First Snowfalls, Upcoming weather and Storms of winter 2022-2023. Storm snow totals, Observations and Predictions?

[KustyTheKlown]

the gfs also packs a punch on the back-end. I'm not giving up hope yet!

 

[SnowRock]

I’m hoping northern vt can eek out some front end and a back end thump to at least help

 

[cdskier]

This is what happens when people start talking about storms too early and saying things like "looks like this will be the year to break the holiday curse". That jinxed it...

That said, there is still time for things to change. The energy for this storm should only be coming onshore out west today so then it will be better sampled and give the models better data to work with.

 

[MidnightJester]

This is what happens when people start talking about storms too early and saying things like "looks like this will be the year to break the holiday curse". That jinxed it...

That said, there is still time for things to change. The energy for this storm should only be coming onshore out west today so then it will be better sampled and give the models better data to work with.

Mother nature and Ullr will do what they do where they do it unless we can hack that Govt weather modification satellite with Musk's help : ) hehehhe

That being said I am liking the active jet streams and systems dragging both across and up the states. Winter is looking bright for snow lovers and its not even winter yet. We have had I think 2 or 3 very late or after hurricane season systems form and gone so this is a very different year so far for weather patterns with the triple dip La-Nina and the sun doing its thing.

The recent Volcano activity this year is also throwing some X factors into the weather patterns worldwide

January's Hunga Tonga Eruption Causes Significant Cooling Event in the Stratosphere, Might Affect This Winter and the Next

The Hunga Tonga eruption in January caused a significant cooling event in the Stratosphere. An expert explains how this might affect the current winter season and the next.

www.natureworldnews.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/05/volcano-eruption-tonga-record-climate/

Volcanoes, La Nina, And Other Factors For Winter Commodities (NYSEARCA:UNG)

What is a negative NAO index and how it could affect winter weather? Second half of December should be cold and snowy for the eastern U.S. and Europe. Click here to learn more.

seekingalpha.com

 

[machski]

Incoming pre-Christmas storm not looking too good for the North East as a whole this weekend. If it comes in as it is looking Its going to lock in a frozen base if the 1/2 to inch of rain comes in followed by the teens at night with single digit and "minus" Windchill's possible for days. Going to take the next decent storm to make the trails and woods fun and "safer again" because ice and trails are not much fun and woods and ice are zero fun. Grab whatever trails and woods you can till then : )

Lets go snowmakers : )~

After this storm Its looking like the next decent storm with snowmaking till then will allow most mountains to get most Lift areas and trails open by new years it seems now.

Only half an inch of warm liquid? Many of the models I have seen are showing potential of 1.5-2 inches of liquid crap. If that happens with highs spiking towards 50, flooding and rapid water erosion of the snowpack will be concerns. Reminds me of several Christmases ago, the brooks were absolutely raging out of the culvert tubes at SR. Looked apocalyptic, really hope we don't get a replay of that.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

i hate it that i am now considering tremblant for next week. i said i would never go back on a holiday and now i am considering going between xmas and new years. barf. but they should fare better out of this next system than anywhere in new england. i have til 4 pm on 12/24 to cancel my sugarloaf hotel. fuckin a. i really wanted to ski sugarloaf. indecisive. annoyed.

 

[MidnightJester]

So the pre Christmas day storm of 12/22-12/23 (Winter storm Elliott) overnight snow totals from south to north Vermont

MtSnow 3" now rain
Okemo 6" now rain
Killington 7" now rain
Stowe 3" now rain
Smugglers Notch 3" now rain
Jaypeak 2" now rain

Rain totals are already over a inch almost everywhere and approaching 2 inches of rain mid Vermont. Uggggggg

This is going to be a interesting weather mix to throw into the most extreme temperature swings. It is one of the coldest flash freeze swings of the last decade and or century depending on where you live they are claiming.

Our Northeast mountains are going (Snow rain Snow) into terribly cold wind chills and wind gusts. Whoever is the first to testify to the ice skating rink on mountains wins the going at all cost this weekend. Crowds and possibly worst ice condition's for a Christmas weekend in a long time.

 

[skiur]

Snow loss doesn't look to be so bad, and they have 3 days of grooming and snowmaking before the hordes start skiing on Tues. I don't think it will be that bad.

 

[MidnightJester]

Snow loss doesn't look to be so bad, and they have 3 days of grooming and snowmaking before the hordes start skiing on Tues. I don't think it will be that bad.

The Snow loss will be minimal thankfully, The Ice on the trails and in the woods will the issue more then coverage.

 

[skiur]

The Snow loss will de minimal thankfully, The Ice on the trails and in the woods will the issue more then coverage.

The trees and nats are out until we get more snow but most of the hordes that ski Xmas week stay on the groomers which they have time to fix. Things seemed a lot worse 3 days ago, I think we mostly dodged a bullet with this one

 

[MidnightJester]

Killington has shut down all lifts today at 12:30 and lodges at 1:00pm and most other mountains had all types of wind and lift holds. Delayed openings tomorrow most likely.

 

[Kingslug20]

More egg nog is needed...

 

[Kingslug20]

4 inches on my table on the deck...wind is howling.....

 

[MidnightJester]

Most Vermont ski mountains are listing delayed openings and warnings with tough frozen conditions on mountain.

Okemo is warning more then once that everything is frozen and to "be careful" twice. Killington is offering refunds for yesterday and today's conditions (i think) if you made the trip there. There is a link on their website for refunds. Can anyone speak to the level of frozen glaze or layer of ice in the snow around.

Killington was able to Open bear mountains and drop ropes and open 9 new trails from (95 to 104) out of the backend of the storm and the work they did from closing yesterday to opening today. Edit on closing Killington reached 115 trails open currently : ) Now to keep the base into January

 

[MidnightJester]

Stowe, Smugglers and Jay Peak are saying they pulled 8" - 10" of snow out of the last 24hrs with this storm.

 

[skimagic]

Stowe, Smugglers and Jay Peak are saying they pulled 8" - 10" of snow out of the last 24hrs with this storm.

Yeah but is that pre rain or post rain?

 

[skiur]

Definitely dodged a bullet, net positive at K and the skiing actually wasn't that bad today. I'm assuming anyplace north of K had a similar outcome.

 

[MidnightJester]

of snow Yeah but is that pre rain or post rain?

It is like 60%/40% with the 60% coming after the rain or mixed in with it. They had 2"-3" of snow before the change over to rain according to their sites over the last couple of days

 

[Kingslug20]

Tremblant got slammed...power outages..2 feet so far...
This storm is nuts!

 

[Edd]

All things considered, Gunstock is skiing surprisingly well today. Was expecting worse.