Epic and Iconic One Wasatch transit plans revealed

[deadheadskier]

I haven't heard any movement on One Wasatch for years. The whole Epic vs. Ikon makes it even more complicated, if anything.

Also, let's be perfectly clear. One Wasatch is NOT a transportation solution, and isn't billed as such. It's designed to be an experience in the same way that connecting PCMR and Canyons was. Will it lead to more traffic? Probably, but a 50% increase in skier visits? That's ridiculous. I doubt it would lead to anything more than 5-10% incremental traffic in the first year that it's done, if even that, and afterwards people would recognize that it's a novelty. Where is this 50% number coming from?

Look at the size of the 6 mountains that comprise "One Wasatch." Each one is huge. How many people are actually going to go between them? I bet you that if there are stats on how many people cross over from Brighton to Solitude (or vice versa) or Alta to Snowbird (or vice versa) or from Canyons to Park City (or vice versa) it's actually a very small share of ticket holders. Also, think about how much a "One Wasatch" ticket would cost. I guarantee you that if/when One Wasatch is built, it gets some use for the first year or two, and then people forget about it.

Maybe I'm way off base, but like I said earlier, Vail + Breckenridge + Keystone do about 4M visits a season. Under the best driving conditions those areas are two hours from DIA. Up to 4 hours during peak travel times.

The Wasatch areas probably do a bit over 3M visits today. They're all an hour from the airport, maybe 2 under bad traffic conditions?

Those three impossible to interconnect areas in Colorado comprise 9000ish acres of terrain. The seven Wasatch areas are about 16,000 acres that could be easily connected.

Given the closer proximity to the airport + the sheer mass of terrain that would only expand with the interconnect, better annual snow than the Vail areas, YES I do think such a product could draw 4.5-5M skier visits. It would likely be the top skiing destination in North America.

The masses LOVE big. One Wasatch would be twice the size of Whistler. The traffic impact would be much greater than 5-10%



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[BenedictGomez]

Home values in suburban SLC are still about 50-60% less than suburban Wash DC.

Yup, looks like 47% if you go by median home value (which is the correct metric to use). But a 33% increase in just three years is going to leave a mark. Especially given the median household income in that area is south of $60k. Something's going to give, either necessary wage increases are going to eventually come to Utah, or their economic expansion is going to stagnate due to expensive housing putting invisible brakes on the economy, as people will say, "I cant afford to live there". An area that's rapidly growing needs employees as its' #1 currency, the good news is, if job vacancies do begin to soar that should lead to natural wage increases.

 

[crazy]

Maybe I'm way off base, but like I said earlier, Vail + Breckenridge + Keystone do about 4M visits a season. Under the best driving conditions those areas are two hours from DIA. Up to 4 hours during peak travel times.

The Wasatch areas probably do a bit over 3M visits today. They're all an hour from the airport, maybe 2 under bad traffic conditions?

Those three impossible to interconnect areas in Colorado comprise 9000ish acres of terrain. The seven Wasatch areas are about 16,000 acres that could be easily connected.

Given the closer proximity to the airport + the sheer mass of terrain that would only expand with the interconnect, better annual snow than the Vail areas, YES I do think such a product could draw 4.5-5M skier visits. It would likely be the top skiing destination in North America.

The masses LOVE big. One Wasatch would be twice the size of Whistler. The traffic impact would be much greater than 5-10%



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Do you have stats on how much skier visits increased when Whistler and Blackcomb became connected? What about Canyons and Park City? There are plenty of connected European resorts, do you have any data on skier visits before and after specific resorts were connected?

There is so much more to a skier visit than simply the size of the terrain that makes your comparison between Colorado and Utah meaningless. What is the population of the Denver metropolitan area vs. the Salt Lake City metropolitan area? What percentage of people in those metropolitan areas ski? What percent of skier visits are from locals vs. tourists? Which passes are the mountains on (you listed three mountains on the Epic Pass in Colorado, you realize that the 6 resorts in Utah we're talking about are split between Epic and IKON, and further, three of the resorts on IKON are partner resorts and not owned by Alterra)? Further, 2/6 of the Utah resorts are skier only. That means that snowboarders will NOT be able to connect between BCC and LCC in a One Wasatch scenario.

In the absence of more data, your number of increased skier visits is pure conjecture.

 

[deadheadskier]

Of course it's conjecture. Lol This is an internet forum. It's what people do.

I think One Wasatch would bring a massive increase in skier visits. You think it will be minimal and short lived. No one knows until if/when it happens.

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[BenedictGomez]

The skier visits bit is an unknown, but the "short-lived" aspect I strongly disagree with as it flies in the face of pretty much every other type of conferred marketing advantage I can think of. In general, once you have an advantage for X reason, you have an advantage for X reason.

 

[thetrailboss]

Also, let's be perfectly clear. One Wasatch is NOT a transportation solution, and isn't billed as such.

That was one of their many selling points.

And I just went to the website. It has not been updated for a long time.

 

[thetrailboss]

I’m going to leave this here:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2019/03/31/ikon-epic-ski-passes-may/


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[crazy]

From the article (thanks for sharing):

Alta’s Maughan and Ski Utah’s Rafferty would like to see lifts added that allow skiers to travel betweens canyons and over the Wasatch Divide to the Park City resorts.

This move would not only link the Central Wasatch resorts but also enable visitors to travel between these destinations without driving. Past proposals have gotten shelved in the face of opposition from backcountry enthusiasts, but ski industry leaders believe the traffic crisis could lead to a renewed look.

“Is it going to solve the problems?” Rafferty asked. “No, but it might help in a lot of different ways.”

Alta has been conducting informal surveys of drivers parking in the Albion lot, and Maughan was surprised to learn that nearly a third were in rental cars. An equal portion had made the 42-mile drive from Park City.

thetrailboss, although I couldn't find anything on the One Wasatch website that billed it as a transportation solution, Rafferty is clearly doing so here, so I will take back what I said about it not being billed as a transportation solution :beer:. Frankly, I'm very surprised at how many people are driving from Park City to Alta/Snowbird. If that's the case, than perhaps One Wasatch is one small piece in the much larger puzzle about how to solve the transportation issues.

Personally, I see a two-stage problem:

Stage 1: Transportation. Fixing that, however, leads to...

Stage 2: Overcrowding. The Wasatch mountains are going to get more crowded as the population of the Salt Lake Valley grows. Utah has invested a lot of money into marketing to sell Utah as a skiing destination, which when combined with the Epic and IKON passes means that the "secret is out", so to speak, about the quality of Utah skiing and the easy to travel. Finally, the transportation issue is doing a lot (this is my conjecture, feel free to disagree) to decrease demand for skiing in the Wasatch by locals. Remove that barrier, and I bet you that a lot more people would choose to go skiing on the weekends or on powder days who sit them out right now.

The Wasatch mountains are precious and beautiful, but if the resorts don't expand, all of the factors listed above will conspire to make crowding explode. I believe that intelligent expansions that conform to environmental reviews are the way forward. ANY resort expansions will decrease the amount of backcountry terrain available, so groups like Save Our Canyons will come out guns blazing against them, but I believe it's the only way to successfully manage crowding. Let Snowbird expand into Mary Ellen Gulch. Let Nordic Valley become a lot bigger. Let Alta put a lift up on Grizzly Gulch (and by agreeing to that, ensure that Alta continues to let people skin up that terrain free of charge). The vast, vast majority of the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest is undeveloped. You might have to drive a little bit further than the Cottonwoods to find it, but there is so much more pristine terrain than there are backcountry skiers to ski it.

 

[mbedle]

I am pretty sure that the Mountain Accord is the group dealing with the transportation issue and not One Wasatch.

 

[thetrailboss]

I am pretty sure that the Mountain Accord is the group dealing with the transportation issue and not One Wasatch.

Right.

One Wasatch is a proposed project.


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[thetrailboss]

From the article (thanks for sharing):



thetrailboss, although I couldn't find anything on the One Wasatch website that billed it as a transportation solution, Rafferty is clearly doing so here, so I will take back what I said about it not being billed as a transportation solution :beer:. Frankly, I'm very surprised at how many people are driving from Park City to Alta/Snowbird. If that's the case, than perhaps One Wasatch is one small piece in the much larger puzzle about how to solve the transportation issues.

No worries. I recall when Rafferty et al first rolled it out, they were using the transportation angle. But when I looked at the site recently, I saw no mention of that...and as you said they instead had an express comment that this was NOT a transportation solution. Seemed odd.

Now that folks are pissed about traffic, they are once again trotting out that line. Very interesting.

Personally, I see a two-stage problem:

Stage 1: Transportation. Fixing that, however, leads to...

Stage 2: Overcrowding. The Wasatch mountains are going to get more crowded as the population of the Salt Lake Valley grows. Utah has invested a lot of money into marketing to sell Utah as a skiing destination, which when combined with the Epic and IKON passes means that the "secret is out", so to speak, about the quality of Utah skiing and the easy to travel. Finally, the transportation issue is doing a lot (this is my conjecture, feel free to disagree) to decrease demand for skiing in the Wasatch by locals. Remove that barrier, and I bet you that a lot more people would choose to go skiing on the weekends or on powder days who sit them out right now.

The Wasatch mountains are precious and beautiful, but if the resorts don't expand, all of the factors listed above will conspire to make crowding explode. I believe that intelligent expansions that conform to environmental reviews are the way forward. ANY resort expansions will decrease the amount of backcountry terrain available, so groups like Save Our Canyons will come out guns blazing against them, but I believe it's the only way to successfully manage crowding. Let Snowbird expand into Mary Ellen Gulch. Let Nordic Valley become a lot bigger. Let Alta put a lift up on Grizzly Gulch (and by agreeing to that, ensure that Alta continues to let people skin up that terrain free of charge). The vast, vast majority of the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest is undeveloped. You might have to drive a little bit further than the Cottonwoods to find it, but there is so much more pristine terrain than there are backcountry skiers to ski it.

All good points. Locals are complaining about the Ikon, but you are right that the underlying issue is that there are MORE people here and more are visiting. The traffic, or better yet a mediocre or bad season, may put a damper on crowds. The alcohol laws are also preventing some from coming to Utah.

As to the expansions, the ski areas, by and large, agreed not to expand beyond their current "boundaries". But that does include the Mary Ellen expansion and Grizzly Gulch because both are owned by their respective resorts. Mary Ellen was approved three years ago. I drove to Provo for the hearing and the crowd was very interesting...a lot of ATVer's were upset about lost access. That, as I expected, led Snowbird to have some discussions with them and they came to a compromise. There also was a lot of misinformation as well...mainly with the misconception that Snowbird would build a base area on that side such that American Fork Canyon would get crowded (it already is crowded). Snowbird did have to wait two full years to get data on the groundwater and nearby rivers because that is a major watershed. What a lot of folks don't realize is that Snowbird over the past 20 years or so has done a lot to clean up that area and make the water quality better than it was.

Another interesting tidbit: I have spent a lot of time at Brighton this season and decided to do some digging on what their "plans" were at one time. Very interesting stuff. In 1991 they wanted to expand over the backside into Midway with a new base area over there. They proposed two fixed grip lifts, including one named "the Heber Lion" and another called the "Yellow Jacket." At the top of Crest was supposed to be a restaurant/lodge. Of the five scenarios or so, one can see that one of the most conservative options (Great Western, Snake Creek area, no Heber side development) was adopted by the USFS.

https://books.google.com/books?id=f...RAB#v=onepage&q=brighton crest express&f=true

 

[kingslug]

Yup, looks like 47% if you go by median home value (which is the correct metric to use). But a 33% increase in just three years is going to leave a mark. Especially given the median household income in that area is south of $60k. Something's going to give, either necessary wage increases are going to eventually come to Utah, or their economic expansion is going to stagnate due to expensive housing putting invisible brakes on the economy, as people will say, "I cant afford to live there". An area that's rapidly growing needs employees as its' #1 currency, the good news is, if job vacancies do begin to soar that should lead to natural wage increases.

This is what has kept me from moving there. Huge paycut and housing expenses, etc. And now I've read its the 3rd most toxic state in the country...oy. I'll keep visiting though.

 

[thetrailboss]

This is what has kept me from moving there. Huge paycut and housing expenses, etc. And now I've read its the 3rd most toxic state in the country...oy. I'll keep visiting though.

A correction is looming. FWIW wages for me and my wife are actually quite good here. Better than VT. Obviously not CA or NY levels, but neither are our taxes.

 

[abc]

This is what has kept me from moving there. Huge paycut and housing expenses, etc. And now I've read its the 3rd most toxic state in the country...oy. I'll keep visiting though.

I guess it depends on the profession.

My colleague just moved from NYC to Salt Lake a couple month (software engineer). The pay cut was like 20%, if even that (better benefit). If housing is still 40% down from NYC. That's a net gain, a significant "real" income boost at that.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Stage 2: Overcrowding. The Wasatch mountains are going to get more crowded as the population of the Salt Lake Valley grows.

That's the front, and yes, the boom is insane. But it's not just the front, I took a drive today east of Park City to Kamas, Francis, Woodland, to Heber City and Midway back to Park City. Basically, everywhere you can fit Townhouses and single family homes, that's happening. Also, lots of "Single Family Homes" or "Townhouses/Condos" Coming Soon signs on recently sold farm/ranch lots. It was truly staggering. Dang near everywhere on the Wasatch back you can build, they're building.

This is what has kept me from moving there. Huge paycut and housing expenses, etc. And now I've read its the 3rd most toxic state in the country...oy. I'll keep visiting though.

Not sure I buy the "toxic" bit, unless that's referring to inversions on the Wasatch front / SLC maybe? The housing expense thing is real though, economically speaking, it's seems near irrational to me, because the wages are definitely do not seem supportive of $480,000 to $650,000 homes, which you see an awful lot of it appears. Unless many folks here are comfortable and/or used to being house poor? I dunno.

 

[BenedictGomez]

My colleague just moved from NYC to Salt Lake a couple month (software engineer). The pay cut was like 20%, if even that (better benefit). If housing is still 40% down from NYC. That's a net gain, a significant "real" income boost at that.

The "NYC area" is a huge region, so it's tough to know what you're referring to, but housing is nowhere near 40% down from the NYC area, unless by "NYC" you're referring to Manhattan or perhaps a few select areas of Brooklyn and maybe some of the wealthier Jersey suburbs. In fact, houses are just as expensive here as some wealthy NYC commuter areas. Of course, this is a very complicated subject, because, IMO, the high taxes are placing a lid on home values in some parts of NJ & CT, so the variables do muddy the water somewhat. For instance, I grew up in a very modest home with 5 bedrooms, built in 1979. The taxes on that modest home today are $12,500, which in my mind, is complete insanity. You dont have that in Utah as property taxes are very low.

 

[kingslug]

This is where I read about the toxin levels: https://www.forbes.com/sites/priceo...d-least-toxic-places-in-america/#64c6468c4ac1

disturbing...
My wife could not even find her job description in SLC..she needs to work at the corporate office of any company. Me..the pay cut is at least 50%.

 

[thetrailboss]

This is where I read about the toxin levels: https://www.forbes.com/sites/priceo...d-least-toxic-places-in-america/#64c6468c4ac1

disturbing...
My wife could not even find her job description in SLC..she needs to work at the corporate office of any company. Me..the pay cut is at least 50%.

Looking at that article quickly, it looks like the reason is Kennecott Copper/Rio Tinto's mine down in Bingham Canyon. FWIW I think it has drastically cut back production if not curtailed operations because of the cost of copper. I may be wrong though.

 

[Salomon]

Looking at that next gen appetite suppressants article quickly, it looks like the reason is Kennecott Copper/Rio Tinto's mine down in Bingham Canyon. FWIW I think it has drastically cut back production if not curtailed operations because of the cost of copper. I may be wrong though.

Is it that bad? Man, that sucks...

 

[kingslug]

Hope things get cleaned up..looks like Alaska got ruined..