only with the white stuff. This will be no powder machine - but a great storm to put down a nice base layer of heavy wet snow, which we never got last year. Temperatures above 2500-3000 feet will support all snow and given the QPF estimates, that could translate to 6-12" along the spine of the Green's up to Stowe. As for Jay, I mentioned this yesterday - they have the advantage of being furthest to the north, benefiting from that northwesterly fetch. Jay Peak could make out pretty damn well with 8 to upwards of 18" of snow -especially as the storm wraps up and backside up-slope flow fires up the "Jay Cloud". That's the way it's looking this morning - but I'll say it again, this forecast is teetering on a bust. Sleet and/or plain rain mixing in or a more southerly track will drastically reduce snowfall accumulations - if we were in the middle of December it would be a no brain er 6-12". Either way - Wednesday should be a wild weather day for most of New England. Enjoy It! :beer:

Northeast Kingdom Weather
www.nekweather.net

 

[billski]

thanks nek! I like terms like "explosive" and "base builder". Besides, I'll be tied up with Thanksgiving and leaves the rest of this week!

Happy Turkey day!

 

[Glenn]

Great post nekweather!

 

[drjeff]

The snow sounds good, but what we also need is for the COLD to get in here and stick around. The way that its seeming now is that it likely won't just be "flip a switch" and here's winter, but it's going to take a series of cold fronts/storms to pass through and piece by piece knock fall out of here and get into the COLD air that has already impressively built up over Alaska and the Arctic! Second thing is we still have to get the Atlantic cooled off a bit more. There's a bunch of relatively speaking warm water (and associated warmer air) that not only provides plenty of "fuel" for the majority of our East Coast storms, but also can quickly moderate the air column of a storm as it get mixed into the circulation around the center of the low pressure. And right now the overall upper level steering winds seem to keep liking the generally West to East pattern they've been in and having been really preventing a good, extended entrance of the cold stuff off to the North, especially after a storm pulls away and temps moderate

 

[BenedictGomez]

Either way - Wednesday should be a wild weather day for most of New England. Enjoy It! ]

Figures.

No snow all season to this point, and the one massive story will be on the one day I have to travel to Vermont for Thanksgiving! LOL.

Now I'm wondering whether or not I should bring the skis to hit the slopes on Friday (before this news, I wasnt considering bring them), or if even with this 8 inches or so, it still wont be enough to open enough trails to make it worthwhile. Any locals know what kind of a base Smuggs or Jay have at the moment and what that 8 inches could do to open terrain?