Jan 4-5 Event

[billski]

 

[billski]

126 hours

 

[Rowsdower]

Looks like the Adirondacks are going to make out best with this one. Catskills and Greens should get mostly snow with minimal mixing. Pokes will get more mixing and rain.

Looks like another potential system for the 9th/10th, but that's too far for speculation as this point. Temps look like they'll be much colder though.

 

[Tin]

IF this thing even happens...

Thinking of a similar mid-December system last year where it was in the teens to start and then 6-12" later ended as freezing drizzle and in the mid 30s. The bulk of the precip looks to fall in the Saturday afternoon-night window when it will be mid 20s or so. The accumulating stuff should really shut down prior to above freezing temps.

 

[billski]

THIS is the problem

Then it gets cold again

 

[Warp Daddy]

Snow Ridge is supposed ro e buried over te next few days we're talking FEET of snow again according to noon weather report today

 

[lstone84]

Euro, GFS, GFS parallel snow totals through Monday...includes minor accums f/ the next couple days.



Hehehehe


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[lstone84]

Added another model, eh????




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[Not Sure]

One more take FF 4:00

 

[catsup948]

I think if the cold can hold out the weekend storm could have some legs down here. I'm not sold on tons of warmth invading the cold airmass. This could be a heavy front end thump with a flip to sleet/frz/rain then possible backend snow showers. Interesting to see how much snow we get.

 

[catsup948]

IF this thing even happens...

Thinking of a similar mid-December system last year where it was in the teens to start and then 6-12" later ended as freezing drizzle and in the mid 30s. The bulk of the precip looks to fall in the Saturday afternoon-night window when it will be mid 20s or so. The accumulating stuff should really shut down prior to above freezing temps.

This would be great! We got about 10 inches from that storm last season with some freezing rain and sleet at the very end. Similar setup with the cold and over running snow.

 

[ss20]

Go west young man! Gore, Whiteface, Catskills, and the Great Lakes area.

 

[billski]

Josh Fox, MRG, 12/30 blog:
"The upcoming weekend storm continues to look significant and though we have narrowed the outcomes of this considerably there remains some small uncertainty regarding the final track of this storm. The main area of low pressure could travel anywhere between extreme southern Quebec and Massachusetts. There are other questions relating to the evolution of this storm as it interacts with the Atlantic coast as there most always is. That all being said, I am relatively confident that some significant snow should impact northern Vermont early Sunday, accumulate several inches and then possibly change to a sleet/freezing rain mixture and possibly not. I don't think the region has to worry about the "R" word anymore though coastal cities should see that almost exclusively. The possibility of a 8-16 inch powder-fest still exists though and hopefully this outcome wins the day and gets 2015 off to a positive start."

 

[Boston Bulldog]

This has the looks of a classic SWFE (southwest flow event) where we quickly thump6+ inches pretty anomalously before the southwest flow rips in warm air aloft and brings in a dry slot. Tin summarized the scenario perfectly. Northern areas would typically stay all snow in this scenario though due to latitudinal help.The cold high pressure in Canada helps stop this storm from becoming a cutter by modifying the flow and delaying the arrival of the warm air.

If this storm delays or speeds up by a day, it will cut inland and rain. It is imperative that the HP trenches down just as the storm arrives.

Nonetheless, 07-08 had plenty of these events in a similar pattern so this may be the first of many. Early February of last season had a good SWFE that dropped a foot in most places, so the ceiling here is high.

 

[wa-loaf]

Hoping to do Mt Snow on Sunday. Keeping an eye on this!

 

[billski]

Watch out for the wind on the backside of this thing. It could ruin any sort of powderfest.

 

[lstone84]

don't think there's going to be any sort of powder fests after the most recent round of model runs.

 

[Tin]

As of now another "base builder" event with heavy wet stuff ending crunchy. Still a decent amount in the Whites to help get things going again. Places like Mt. Snow, Stratton, and Crotched that were looking at about 6-8" two days ago are now looking like 2-4" and ending near 50 degrees. The warm air will work in early Sunday morning right when the heavy stuff is coming down.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Bad model runs across the board this afternoon. The warm flow arrives faster because the cold HP retreated faster.

 

[VTKilarney]

What are the top one or two websites for a layperson to keep apprised of northeast ski weather?